GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex closed mostly lower as traders simply didn't see enough support in the market to challenge resistance thresholds. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day. March corn is up 4 1/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $5.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 179.03 points and the NASDAQ is up 30.59 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex ended the day slightly higher, as the spot February contract was able to inch just past its 40-day moving average, but the market wasn't strong enough just yet to rival the 100-day moving average. Traders are longing to see what develops fundamentally this week, as they'll likely base their decision on whether or not to challenge the 100-day moving average off that development. December live cattle closed $0.50 lower at $226.82, February live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $226.95 and April live cattle closed $0.20 higher at $226.90. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, and both bids and asking prices remain elusive at this point. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago.
Tuesday's WASDE report shared mixed news for cattle and beef markets of 2025 and 2026. Beef production for 2025 was increased as both fed and non-fed slaughter have increased, and as carcass weights continue to be at an all-time high. Beef production for 2025 is now estimated at 25,950 million pounds -- up 194 million pounds from last month's report. Beef production for 2026 increased from last month's report as well -- now estimated to total 25,725 million pounds, up 335 million pounds from last month's estimate. Cattle prices, unfortunately, softened substantially from last month's report to reflect the market's recent prices and to account for reduced shackle space in 2026. Steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $226 (down $8.00 from last month), steers in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $230 (down $12.00 from last month), steers in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $234 (down $11.00 from last month's report) and steers in the third quarter of 2026 are expected to average $236 (down $12.00 from last month's report). Beef imports for 2025 are lowered by 20 million pounds, and beef exports for 2025 are lowered by 45 million pounds as well. Beef imports for 2026 are increased by 500 million pounds as reduced tariffs will affect the influx of beef, but beef exports were decreased by 40 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.14 ($361.04) and select down $0.57 ($348.03) with a movement of 140 loads (94.58 loads of choice, 25.93 loads of select, 7.17 loads of trim and 12.47 loads of ground beef).
WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Although packers were able to buy up some inventory last week, I personally believe that they still could be active in this week's market as they need to secure supplies for the Christmas to New Years' time span.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Although the live cattle complex closed slightly higher, the feeder cattle contracts weren't able to do the same, as the market didn't see enough fundamental reassurance to make that move happen. Yes, feeder cattle demand is excellent right now, but the live cattle contracts didn't close higher in a bold manner, and the pressure at the market's 100-day moving average is significant. January feeders closed $0.15 lower at $335.50, March feeders closed $0.27 lower at $330.15 and April feeders closed $0.25 lower at $329.47. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing over 800 pounds traded $6.00 to $10.00 higher and steers weighing under 800 pounds sold $15.00 to $30.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded $6.00 to $10.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold $15.00 to $30.00 higher, with spots up to $40.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 55%. The CME feeder cattle index 12/8/2025: up $1.44, $344.50.
LEAN HOGS:
Although pork demand remained strong through the day's end, the lean hog contracts weren't able to break beyond the market's resistance at $82.00. December lean hogs closed $0.20 higher at $82.50, February lean hogs closed $0.52 lower at $81.87 and April lean hogs closed $0.45 lower at $86.52. Traders need to see ample, undeniable fundamental support before they'll likely attempt to take on that resistance. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.39 with a weighted average price of $71.43 on 4,671 head. Pork cutouts totaled 306.31 loads with 252.25 loads of pork cuts and 54.06 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.93, $96.44. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 493,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/5/2025: up $0.03, $81.84.
Tuesday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog and pork markets of 2025 and 2026. Pork production for 2025 was decreased by 25 million pounds, and pork production for 2026 remained steady at 27,475 million pounds. Quarterly price projections also saw a decrease as hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $64 (down $2.00 from last month's report), hog prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $64 (down $1.00 from last month's report), hog prices in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $70 (unchanged from last month) and hog prices in the third quarter of 2026 are expected to average $71 (unchanged from last month). 2025 pork imports increased by 10 million pounds, but pork exports for 2025 decreased by 10 million pounds. Pork imports for 2026 increased by 15 million pounds to 1,175 million pounds, but pork exports for 2026 increased by 60 million pounds to 7,020 million pounds.
WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers will likely need to be aggressive for at least another day in this week's market.
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