GENERAL COMMENTS:
Following Wednesday's aggressive technical surge, the livestock complex is trading fully lower into Thursday's noon hour as traders hope fundamental support rises and reassures them of yesterday's move. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but bids are noted in Nebraska currently at $294. December corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 144.26 points.
Beef net sales of 22,500 mt for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 68% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (7,900 mt), China (6,200 mt) and Mexico (2,800 mt). Pork net sales for 43,400 mt for 2024 were up 55% from the previous week and 61% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (24,000 mt), China (7,900 mt) and Canada (2,900 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is trading lower into Thursday's noon hour as the market patiently waits to see what feedlot managers accomplish this week in the cash sector. After rallying the contracts aggressively through Wednesday's end, traders are scanning the market today desperately looking for fundamental support to reassure them of their move. But with midday boxed beef prices mixed, and no substantial cash cattle sales having developed yet, the market is quiet and mundane at this point. October live cattle are down $0.85 at $186.57, December live cattle are down $1.20 at $186.50 and February live cattle are down $0.92 at $187.47. Bids of $294 live are currently being offered in Nebraska, but otherwise, the cash market is sitting idle as feedlot managers wait for packers to get more aggressive. At this point, it's likely that the bulk of the week's trade could be delayed until Friday as packers and feedlot managers again go-rounds about what the week's trade should shake out to be.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.32 ($299.49) and select up $0.55 ($284.48) with a movement of 84 loads (44.72 loads of choice, 17.72 loads of select, 8.61 loads of trim and 13.24 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the live cattle complex trading lower and the fed cash cattle market not having seen any trade yet, the feeder cattle market is trading moderately lower into Thursday's noon hour as the market waits to see if any support is going to surface. October feeders are down $1.57 at $248.15, November feeders are down $1.10 at $247.47 and January feeders are down $0.27 at $241.80. Also adding some technical pressure to the feeder cattle market is the fact that Wednesday's sharply higher jump put the spot November contract near the market's 100-day moving average which is a major resistance point for the complex.
LEAN HOGS:
Following Wednesday's sharply higher close, the lean hog complex is trading slightly lower as traders look to the market's fundamentals to reassure them that Wednesday's move was merited. October lean hogs are down $0.65 at $84.02, December lean hogs are down $0.52 at $76.22 and February lean hogs are down $0.35 at $79.80. It is encouraging that pork exports were up 55% from the previous week and that morning pork cutout values are higher -- but with how aggressively traders ran Wednesday's market higher, they're slow to add any position to the market again today.
The projected lean hog index for 10/2/2024 is up $0.45 at $84.90, and the actual index for 10/1/2024 is up $0.32 at $84.45. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.38 with a weighted average price of $74.73, ranging from $73.00 to $76.50 on 665 head and a five-day rolling average of $77.09. Pork cutouts total 153.32 loads with 130.62 loads of pork cuts and 22.70 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.17, $95.19.
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