Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Support Resurfaces for Cattle, but Hogs Continue to Trade Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

After a politically charged Tuesday with Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy being voted out of his position, the livestock contracts are longing to find stability in Wednesday's market and thankfully support is appearing. Even though the contracts are only trading higher gingerly, higher is higher. December corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 69.34 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading higher after the market was sent tumbling lower throughout Tuesday's trade. The spot December contract is trading below it's 40-day moving average, but the market continues to trade above it's 100-day moving average. So long as beef demand doesn't show much more softness and cash prices maintain their trend of trading just $1.00 or $2.00 lower this week, it's likely that the market's long-term fundamental outlook could keep the complex from dropping below it's 100-day moving average. October live cattle are up $0.60 at $182.77, December live cattle are up $0.65 at $186.30 and February live cattle are up $0.27 at $190.57. There's a single bid being offered in Texas at $182, but, at this point, feedlots don't seem overly worried about marketing any more cattle just yet. There was some business that took place Tuesday afternoon in the South at $182, which is $1.00 softer than last week's weighted average, and some light Northern trade developed at $183 which is also just $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Asking prices in the South are noted at $183-plus and in the North at $290-plus.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.11 ($297.96) and select down $0.60 ($274.99) with a movement of 100 loads (57.99 loads of choice, 24.41 loads of select, 10.16 loads of trim and 7.20 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the live cattle contracts are trading mildly higher and one could say that should lend feeders some support, Tuesday's spike in the number of available job listings in the U.S. still isn't sitting well with the feeder cattle complex as that will likely ensure that interest raters are increased later this month. October feeders are down $0.35 at $248.25, November feeders are down $0.07 at $250.27 and January feeders are down $0.37 at $253.90. Sales were mixed throughout the countryside on Tuesday, but the CME Feeder Cattle Index continues to trade above $250.00, which is a positive sign.

LEAN HOGS:

Mostly the lean hog complex is keeping with its descend as the market continues to look for a bottom in this trading move. Both the February 2024 and April 2024 contracts are trading higher as traders believe that supplies could be tighter at that point, but otherwise the contracts continue to trade lower as fundamental support is spotty and technically the market continues to be plagued with timidness from traders. October lean hogs are down $0.17 at $79.77, December lean hogs are down $0.02 at $69.05 and February lean hogs are up $0.30 at $73.02.

The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.24 with a weighted average price of $72.87, ranging from $65.00 to $74.00 on 1,751 head and a five-day rolling average of $73.13. Pork cutouts total 154.10 loads with 131.84 loads of pork cuts and 22.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.14, $95.75.




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