Friday, September 1, 2023

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Hogs Keep Rallying

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mostly quiet day for the livestock complex as traders paid little attention to the cattle contracts ahead of the week's end, but they did support the lean hog complex through the day's close. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.07 with a weighted average price of $80.06 on 2,094 head. December corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 105.21 points.

From Friday to Friday, the livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle down $1.03, December live cattle down $0.95; September feeder cattle up $0.65, October feeder cattle up $0.68; October lean hogs up $3.22, December lean hogs up $2.58; September corn down $0.06, December corn down $0.06.

**The markets will be closed on Monday, Sept. 4. Regular DTN livestock market commentary will resume on Tuesday, Sept. 5.**

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a mostly quiet day for the live cattle complex as traders left the contracts drift lower into the long weekend. A little more cash cattle trade developed in the South at $178, but it was just clean up in its nature. Come Tuesday, it will be interesting to see how packers handle themselves. They didn't buy many cattle last week and this week's volume seems to be light again. That could indicate that they'll need to be more aggressive next week in the cash market, but they're still going to try to work prices lower at every opportunity they get. October live cattle closed $0.67 lower at $180.15, December live cattle closed $0.62 lower at $184.17 and February live cattle closed $0.52 lower at $188.32. Throughout the week, Northern dressed cattle sold for mostly $290, which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average and Southern live cattle traded for mostly $179, which is mostly steady with last week's weighted average.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, steady with a week ago and 1,000 head less than year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 8,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated around 621,000 head, 11,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.70 ($314.49) and select up $1.04 ($290.29) with a movement of 89 loads (56.58 loads of choice, 17.46 loads of select, 4.20 loads of trim and 10.87 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. With packers not having bought a plethora of cattle this past week or the week before, they could need to buy more aggressively next week. But as the market continues to trek its way through the final weeks of summer, packers will continue to try to work prices lower.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn complex closing $0.02 to $0.03 higher and the live cattle contracts rounding out the day lower, traders didn't see much opportunity to trade the feeder cattle contracts higher. Even so, demand continues to be electric throughout the countryside for both calves and feeders as buyers remain aggressive in procuring feeders. September feeders closed $1.42 lower at $251.85, October feeders closed $1.37 lower at $254.65 and November feeders closed $1.27 lower at $256.37. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers traded $1.00 to $3.00 higher and feeder heifers sold steady to $4.00 higher. Ster calves sold $4.00 to $8.00 higher and heifer calves under 500 pounds sold $5.00 to $10.00 higher, while heifers over 500 pounds sold $2.00 higher. Slaughter cows and bulls traded mostly steady. The CME feeder Cattle Index for Aug. 31: down $0.02, $248.93.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed higher and traders kept the lean hog contracts above the resistance plane of $82.00 that they broke through on Wednesday. Helping reassure traders that this was a good move was the slight uptick in pork demand as pork cutout values not only closed higher Thursday afternoon, but Friday afternoon too. The picnic saw the biggest daily advancement as it closed $7.57 higher. October lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $83.05, December lean hogs closed $0.27 higher at $74.60 and February lean hogs closed $0.32 higher at $79.02. Pork cutouts totaled 225.82 loads with 208.70 loads of pork cuts and 17.12 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.48, $93.70. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head, 10,000 head more than a week ago and 38,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 21,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Aug. 30: down $1.41, $89.26.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers may have to be more aggressive early next week given that they'll be springing into the week after a long holiday weekend.




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