Wednesday's WASDE report painted a mostly supportive outlook for the cattle and beef markets through 2023. Beef production for 2023 was increased by 75 million pounds as fed- and non-fed cattle slaughter is more aggressive than originally anticipated. For 2024, beef production declined by 25 million pounds as more fed cattle marketings are expected to hit the market in late 2023 than in the first two quarters of 2024.
Quarterly steer prices saw significant price increases from last month as the third quarter is now expected to average $178 (up $5.00 from last month) and the fourth quarter is estimated to average $183 (up $9.00 from last month. In 2024, first quarter steers prices are expected to average $186 (up $4.00 from last month), and the second quarter is expected to average $184. Beef imports for 2023 were increased by 20 million pounds, and exports fell by 10 million pounds. Meanwhile, in 2024, both beef imports and exports remained unchanged from a month ago.
Wednesday's WASDE report shared a mixed outlook for the hog and pork markets. Pork production for 2023 fell by 5 million pounds from last month as slaughter in the second and third quarters of 2023 has been reduced. Pork production in 2024 saw a slight decrease as Prop 12 implications are expected to affect the marketplace.
The USDA WASDE report stated that, "Pork production is reduced as producers indicated intentions to reduce farrowings in the second half of 2023, and lower farrowings are expected to continue in the first half of 2024. However, a more rapid rate of growth in pigs per litter is expected to partly offset the lower farrowings. Nonetheless, smaller-than-previously-expected pig crops in late-2023 and early 2024 will result in a lower pork production forecast."
Quarterly price projections for 2023 and 2024 were increased as supplies remain thin. For the third quarter of 2023, barrow and gilt prices are expected to average $63 (up $3.00 from last month, and fourth quarter prices are expected to average $57 (up $2.00 from last month). In 2024, barrows and gilts are expected to average $63.00 in the first quarter (up $3.00 from last month) and the second quarter is expected to average $68.00.
For 2023, pork imports were increased by 5 million pounds, and pork exports were increased by 110 million pounds as demand continues to remain strong from China and Mexico especially. For 2024, pork imports are unchanged from last month, but exports for 2024 were increased by 160 million pounds.
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