GENERAL COMMENTS:
Emotional damage done this past week is the primary reason why the cattle complex is trading lower. With the chaos that ensued over the announcement of potentially cheapening beef prices with Argentina imports, the market was a hot topic this week for everyone. Now that the market sits a couple of hours away from closing for the week, traders are waving their white flag, all but saying, "We've had enough already, let this week end." December corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 485.37 points and the NASDAQ is up 286.60 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Where do I even begin in writing comments today? As you look across the futures complex, all you see when you gaze across the cattle contracts is sharply lower prices -- mostly $7.25 lower in the live cattle complex, and limit lower again in the feeder cattle arena. My phone has been blowing up this morning with the same message being asked: what did we miss? What happened this morning? What's causing today's mudslide? The market seems psychologically fried from this past week, and traders have all but wiped their hands of the market today. There's too much volatility and uncertainty being laced within the complex (mostly being driven by headlines and posts on social platform X) for there to be any sound decision-making and credence put on the market's bullish, long-term fundamental trajectory. I wish there was a more tangible reason as to why the market was trading lower this morning, but after the week the market has endured, traders are just waving their white flag, waiting for the board to close and the week to thankfully end.
December live cattle are down $7.25 at $233.92, February live cattle are down $7.25 at $233.42 and April live cattle are down $7.25 at $232.75. There's some light trade being noted in the North, where dressed cattle are trading at $370, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Some Southern trade is being reported at $238, which is also $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.76 ($375.90) and select up $2.87 ($357.61) with a movement of 109 loads (84.91 loads of choice, 7.34 loads of select, 8.60 loads of trim and 7.85 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is trading at its daily limit, down $9.25, as traders have had enough of the cattle complex uncertainty this week. November feeders are down $9.25 at $352.20, January feeders are down $9.25 at $348.17 and March feeders are down $9.25 at $345.05. Unfortunately, today's severe decline has pushed the November spot back below its 40-day moving average, which is not a good technical signal.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is currently trading mixed as the market doesn't have enough support to really push prices higher ahead of the day's close, so a mixed tone is what traders feel safest with. December lean hogs are up $0.55 at $82.32, February lean hogs are up $0.12 at $84.47 and April lean hogs are down $0.10 at $88.87. It's likely that the complex will close with this lackadaisical tone and hope that next week's market shows more support so it can trade higher from there.
The projected lean hog index for 10/23/2025 is down $0.68 at $92.95, and the actual index for 10/22/2025 is down $0.55 at $93.63. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 425 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $89.15. Pork cutouts total 273.97 loads with 243.80 loads of pork cuts and 30.16 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.95, $102.66.
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