Thursday ended up being mixed market for the livestock contracts as the lean hog contracts did close higher after Wednesday's dramatic fall, but the cattle contracts weren't able to do the same as higher corn prices got in the way. The cash cattle market has still only been lightly tested, meaning that Friday's market will need to see cattle trade. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.78 with a weighted average price of $101.54 on 7,245 head. December corn is up 16 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $9.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 50.53 points.
LIVE CATTLE:All in all, traders decided that the live cattle complex would be "safer" to close modestly lower, but the spot August contract was able to close $0.02 higher. Although traders made note of the pressures in the corn complex and the regression in boxes, they still seem believe that the cash cattle market could prevail as they did keep the spot market green through closing. August live cattle closed $0.02 higher at $176.90, October live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $180.10 and December live cattle closed steady at $183.37. The cash cattle market remains largely untested still as feedlots continue to dig their heels in the ground and fight for steady prices. All throughout the day, live bids of $175 have been offered in Texas and Kansas and dressed bids of $295 were offered in Nebraska. Asking prices in the South are noted at $180 to $182 and are still unestablished in the North.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 127,000 head, steady with a week ago but 3,000 head more than a year ago.
Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that, for the week ending June 25, steers averaged 884 pounds, which is 1 pound more than the previous week and 1 pound more than a year ago. During the same week, heifers averaged 807 pounds, which is 2 pounds heavier than the previous week but 2 pounds lighter than a year ago.
Beef net sales of 9,900 mt for 2023 were down 42% from the previous week and 28% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (3,200 mt) Taiwan (1,600 mt) and China (1,400 mt).
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $4.07 ($306.91) and select down $0.92 ($280.18) with a movement of 149 loads (82.66 loads of choice, 35.06 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 30.78 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. At this point, feedlots have proven that they aren't willing to let cattle go for cheaper money. Now, whether or not they'll be able to pull the market higher remains unknown at this point. But either way, you've got to commend the fighting nature of the cash cattle market.
FEEDER CATTLE:The feeder cattle complex continued to trade lower through Thursday's end as the $0.17 to $0.43 rally in the corn complex was simply too much for feeders to bare. The corn market's back-and-forth nature was driven by Wednesday's Crop Progress report and traders had to lick their wounds as they come to terms with Wednesday's report being fickle given how early in growing season the crops still are. But until farmers are closer to harvesting their corn, the feeder cattle complex will be subject to pressure like this as traders try to gain a better understanding of what this year's crop is going to amount to, and how that could affect the cattle complex. August feeders closed $1.57 lower at $245.00, September feeders closed $1.95 lower at $247.32 and October feeders closed $2.25 lower at $248.57. At Mitchell Livestock Auction in Mitchell, South Dakota, compared to their last sale two weeks ago, feeder steers up to 1,000 pounds traded significantly higher, steers weighing 1,000 to 1,100 pounds traded $8.00 to $15.00 higher. Heifers weighing 750 to 950 pounds sold $8.00 to $15.00 higher. It was noted that the flesh on feeders was a big determinant on prices at the sale today. Demand was excellent and load lots were ample. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 97%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for July 12: not available at this time.
LEAN HOGS:After enduring Wednesday's dramatic fall, the lean hog complex accomplished a higher close Thursday as traders reassessed the market. It did help that both the cash market and pork cutout values closed higher, which gave traders an extra nudge of encouragement. August lean hogs closed $1.15 higher at $96.50, October lean hogs closed $1.17 higher at $83.35 and December lean hogs closed $0.92 higher at $76.05. But even though pork cutout values closed higher, the individual cuts still endured some stress as the belly soared $17.07, which the butt fell $10.30. Pork cutouts totaled 288.63 loads with 268.35 loads of pork cuts and 20.28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.24, $110.90. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 465,000 head, 8,000 head more than a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago. Wednesday's slaughter was revised to 452,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for July 11: up $0.70, $99.36.
Pork next sales of 24,500 mt for 2023 were down 6% from the previous week and 9% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were China (13,700 mt), Japan (3,800 mt) and Mexico (3,600 mt).
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers have likely fulfilled their needs for the week and won't show the cash hog market much interest come Friday
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