Beef production for 2023 was raised by 35 million pounds due to higher cow and bull slaughter in the second half of the year, which more than offsets the weaker fed-cattle slaughter. But USDA did state that, "the increase in total slaughter is partially offset by lower dressed weights," which I raise question to, because as of last week's most recent slaughter data, carcass weights are the second highest they've been in history, behind only 2022 by 1 or 2 pounds.
Regarding quarter price projections, prices were slightly decreased from a month ago due to recent price trends. The third quarter of 2023 is now expected to average $184.27, which is $0.27 higher than last month, but the fourth quarter of 2023 is now expected to average $185.00, which is $5.00 less than a month ago. For 2024, the first quarter is now expected to average $187, which is $1.00 less than last month, and the second quarter of 2024 is now expected to average $185 which is $1.00 lower than last month's projection.
Beef imports for 2023 were increased by 70 million pounds, and 2023 beef exports were decreased by 20 million pounds.
Thursday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog and pork markets. Pork production for 2023 was raised by 130 million pounds as slaughter speeds in the second half have increased and based on the revisions to the first half of the 2023 pig crop.
In terms of quarterly price projections, the third quarter of 2023 is expected to average $69.27, which is down $0.27 from last month's projection, and the fourth quarter of 2023 is now expected to average $58.00 which is $1.00 lower than last month's report. For 2024 hog prices in the first quarter are expected to average $59.90, which is $2.30 lower than last month's projection, and second quarter prices for 2024 are expected to average $59.70, which is $0.20 cheaper than last month's projection.
Pork imports for 2023 were raised by 25 million pounds, and 2023 pork exports were decreased by 125 million pounds.
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