Friday, December 12, 2025

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Back Away from the Market's 100-Day Moving Average

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour as the cattle contracts drift lower, away from the market's resistance at its 100-day moving average, but the lean hog contracts are continuing to trade higher. No new cash cattle trade has developed. March corn is down 3 1/2 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 254.39 points and the NASDAQ is down 413.48 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following Thursday's rally, the live cattle complex is once again trading slightly lower as the market still doesn't believe it possesses enough support to challenge the market's resistance at its 100-day moving average. One could argue that the rally this week in the fed cash cattle market should be enough support to help traders make that move, but from a technical standpoint, traders still aren't confident about that leap. If traders were to challenge the resistance at the 100-day moving average, they'd need to believe that there's enough support in the marketplace to not only conquer that threshold, but also sustain a position above that mark as a move over the 100-day moving average would signal continued support, which is likely what traders are struggling with most at this point given that they obviously see that the market holds ample fundamental support this week, but don't know what's in store for the upcoming holiday weeks. So far this week Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $353 to $355, which is $10.00 to $12.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $230, which is $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average. No new trade has developed at this point, but bids are on the table again in Nebraska. February live cattle are down $1.25 at $229.72, April live cattle are down $0.97 at $229.70 and June live cattle are down $0.80 at $223.37.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.85 ($357.26) and select up $1.32 ($344.87) with a movement of 89 loads (61.32 loads of choice, 8.07 loads of select, 15.07 loads of trim and 4.20 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex doesn't seem to believe it has enough support either to sustain its position above the market's 100-day moving average, and it's currently trading below that threshold. January feeders are down $2.87 at $340.52, March feeders are down $2.17 at $335.50 and April feeders are down $2.07 at $334.50. Today's slight regression doesn't likely mean that traders believe the market needs to again trade vastly lower, but rather that they potentially jumped the gun on challenging the resistance at the market's 100-day moving average.

LEAN HOGS:

While the cattle contracts are trading mostly lower this morning, the lean hog complex is fighting to keep its upward momentum. February lean hogs are up $0.32 at $84.50, April lean hogs are up $0.35 at $89.57 and June lean hogs are up $0.07 at $100.97. Today's support mostly comes from traders' willingness to continue to advance the complex as pork cash prices and pork cutout values are lower.

The projected lean hog index for 12/11/2025 is up $0.23 at $82.80, and the actual index for 12/10/2025 is up $0.41 at $82.57. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.11 with a weighted average price of $70.93, ranging from $68.00 to $74.00 on 345 head and a five-day rolling average of $71.60. Pork cutouts total 202.88 loads with 184.90 loads of pork cuts and 17.97 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.30, $98.54.




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