GENERAL COMMENTS:
Friday treated the cattle contracts extremely well, but the same can't be said for the lean hog market as its contracts sank lower. Thankfully Friday's Cattle on Feed report was supportive, and it could mildly support the market nearly next week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.50 with a weighted average price of $77.59 on 3,636 head. December corn is up 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 51.35 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $0.15, December live cattle down $0.47; September feeder cattle down $3.28, October feeder cattle down $5.33; October lean hogs down $1.60, December lean hogs down $2.93; December corn up $0.01, March corn up $0.02.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex rounded out Friday's trade higher as traders expected the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report to be supportive. Thankfully the report was indeed supportive, and traders may be able to maintain the current trading range next week with the support of this week's COF report and the steady prices seen in the cash market. October live cattle closed $2.10 higher at $187.07, December live cattle closed $1.85 higher at $191.35, and February live cattle closed $1.47 higher at $195.55. The week's volume of cash cattle sales has been thin and unless more trade develops late this evening, packers could be short bought heading into next week's market. Throughout the week Northern dressed cattle have sold for mostly $292 which is steady with last week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle sold for $183 which is steady with last week's weighted average as well.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 13,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 625,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 46,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.40 ($303.33) and select up $1.43 ($280.43) with a movement of 98 loads (60.25 loads of choice, 15.08 loads of select, 5.53 loads of trim and 16.81 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Unless packers are going to cut processing speeds which would minimize their need for cattle, it's likely that they're going to be short bought heading into next week's market.
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers have already been able to buy cattle in both regions, it's likely that Friday's trade will remain steady with today's prices.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The market closes before the USDA afternoon Cattle on Feed report is released, but traders believed that the report would be supportive, and supportive it was indeed! With both the on-feed and placement data lower than a year ago, traders will likely support the market again on Monday. Click here to read DTN's Cattle on Feed report comments:
September feeders closed $0.82 higher at $254.10, October feeders closed $1.37 higher at $259.15 and November feeders closed $0.82 higher at $263.52. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers sold steady to $3.00 higher and feeder heifers sold steady. Steer calves sold steady and heifer calves traded $2.00 to $5.00 lower. It was noted that the fall-run appears to be in full swing as more and more loads of unweaned calves are being sold. Slaughter cows and bulls sold $1.00 to $2.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 51%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/21/2023: down $0.87, $253.22.
LEAN HOGS:
The cattle contracts may have been able to rally through Friday's end, but that wasn't the case for the lean hog complex as its contracts fell anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 lower. Friday's weakness came as a double-edged sword as pork cutout values did close lower, and it's likely that traders believe that they overdid the market's upward run earlier this week. Come Monday traders will again scout the complex for support, and hopefully find some footing in the market although there's still more downside before long-term support levels are reached. October lean hogs closed $1.42 lower at $81.52, December lean hogs closed $2.30 lower at $72.17 and February lean hogs closed $2.40 lower at $75.35. Pork cutouts totaled 281.48 loads with 252.50 loads of pork cuts and 28.98 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.49, $97.26. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 478,000 head - 2,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 121,000 head. The CME lean hog index 9/20/2023: up $0.50, $87.17.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers were fairly aggressive this past week in the cash market, it's likely that they'll wait until Tuesday or Wednesday to really support the market again.
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