GENERAL COMMENTS:
Friday left the livestock complex with a mixed close as the live cattle market closed lower, feeders closed mostly higher, and the lean hog complex rallied throughout all of Friday's trade. Besides a few more sales in Western Nebraska at $188, but cash cattle market was quiet throughout most of the day. December corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 429.32 points.
From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $1.60, December live cattle up $0.58; October feeder cattle up $0.13, November feeder cattle up $0.53; October lean hogs up $0.05, December lean hogs up $1.50; December corn down $0.09, March corn down $0.09.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex may have closed slightly lower Friday afternoon but that wasn't because of a lack of fundamental support. Rather instead, after supporting the live cattle contracts through the vast majority of the week and upon seeing the cash cattle market trade steady/$1.00 higher on Thursday, traders checked out of the market before the day ended. October live cattle closed $0.57 lower at $188.60, December live cattle closed $0.70 lower at $187.57 and February live cattle closed $0.67 lower at $188.20. There were a few more cash cattle sales reported in Western Nebraska at $188, but other than a few clean-up deals here and there the market was mostly quiet throughout the day. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded at $186 to mostly $187 which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $296 which is also steady with last week's weighted average.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 106,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 6,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 586,000 head -- 25,000 head less than a week ago and 30,000 head less than a year ago.
Friday's WASDE report was supportive to both the beef and cattle markets of 2024. 2024 beef production was raised by 205 million pounds to total 27,000,000 pounds for the year as beef production for the third and fourth quarters are expected to be greater than last month's projection and carcass weights remain at record levels. Beef production for 2025 was also increased -- by 300 million pounds -- as production in the first half of the year is expected to be greater than originally assumed. It was exciting to see quarterly steer price projections increased from last month's report as steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $186 (up $3.00 from last month), first quarter steer prices in 2025 are expected to average $187 (up $1.00 from last month) and second quarter steer prices in 2024 are expected to average $186 (which is steady with last month's projection). 2024 beef imports were increased by 55 million pounds as supplies continue to come into the US aggressively from Oceania and South America, but beef exports for 2024 were also increased by 5 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.27 ($311.22) and select down $2.01 ($288.72) with a movement of 94 loads (37.20 loads of choice, 28.87 loads of select, 14.62 loads of trim and 13.78 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Before any predictions about next week's cash market can be confidently made, we need to see exactly how many cattle were purchased this week and for what delivery options they were committed to. But given that packers drastically cut processing speeds this past week to lessen their dependence on the cash market, feedlot managers are going to be challenged next week in trying to continue to advance the market.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Even though the live cattle complex closed lower, the feeder cattle market was able to maintain most of its higher position although some of the nearby contracts closed mildly lower. But between the fed cash cattle market's stronger trade, to the tremendous buyer demand in the countryside and the continue support of traders in the futures complex -- this week's market could be described as another winning week for cattlemen and for the cattle complex as a whole. October feeder closed $0.52 lower at $249.75, November feeders closed $0.15 lower at $249.80 and January feeders closed $0.05 higher at $247.25. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that throughout the entire state and when compared to last week, feeder steers over 800 pounds sold $4.00 to $8.00 higher, and feeder steers under 800 pounds sold $2.00 to $5.00 lower. Steer vales traded $3.00 to $4.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded $3.00 to $5.00 higher and heifer calves sold steady to $4.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold $1.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold $1.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 75%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/10/2024: up $0.53, $250.05.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex yet again managed to round out the day higher as traders continue to thrive on the supportive nature of Thursday's export report. December lean hogs closed $0.70 higher at $77.65, February lean hogs closed $0.75 higher at $81.15 and April lean hogs closed $0.55 higher at $85.17. Afternoon pork cutout values closed lower yet again but today the biggest limiting factor to the cutout values' ability to close higher was the loin's $3.99 decline. Hog prices averaged $74.34 on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report on 1,754 head. Pork cutouts totaled 276.94 loads with 239.37 loads of pork cuts and 37.57 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.40, $94.47. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 172,000 head. The CME lean hog index 10/09/2024: steady, $84.47.
Friday's WASDE report was mixed to both the hog and pork markets of 2024. Pork production for 2024 was decreased by 105 million pounds as recently slaughter speeds have been reduced and carcass weights are lighter. Quarterly price projections were favorable to the hog complex as hogs in the fourth quarter of 2024 are now expected to average $55 (up $1.00 from last month), hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $55 (up $1.00 from last month) and hog prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $61 (up $1.00 from last month). Pork imports for 2024 are unchanged, but pork exports for 2024 fell by 30 million pounds.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's not very often that packers show much interest in the cash market on Mondays as they like to get a feel for the week's domestic demand before bidding on hogs.
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