GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was another mixed close for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts continue to rally upon bullish long-term market fundamentals, and the lean hog complex is trading lower still as support simply isn't surfacing. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, meaning that packers are going to need to get more aggressive on Friday. December corn is down 3 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 243.36 points and the NASDAQ is down 18.75 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Again today following in the feeder cattle market's wild rally, the live cattle contracts were able to successfully close higher. Between traders seeming to fully recognize that supplies are only going to tighten in 2026, and the additional support of stronger boxed beef prices this week, the live cattle complex has thus far committed to trading higher this week despite traders not knowing what's going to happen in this week's fed cash cattle market. October live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $235.02, December live cattle closed $1.02 higher at $239.90 and February live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $243.40. A single bid of $230 was offered throughout the day in Nebraska, but no cattle traded. Asking prices are firm in the South at $235 to $237, but are still not established in the North.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 111,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. Yes, boxed beef prices did close lower this afternoon, but the mostly higher trend throughout the week has helped comfort traders that the market's trajectory should be one of a stronger rally.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.94 ($365.22) and select down $0.91 ($344.33) with a movement of 137 loads (83.51 loads of choice, 26.75 loads of select, 7.95 loads of trim and 19.14 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. With the board's support, there's a chance that fed cash cattle prices may be able to trade steady this week.
FEEDER CATTLE:
It was a fruitful day for the feeder cattle complex as the market climbed to new contract highs yet again, rallying on tremendous technical support, and the help from stronger boxed beef prices and the realization from traders that prices are only likely going to get higher and higher into 2026 as supplies are known to be thin. October feeders closed $4.52 higher at $374.02, November feeders closed $5.22 higher at $374.05 and January feeders closed $5.52 higher at $369.05. This week's breakout rally has pushed the feeder cattle complex higher than what anyone believed it would go this week, and it could potentially even affect the fed cash cattle market, giving it the push it needs to trade at least steady. At Clovis Livestock Auction in Clovis, New Mexico, compared to last week, steer calves weighing 300 to 350 pounds traded $14.00 higher, steers weighing 350 to 400 pounds sold $10.00 lower, and steers weighing 400 to 450 pounds sold $10.00 stronger, and those weighing 550 to 600 pounds sold $5.00 higher. Heifer calves weighing 300 to 350 pounds sold $5.00 lower, heifers weighing 350 to 450 pounds sold $5.00 to $10.00 higher, heifers weighing 500 to 550 pounds sold $10.00 lower and those weighing 550 to 600 pounds traded $18.00 higher. The sale report did note that buyer attendance was excellent. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 27%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/8/2025: up $1.84, $367.35.
LEAN HOGS:
The cattle complex may have been able to joyfully rally throughout the day, but without fundamental support, the lean hog complex just fell lower and lower as the day traded on. December lean hogs closed $1.75 lower at $84.35, February lean hogs closed $1.45 lower at $86.67 and April lean hogs closed $1.07 lower at $90.22. I find it odd that this week packers have been so lackadaisical about their buying in the cash market, as they've hardly participated. But with the combination of light and weak cash hog interest, and softer consumer demand, it comes as no real surprise that the futures complex has traded lower. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.72 with a weighted average price of $96.33 on 2,435 head. Pork cutouts totaled 301.54 loads with 248.95 loads of pork cuts and 53.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.18, $102.64. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 491,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/7/2025: down $0.71, $100.70.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers rarely buy aggressively in the cash hog market on Fridays, but their buying habits have been different this week.
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