Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Trade Mixed While Hogs Head Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into midday Wednesday as the market is trading cautiously in the cattle sector but has stumbled into some technical support in the hog complex. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. March corn is steady and March soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 309.55 points and the NASDAQ is up 282.78 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After rallying to highs not seen since October, the live cattle complex is now trading mostly lower as traders look for reassurance from the market's fundamentals. February live cattle are down $0.37 at $246.17, April live cattle are down $0.30 at $242.50 and June live cattle are down $0.05 at $238.40. The cash cattle market remains absolutely silent, with no bids or asking prices having been noted yet. It's most likely that trade will be delayed until Friday again this week, and it is assumed that fed cash cattle prices will be higher again this week.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.26 ($363.50) and select up $0.99 ($361.21) with a movement of 58 loads (43.87 loads of choice, 6.35 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.12 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading slightly more optimistically into midday Wednesday than the live cattle complex, as its contracts are trading mixed. Helping keep the feeder cattle contracts elevated is the strong demand in the countryside, as buyers know that supplies are going to remain thin and that if they want to fill their orders, they have to buy aggressively. March feeders are down $0.20 at $370.77, April feeders are up $0.02 at $367.85 and May feeders are up $0.35 at $364.15.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading fully higher into Wednesday's noon hour as the market is pleased to have found some technical support after its straining downturn over the last week. April lean hogs are up $0.20 at $92.50, June lean hogs are up $0.72 at $106.57 and July lean hogs are up $0.72 at $108.45. Fundamental support remains lagging, and traders will eventually desire to see more support in pork demand.

The projected lean hog index for 2/17/2026 is up $0.05 at $87.19 and the actual index for 2/16/2026 is up $0.08 at $87.13. Hog prices are again unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 855 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $87.00. Pork cutouts totaled 174.46 loads with 155.43 loads of pork cuts and 19.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.25, $95.63.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Find Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders stepped into the cattle market aggressively after the three-day weekend. Cash cattle traded higher on Friday after the close. Traders reacted to the higher cash prices, moving futures closer in line with cash. Live cattle futures gapped open but were unable to hold the day's highs. This does not mitigate the potential for further strength as futures remain below the level of the cash trade last week. The higher beef prices have not reduced demand as consumers prefer beef and are willing to pay for it. Tight cattle supplies may tighten further as there is little indication of the cattle herd rebuilding. The potential for increased beef imports may have little impact on the market. Boxed beef prices closed lower, with choice down $3.01 and select down $1.01. Feeder cattle futures did not gap open but moved higher in response to the strength of live cattle.

Hog futures moved moderately higher as the liquidation phase seemed to have run its course. Futures have corrected from being overbought, which generated some buying interest. The fact that futures were not able to hold the highs may indicate it might be difficult for the market to regain the losses anytime soon. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a gain of $2.99. Packers may be somewhat aggressive with purchases today but may not pay higher prices the rest of the week. Pork cutouts declined $0.97 to $95.88.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures are lower than cash and may move higher to reduce the spread. Cash cattle are expected to be higher again this week.	1)	Live cattle gapped higher on the open after the extended weekend. This gap may be filled in the near term.
2)	Packers have not been able to purchase many cattle for deferred delivery, reducing any leverage they may have in the cash market.	2)	Boxed beef prices continue to struggle to trend higher. Consumers may be near a threshold of prices they are willing to pay for beef.
3)	Hog futures seem to have completed the liquidation phase, increasing the interest of traders to buy into the market on the potential for a price retracement.	3)	The inability of hog futures to hold the highs on Tuesday may indicate it might be difficult to regain the losses.
4)	There is potential for increased pork demand over time. Pork cutout values are trending higher despite increased slaughter.	4)	Packers may have a good volume of hogs purchased for the week and remain less aggressive and pay lower prices.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Strong Trader Support Helped Drive Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex had a rather successful day as all three of the markets closed higher as traders eagerly jumped into the new week. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, about steady in Kansas, and lower in Texas. March corn is down 5 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $3.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 32.26 points and the NASDAQ is up 31.71 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

What a day, what a day, what a day it was for the live cattle complex as support poured into the sector from both the market's fundamental and technical facets. With last week's strong performance in the fed cash cattle market, where prices traded $4.00 higher in both regions and the five-area weighted average was pushed to $245.62 (a new all time high for the fed cash cattle market) traders saw all the fundamental support they needed to push the contracts sharply higher from the day's get go and keep the market trading higher through the day's close. February live cattle closed $3.47 higher at $246.55, April live cattle closed $2.17 higher at $242.80 and June live cattle closed $2.30 higher at $238.45. And while someone may want to point to today's weaker close in boxed beef prices, do remember that February has historically been a tough month to sell beef, and by and large, even with prices as high as they are, consumers haven't weakened in their quest for more beef. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, about steady in Kansas, and lower in Texas.

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week, Southern live cattle were marked at mostly $248, which is $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $382, which is also $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 59,651 head. Of that 95% (56,657 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 5% (2,994 head) were committed to the market's deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.01 ($364.76) and select down $1.01 ($360.22) with a movement of 119 loads (94.68 loads of choice, 9.85 loads of select, 7.45 loads of trim and 7.49 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With fed cash cattle supplies so thin, prices will likely be even higher this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex had all the support it could hope for throughout the day as the market was pleased to note the uptick in the fed cash cattle complex, along with seeing the live cattle contracts trading higher, all of which collectively made it relatively easy for traders to push the contracts through the day's end. March feeders closed $4.82 higher at $370.97, April feeders closed $4.37 higher at $367.82 and May feeders closed $4.37 higher at $363.80. At the Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers traded steady to $4.00 higher, and feeder heifers traded $5.00 to $10.00 higher. Steer calves sold mostly steady and heifer calves traded steady to $5.00 higher. It was noted in the sale report that buyers were a little more selective for type and kind, which logically makes sense when they are paying these types of prices. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 65%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/16/2026: up $0.99, $376.07.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex didn't receive unwavering, fundamental support throughout the day, as cash prices were a tick higher, but pork cutout values closed lower, which means that today's higher close in the futures complex stems from the fact that traders simply believe that the market has endured enough downward pressure for the time being. April lean hogs closed $1.02 higher at $92.30, June lean hogs closed $1.30 higher at $105.85 and July lean hogs closed $1.47 higher at $107.72. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.99 with a weighted average price of $88.23 on 2,460 head. Pork cutouts totaled 267.85 loads with 241.89 loads of pork cuts and 25.96 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.97, $95.88. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 493,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 15,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/13/2026: $0.13, $87.06.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that prices were slightly higher today, there's a chance that prices may scale slightly lower on Wednesday as packers haven't been overly aggressive in the cash market lately.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Happily Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading higher into midday Tuesday as the cattle complex is delighted to note the $4.00 advancement in last week's cash market, and the lean hog contracts have finally found some technical support. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, about steady in Kansas, and lower in Texas. March corn is down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 40.63 points and the NASDAQ is down 69.81 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's been a wildly successful day thus far for the live cattle complex as the market is seeing immense support from traders, which is helping the contracts scale well over $1.00 higher into midday Tuesday. More than anything, the robust fundamental support from last week's cash cattle market, mixed with the bullish long-term trajectory, seems to have traders' full attention this morning. February live cattle are up $3.07 at $246.15, April live cattle are up $1.90 at $242.52 and June live cattle are up $1.95 at $238.10. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, about steady in Kansas, and lower in Texas.

Last week, Southern live cattle were marked at mostly $248, which is $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $382, which is also $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 59,651 head. Of that 95% (56,657 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 5% (2,994 head) were committed to the market's deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.86 ($366.91) and select up $0.14 ($361.37) with a movement of 62 loads (45.85 loads of choice, 5.50 loads of select, 3.48 loads of trim and 6.86 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon noting the strength of last week's fed cash cattle trade and seeing how traders are energetically supporting the live cattle contracts, it's been an easy decision for traders to push the feeder cattle contracts higher. March feeders are up $4.15 at $370.30, April feeders are up $3.97 at $367.42 and May feeders are up $3.97 at $363.40. So long as the live cattle complex continues to trade higher through the day's close, the feeder cattle contracts will likely follow in the same direction.

LEAN HOGS:

After a tumultuous downturn over the last seven trading days, the lean hog complex has finally found some technical support as traders potentially believe that the contracts have created enough space from the contract highs scored in early February. April lean hogs are up $0.95 at $92.22, June lean hogs are up $1.35 at $105.90 and July lean hogs are up $1.55 at $107.80. Pork cutout values are a tick lower this morning, but that doesn't seem to be affecting traders at this point.

The projected lean hog index for 2/16/2026 is up $0.08 at $87.13 and the actual index for 2/13/2026 is up $0.13 at $87.06. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 205 head have traded this morning and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $87.58. Pork cutouts total 141.07 loads with 127.40 loads of pork cuts and 13.67 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.43, $95.42.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders May Be Aggressive Buyers of Cattle Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle traded as much as $4 higher late on Friday. With the markets closed on Monday, traders were not able to react to the higher cash. This may bring bullish traders into the market aggressively today. Even with packers reducing slaughter, it is not backing up cattle and lowering prices. Feedlots continue to hold for higher cash with record weights not having an impact. The February live cattle price is below cash and likely will move in line with the cash market. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday, with choice up $3.30 and select down $2.19. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders reducing their net-long live cattle long futures positions by 5,132 contracts to 106,639. The long positions in feeder cattle futures were increased by 34 contracts to 17,959.

Hog futures saw further weakness on Friday, with contracts falling to the lowest level in a month. The correction of the oversold condition has been fast and severe. With contracts closing near the lows on Friday, there may be some follow-through selling today. However, after correcting from being overbought, traders may be willing to be aggressive buyers after the three-day weekend. The National Dairy Direct Afternoon Hog report on Monday showed cash up $0.02. Packers may be more aggressive today. Pork cutout values increased by $1.69. The combination of higher cash, higher cutouts, and a correction from overbought conditions may give traders confidence to buy back into the market. The Commitment of Traders report showed the fund traders adding 5,067 long futures positions to increase their net-long position to 128,463.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Higher cash trade last week indicates continued strong demand for beef, requiring packers to remain aggressive buyers.	1)	Both live and feeder cattle futures have not been able to break through resistance. Traders may remain cautious.
2)	Live cattle futures are below cash and will need to move higher to reduce the discount.	2)	At some point, high beef prices may reduce consumer demand enough to impact the market.
3)	Hog futures have corrected the overbought condition, with the market back to a neutral technical position. Buyers may step back in more confidently.	3)	Hog futures closing near the lows on Friday suggest follow-through selling could take place at the beginning of trading.
4)	Packers are expected to purchase hogs more aggressively as they intend to obtain the numbers they need earlier in the week.	4)	The supply of market-ready hogs remains sufficient, leaving packers less aggressive in the cash market.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade $4.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the futures market closed mostly lower, but the cash cattle complex saw some positive momentum ahead of the week's end. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $382, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average and Southern live cattle traded at $248, which is also $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. March corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 48.95 points and the NASDAQ is down 50.48 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle up $5.33, April live cattle up $3.38; March feeder cattle down $1.27, April feeder cattle up $0.65; April lean hogs down $6.68, June lean hogs down $6.05; March corn up $0.01, May corn up $0.03.

**The markets will be closed on Monday, Feb. 16, for Presidents Day. Regular DTN commentary will resume on Tuesday, Feb. 17.**

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts closed lower as traders weren't willing to allow the contracts to scale higher without first seeing what the fed cash cattle market was going to accomplish. Luckily, stronger trade developed in the cash sector shortly after the market closed. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $382, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average and Southern live cattle traded at $248, which is also $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 86,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is estimated to be around 1,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 541,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 19,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.37 ($364.47), select up $0.39 ($363.42) with a movement of 60 loads (37.38 loads of choice, 7.83 loads of select, 9.56 loads of trim and 4.79 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: It's likely again, next week, fed cash cattle prices will trade higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex closed mixed, with the furthest deferred months maintaining a stronger position, but the market's nearby contracts were fearful to hold their higher position ahead of the day's close as the live cattle contracts closed lower. March feeders closed $0.42 higher at $366.15, April feeders closed $0.17 lower at $363.45 and May feeders closed $0.47 higher at $359.42. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, feeder steers over 800 pounds sold $2.00 to $4.00 lower, but steers under 800 pounds traded $5.00 to $10.00 higher. Feeder heifers over 700 pounds sold steady to $5.00 lower, and steers under 700 pounds traded $2.00 to $7.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves traded unevenly steady. The cattle market was mixed this week and struggled to establish a consistent trend. Grazing-type cattle were the exception, as demand from grass accounts remained very strong. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 69%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/12/2026: up $0.04, $373.91.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mostly lower Friday afternoon, as the market is fearful of an overabundance of supply and was disappointed to see pork cutout values close lower, too. April lean hogs closed $0.55 lower at $91.27, June lean hogs closed $1.00 lower at $104.55 and July lean hogs closed $1.10 lower at $106.25. Unfortunately, it's tough to tell when the downward trend may end, as traders are quickly pulling the contracts away from the highs established last week. Pork cutout values tipping lower could cause more downward pressure, too. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.73 with a weighted average price of $85.22 on 1,229 head. Pork cutouts total 253.58 loads with 212.81 loads of pork cuts and 40.78 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.49, $95.16. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 446,000 head, 44,000 head less than a week ago and 35,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 129,000 head. The CME lean hog index 2/11/2026: up $0.37, $86.89.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers won't likely show significant interest in the cash market on Tuesday.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Move Lower While Waiting for Cash Cattle to Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading lower into Friday's noon hour as the lean hog market simply doesn't have the support it needs fundamentally or technically and the cattle complex is waiting for cash cattle to trade. A single bid is currently on the table in Nebraska, but otherwise nothing has surfaced in the cash sector. March corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 210.80 points and NASDAQ is up 128.04 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex has drifted slightly lower as traders try to remain patient, waiting for cash cattle to trade. It's fully assumed prices will be higher later Friday when trade develops, but the real question is: How much higher? February live cattle are steady at $242.50, April live cattle are down $0.67 at $239.97 and June live cattle are down $0.45 at $235.90. A single bid is currently on the table in Nebraska at $238, but otherwise no news has developed. Asking prices remain firm in Texas at $245 to $247, but aren't clearly established elsewhere.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.45 ($364.39) and select up $0.26 ($363.29) with a movement of 30 loads (24.05 loads of choice, 2.18 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 3.48 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Keeping in alignment with the live cattle contracts, the feeder cattle complex is trading slightly lower as well. March feeders are down $0.02 at $365.70, April feeders are down $0.72 at $362.90 and May feeders are down $0.95 at $358.95. Demand has mostly higher this week in the countryside for both feeders and calves, but there has been notable interest in the heavier weight feeders that will make grass cattle in a few months.

LEAN HOGS:

In keeping with its lower trend, the lean hog complex continues to lose position as the market anticipates more supply to be working its way into the system, which causes traders some fear that pork cutout values could weaken. Not to mention, just a little over a week ago the market did reach new all-time highs in the futures complex which put heavy pressure on the market's technical side. April lean hogs are down $0.30 at $91.52, June lean hogs are down $0.75 at $104.80 and July lean hogs are down $0.87 at $106.47.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 2/12/2026 is up $0.04 at $86.93 and the actual index for 2/11/2026 is up $0.37 at $86.89. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 409 head have traded this morning, and that the market's five-day rolling average sits at $86.91. Pork cutouts total 174.97 loads with 140.53 loads of pork cuts and 34.44 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.78, $94.87.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Higher Cash Cattle Prices Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle closed mixed and near the middle of the trading range for the day. Futures have a higher cash cattle trade factored in, with traders waiting to see just where it will land. The general feeling is that cash will be higher. Boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice down $1.08 and select up $0.45. The announcement of Cargill closing its ground beef plant in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, had some impact on the market, but it was limited. It is unfortunate as the beef will now be processed at a different facility, with transportation adding to the cost. Strong beef demand continues amidst tightening cattle supplies. Carcass weights are at record highs as packers require heavier cattle to make up for lower cattle numbers. The markets will be closed on Monday for President's Day.

Hog futures have fallen the entire week, with the weakness exceeding the usual 2- to 3-day liquidation phase of an overbought market. Contracts closed at the lowest level in a month. This inability of cash hogs to find support and trend higher has become disappointing to bullish traders. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report showed cash down $1.22. Pork cutout values posted a gain of $1.88, but that may have little impact on the market. Futures may find some stability today as the selling may subside ahead of the 3-day weekend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle are expected to trade higher as little has changed fundamentally. Cattle supplies are tight and may remain that way.	1)	Higher cash is already factored in and may keep further gains in cattle futures even if higher cash prices develop.
2)	Fund traders have been adding to their long cattle positions with confidence due to the current fundamental environment. The Commitment of Traders report should show this trend.	2)	Record beef carcass weights have offset lower cattle supplies to some extent. It may be enough to limit the upside price potential.
3)	Hog futures are likely to run out of selling ahead of the weekend as liquation may have run its course.	3)	The weakness in hog futures may be a larger market correction rather than just correcting from being overbought.
4)	High beef prices have increased pork demand. This should continue as the beef supplies are not expected to increase anytime soon.	4)	Packers are not expected to be aggressive today as they have most of their hogs purchased for the week.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Without Enough Immediate Fundamental Support, Contracts Close Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mostly lower as traders simply weren't seeing the fundamental support they needed to push the contracts higher. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. March corn is up 3 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $4.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 669.42 points and the NASDAQ is down 469.32 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed mixed as traders were inpatient in having to wait for the fed cash cattle market to trade. February live cattle closed $0.15 higher at $242.50, April live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $240.65 and June live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $236.25. Still no trade has developed, but asking prices are noted at $245 to $247 in Texas. It's assumed that trade will be higher on Friday in the cash market, but it's anyone's guess on how much higher the market will actually trade. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

There is a chance that the market could turn lower on Friday as news broke this afternoon that Cargill will close their Milwaukee, Wisconsin ground-beef plant, with playoffs beginning April 11, until the plant closes on May 31. The plant employs 221 workers. This is unfortunate news for the industry as the loss of shackle space is always a concern for the cow-calf sector and comes at an ill-fated time for the consumer, as the market needs more ground beef, not less.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.08 ($364.84) and select up $0.45 ($363.03) with a movement of 101 loads (70.76 loads of choice, 5.88 loads of select, 10.31 loads of trim and 14.32 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. So long as the market isn't entirely derailed by the news of the Cargill ground-beef plant closure in Milwaukee, prices should still trade higher as market-ready supplies of fed cattle are thin and will be well through the first quarter.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Without robust support from the live cattle contacts, the feeder cattle contracts felt it was safest to end the day slightly lower, as technical support is simply lagging. March feeders closed $1.72 lower at $365.72, April feeders closed $0.97 lower at $363.62 and May feeders closed $0.52 lower at $359.90. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week, steers and heifers over 625 pounds sold $5.00 lower to $5.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves didn't have enough of a test to establish any sort of trend. Slaughter cows sold steady to $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 85%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/11/2026: down $0.49, $373.87.

LEAN HOGS:

Although pork demand improved this afternoon as the afternoon's carcass price jumped $1.88, traders still continued to push the lean hog contracts lower in fear of surplus supply. April lean hogs closed $2.02 lower at $91.82, June lean hogs closed $1.92 lower at $105.55 and July lean hogs closed $2.02 lower at $107.35. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.22 with a weighted average price of $86.95 on 2,833 head. Pork cutouts totaled 287.86 loads with 260.60 loads of pork cuts and 27.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.88, $95.65. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 456,000 head, 30,000 head less than a week ago and 29,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/10/2026: up $0.20, $86.52.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers are likely done buying in the cash hog market for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Trade Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading lower into Thursday's noon hour as the market is short of fundamental support. More than anything the market would like to see some developments in the fed cash cattle market as noting higher prices would reassure traders that the cattle futures can indeed trade higher. March corn is up 2 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $4.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 553.58 points and NASDAQ is down 331.77 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,700 mt for 2026 were down 21% from the previous week and 1% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (7,800 mt), Japan (1,900 mt) and Mexico (1,800 mt). Pork net sales of 28,600 mt for 2026 were down 18% from the previous week and 24% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (12,000 mt), Japan (7,100 mt) and Colombia (1,700 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Following Wednesday's sizeable rally, the live cattle complex is back to trading slightly lower as the market tries to patiently wait to see what's going to develop in the fed cash cattle market this week. With boxed beef prices declining -- as they seasonally do during this time -- traders need to see additional fundamental support, which will likely come from the cash market when trade develops at some point this week. But in the lightning fast world we live in, waiting until the very bitter end of the week to see what's going to develop fundamentally for the market is a painful waiting lesson traders aren't necessarily fond of. February live cattle are down $0.25 at $242.10, April live cattle are down $0.90 at $240.07 and June live cattle are down $1.02 at $235.55. Asking prices have surfaced in parts of Texas at $245 to $247 -- but otherwise the market remains quiet and trade could be delayed until Friday.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.39 ($365.53) and select down $0.59 ($361.99) with a movement of 46 loads (24.40 loads of choice, 3.08 loads of select, 7.95 loads of trim and 10.72 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And as one would logically assume in this market, with the live cattle contracts trading lower, the feeder cattle contracts are following suit. March feeders are down $2.50 at $364.95, April feeders are down $1.90 at $362.70 and May feeders are down $1.32 at $359.10. Demand has been mostly strong this week in the countryside for both feeder cattle and calves -- and especially for cattle that will make yearlings this upcoming summer.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex continues to tumble lower as the market anticipates a wall of supply that's likely going to hit the market at any point in time now. The latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed market-ready supplies were larger than originally assumed, and the market is bracing itself for that supply to hit. April lean hogs are down $2.37 at $91.47, June lean hogs are down $2.07 at $105.40 and July lean hogs are down $2.05 at $107.32.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.28 with a weighted average price of $87.00, ranging from $80.00 to $88.50 on 2,621 head and a five-day rolling average of $86.72. Pork cutouts total 166.32 loads with 148.49 loads of pork cuts and 17.83 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.12, $95.89.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Dry Weather Causes Concern in Cattle Country

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The April live cattle contract fell just shy of closing the chart gap that remained since Feb. 4. The other live and feeder cattle contracts remained within the recent sideways range. The gains should result in greater potential for higher cash trade this week. The dryness developing in cattle country is an increasing cause for concern. There is discussion and some movement of cattle weighing as low as 300 pounds moving into feedlots due to the dryness. That certainly does not increase the desire or the ability to rebuild the cow herd. The current market fundamentals suggest that the increased importation of beef from Argentina will have little impact on beef prices. Boxed beef prices were lower, with choice down $1.63 and select down $0.32.

Hog futures had another day of liquidation as the market continued to correct its overbought status. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.43, leaving much to be desired fundamentally. Cash may be higher today, but gains may be limited as packers will likely finish up most of the purchases for the week. Pork cutout values declined $1.69. The recent bullish sentiment may be wavering, and it may be enough to reduce the likelihood of traders buying the break due to contracts closing below technical support.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The dryness developing in cattle country is a concern that may keep cattle herds from rebuilding and keeping supplies tight.	1)	Cattle futures were not able to push above technical resistance, with the potential for futures to pull back even if cash trades higher.
2)	The opening up for more beef imports from Argentina has had no impact on the market as it has already been factored in.	2)	Packers continue maintain a reduced slaughter pace for cattle, but it has not been able to improve boxed beef prices.
3)	Hog futures have corrected from being oversold and may increase trader interest to buy the break.	3)	Liquidation has taken place over the past 3 days with hog futures closing below support. Traders may not be anxious to buy the break.
4)	Weekly hog weights were 0.1 pound lower than the previous week, keeping the lower trend intact.	4)	Weekly hog weights are 1.5 pounds higher than a year ago. Packers are having little difficulty meeting demand for pork.

U.S. cattle herd hits new lows as decline extends into sixth year

The U.S. cattle herd fell for the sixth consecutive year, totaling 86.16 million head on January 1, 2026. This is 320,000 head below 2025 levels and 8.64 million head reduction since the 2019 cyclical peak. Breaking this down further, the beef cow herd contracted by 280,000 head to 27.61 million, a somewhat surprising development given relatively low cow slaughter rates.

Heifer retention increased by 40,000 head. However, a few more retained heifers in 2026 does not necessarily signal a larger calf crop in 2027. Most of these heifers will not calve until at least 2027, and it is still too early to assume meaningful herd expansion or a noticeable uptick in calf numbers next year. Notably, heifers as a share of cattle on feed are already higher than in 2025. However, if heifer retention does increase, those animals are pulled out of the feedyard supply, which would tighten the fed cattle inventory and support higher prices in the near term. Accordingly, 2027 may mark the early stages of herd expansion at the earliest.

The threat of New World screwworm continues to move steadily closer to the U.S. border. In response to ongoing detections in northern Mexico, all southern U.S. ports of entry remain closed to live cattle imports since July 1. USDA unveiled a plan to release sterile New World screwworm flies in Texas and along key regions of northern Mexico to help prevent further spread of the pest. Because female screwworm flies mate only once in their lifetime, releasing sterile males reduces the number of viable offspring in subsequent generations, gradually suppressing the population and slowing its northward movement.

In the western U.S., the beef cattle herd remained relatively stable year over year. Beef cattle supplies, which considers all cattle and calves, not including milk cows that calved or milk cow replacements (a proxy for the beef cattle herd), saw a reduction of 1.3% in the region. California and Idaho posted only slight declines, with Idaho down roughly 20,000 head (-1.3%) and California down about 10,000 head (-0.4%) compared to 2025. Montana and Oregon also recorded modest decreases of about 21,000 (-1.0%) and 24,000 (-2.2%) head, respectively. Washington was the only state to see an increase, adding approximately 20,000 (+2.7%) beef cattle in the past year. Arizona saw a notable decline of 56,000 (-9.2%) head, likely driven by ongoing drought conditions.

Although the latest report offered a few surprises, the national herd remains historically small. These tight supplies are expected to continue to support strong cattle prices for cow-calf producers. However, rising production costs remain a substantial concern. Over the past five years, operating costs for Western cow-calf operations have risen an average of 17.5%, while total production expenses have climbed 22.8%. Even with record prices, producers should closely manage costs.

Packer profitability has been under significant pressure, with beef packers operating at slim or negative margins since September 2024. Packer profitability has been impacted by expense of purchasing cattle as well as reduced plant utilization. Trade policy uncertainty, particularly surrounding tariffs, has added further strain. Current breakeven prices on an 800lb steer are estimated near $2.59 per lb for fats, while market fats are closer to $2.35 per lb, meaning today’s cattle are being fed at a loss. Although prior-yearyear cattle were profitable, some packers appear to be taking on substantial risk in hopes of better margins in 2026 and 2027.

Profitability

Cattle feeders: Profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Cow-calf producers: Very profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

Tight calf supplies and robust demand have intensified competition for feeder cattle. Profitability is expected to remain resilient, supported by cost-of-gain efficiencies and strong box beef prices.

Historically tight cattle inventories, limited availability of replacement heifers, and firm calf prices continue to underpin profitability for cow-calf operations.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Rally While Hogs Continue to Scale Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed on opposite ends, with the cattle complex receiving additional technical support that drove the cattle contracts higher, but the lean hog complex continued to drift lower through the day's end. March corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 66.74 points and the NASDAQ is down 36.00 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a breakout day for the live cattle complex as traders elected to push the live cattle contracts out of their sideways trading range, as robust trader interest simply drove the contracts higher. The livestock contracts are anticipatory markets, and it's almost as though traders simply decided that today was the day that a little move position was built into the live cattle complex, as everyone knows that the trajectory is steady to somewhat higher with demand strong and supplies limited. February live cattle closed $3.25 higher at $242.35, April live cattle closed $3.55 higher at $240.97 and June live cattle closed $2.77 higher at $236.57. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and both bids and asking prices remain elusive. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head, 3,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.63 ($365.92) and select down $0.32 ($362.58) with a movement of 102 loads (69.91 loads of choice, 7.08 loads of select, 16.99 loads of trim and 7.61 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With supplies of market-ready cattle thin, packers will likely end up paying more money again in this week's fed cash cattle market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the technical support of seeing the live cattle contracts trading higher, it was almost easy for the feeder cattle contracts to jump on board too and drive their contracts higher. March feeders closed $2.67 higher at $367.45, April feeders closed $3.32 higher at $364.60 and May feeders closed $3.65 higher at $360.42. At the Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week, feeder steers sold unevenly steady across all weight classes. Feeder heifers under 700 pounds sold sharply lower, but heifers over 700 pounds sold $6.00 to $8.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 63%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/10/2026: up $0.53, $374.36.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex continued to plummet through Wednesday's close, as the market has been enduring significant technical pressure as of late. And with pork cutout values recently seeing a dip in demand as well, it's likely that the complex will continue to scale lower. April lean hogs closed $1.65 lower at $93.85, June lean hogs closed $1.42 lower at $107.47 and July lean hogs closed $1.17 lower at $109.37. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.43 with a weighted average price of $88.17 on 2,600 head. Pork cutouts totaled 283.46 loads with 246.14 loads of pork cuts and 37.31 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.69, $93.77. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 495,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/9/2026: down $0.14, $86.32.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With the futures market and pork cutout values trending lower, it's likely that packers will hardly participate in the cash hog market.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Jump $3.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a fruitful day for the cattle contracts as both the live cattle and feeder cattle futures are trading $3.00 higher into Wednesday's noon hour. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and both bids and asking prices have yet to be established. March corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 42.63 points and NASDAQ is down 9.83 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's almost as if the overarching theme in the live cattle complex as we head into Wednesday's noon hour is, "Why are we waiting around? We know the market's direction is higher." So where does all this support come from this morning? Good question, because boxed beef prices are lower, there's yet to be any trade in the fed cash cattle market, and the equity markets aren't doing anything that would justify trading notably higher. But if there's one thing we know and understand about the livestock complex, it's that it is an anticipatory market. If traders think the market is bound to trade substantially higher, one may ask, "Why not today?" February live cattle are up $3.30 at $242.40, April live cattle are up $3.50 at $240.92 and June live cattle are up $2.77 at $236.62. Still no trade has developed in the fed cash cattle market and both bids and asking prices remain elusive at this point.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.41 ($367.14) and select up $1.19 ($364.09) with a movement of 53 loads (45.12 loads of choice, 3.38 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.62 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the live cattle contracts trading higher, it didn't take much convincing to get the feeder cattle futures to move higher also. March feeders are up $3.02 at $367.80, April feeders are up $3.62 at $364.90 and May feeders are up $3.77 at $360.55. Sales have been noticeably stronger this week in the countryside for both feeder cattle and calves as supplies remain incredibly thin.

LEAN HOGS:

Meanwhile the lean hog complex is the same story Wednesday that it's been over the last couple of days as the market continues to scale lower. April lean hogs are down $1.12 at $94.37, June lean hogs are down $0.82 at $108.07 and July lean hogs are down $0.67 at $109.87. And with pork cutout values down slightly, the market won't likely change its direction this afternoon.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 2/10/2026 is up $0.20 at $86.52, and the actual index for 2/9/2026 is down $0.15 at $86.32. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $3.36 with a weighted average price of $88.28, ranging from $81.00 to $88.75 on 2,142 head and a five-day rolling average of $86.56. Pork cutouts total 170.57 loads with 146.86 loads of pork cuts and 23.72 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.01, $94.45.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures Liquidation May Run Its Course

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures were not under pressure due to any specific fundamental news, but rather from traders' inability to find a clear price direction. It seems the WASDE report garnered some attention, but USDA's estimates of beef production and prices are not a market-mover. More interest was directed to grains and the implications for feed prices. There has been no cash trade as usual this early in the week, with traders mixed as to further upside price this week. Most believe that cash will again trade higher as cattle supplies are tight and feedlots will hold for higher prices. However, there may be a need to move some of the heavier cattle as it gets to a point when it becomes unprofitable to hold. Boxed beef prices on Tuesday were lower, with choice down $0.21 and select down $2.45.

Hog futures posted a second consecutive day of losses in the closer months as liquidation took place in an overbought market. Liquidation generally runs its course in 2-3 days. Thus, lower prices in early trading today could find some support as the aggressive selling dries up. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report did not show a price change from the previous day despite a good volume of hogs traded. The past few times we have seen a few days without prices being reported, the price jumped significantly when it was released. Maybe it will be the same this time. Pork cutout values declined by $0.37 to average $95.46.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	USDA's estimates for steer prices were bullish through the rest of the year, with quarterly prices raised from $3 to $6, even though beef imports were raised by 50 million pounds.	1)	Cattle futures have been unable to resume the uptrend over the past week and may move sideways for a time.
2)	Packers continue to face tight cattle supplies and need to bid up to purchase cattle for slaughter.	2)	Reduced cattle slaughter may eventually result in packers being able to purchase cattle without having to continue to bid higher.
3)	Hog futures have retraced the past two days and may run out of selling today, allowing the market to stabilize or bounce.	3)	Hog futures may continue to correct from being overbought, with further weakness possible.
4)	Packers may be more aggressive buyers of hogs today as they need to purchase their weekly needs.	4)	Hog slaughter continues to run higher, but packers seem to have plentiful hogs to purchase, leaving them less aggressive and cash prices rangebound.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts Close Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended mostly lower Tuesday afternoon as traders yearn to see greater fundamental support. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday. March corn is steady and March soybean meal is up $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 52.27 points and the NASDAQ is down 136.20 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

All in all, it was a quiet, mundane day for the live cattle complex as traders didn't feel comfortable advancing the contracts ahead of seeing what this week's fed cash cattle market was going to accomplish. So they simply elected to let the live cattle contracts drift mildly lower through the day's end. February live cattle closed $0.20 lower at $239.10, April live cattle closed $0.77 lower at $237.42 and June live cattle closed $0.52 lower at $233.80. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, and at this point, bids and asking prices remain elusive, too. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago.

Tuesday's WASDE report shared a fruitful outlook for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was increased by 185 million pounds as fed cattle slaughter is expected to increase, cow slaughter is expected to increase, and carcass weights are obviously higher. I personally question what leads them to believe fed cattle and cow slaughter speeds are going to increase -- as the entire industry knows supplies are historically thin, and that's not expected to change in 2026, and potentially not in 2027 either. But as always, time will tell. The quarterly steer price projections were bullish as every single quarter for 2026 was increased from January's estimates. Steers in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $238 (up $6.00 from last month), steers in the second quarter are expected to average $238 (up $4.00 from last month), steers in the third quarter are expected to average $240 (up $3.00 from last month) and steers in the fourth quarter are expected to average $245 (up $5.00 from last month). Beef imports for 2026 were increased by 50 million pounds and beef exports for 2026 remained steady.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.21 ($367.55) and select down $2.45 ($362.90) with a movement of 111 loads (82.25 loads of choice, 8.55 loads of select, 6.09 loads of trim and 13.90 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With fed cash cattle supplies thin, packers will likely end up paying more money in this week's market again.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was trading mixed into Tuesday's noon hour, with the market's nearby contracts following the same trend as the live cattle contracts, but at least the deferred feeder cattle contracts were keeping their higher trend as traders seemed committed to focusing on the market's limited supplies for all of 2026. But as the day passed on, traders grew less and less committed to the bullish mindset and ultimately let the feeder cattle contracts drift lower through the day's end. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, steers under 750 pounds sold $5.00 to $20.00 higher, with heavier weights traded $5.00 to $10.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold $5.00 to $22.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 64%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/9/2026: down $0.83, $373.83.

LEAN HOGS:

It was another lower-waning day for the lean hog complex as the market continues to work its way further from the technical resistance that was established just a week ago. And not helping matters this afternoon, pork cutout values closed lower, too. February lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $86.85, April lean hogs closed $1.22 lower at $95.50 and June lean hogs closed $0.90 lower at $108.90. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report averaged $84.92 on 1,585 head. Pork cutouts totaled 282.33 loads with 244.78 loads of pork cuts and 37.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.37, $95.46. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 494,000 head, 17,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/6/2026: down $0.11, $86.46.

Tuesday's WASDE report shared a positive outlook for the hog and pork markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was increased by 60 million pounds as both slaughter speeds and carcass weights are heavier than originally anticipated. The quarterly price projections for hogs were bullish, as well as every single quarter saw an increase from January's estimates. Hogs in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $65 (up $1.00 from last month), hogs in the second quarter are expected to average $73 (up $3.00 from last month), hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $75 (up $3.00 from last month) and hogs in the fourth quarter are expected to average $63 (up $2.00 from last month). Pork imports for 2026 remained steady, but pork exports increased by 50 million pounds.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With pork cutout values a tick lower, it's not likely that packers will be overly aggressive in the cash market on Wednesday.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Chop Sideways While Hogs Venture Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is mixed into Tuesday's noon hour as the cattle contracts are trading sideways, but the lean hog contracts are mostly lower. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and won't likely until Thursday or Friday. March corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 248.92 points and NASDAQ is up 10.37 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

In trying to wait patiently for the week's fundamentals to shine through the marketplace, the futures complex is mixed as traders simply aren't willing to advance the market at this point without first seeing fundamental reassurance develop. February live cattle are up $0.42 at $239.87, April live cattle are down $0.02 at $238.17 and June live cattle are up $0.25 at $234.57. It's quite likely the market could enter a sideways trading range until it sees what the fed cash cattle market is going to accomplish this week. Traders don't want to pressure the market's resistance from a technical standpoint, but at the same time they believe in the market's long-term, bullish fundamental outlook, which is why a sideways trend is most likely to be the theme throughout the remainder of the day and until cash cattle begin to trade.

Tuesday's WASDE report shared a fruitful outlook for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was increased by 185 million pounds as fed cattle slaughter is expected to increase, cow slaughter is expected to increase, and carcass weights are obviously higher. I personally question what leads them to believe fed cattle and cow slaughter speeds are going to increase -- as the entire industry knows supplies are historically thin, and that's not expected to change in 2026, and potentially not in 2027 either. But as always, time will tell. The quarterly steer price projections were bullish as every single quarter for 2026 was increased from January's estimates. Steers in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $238 (up $6.00 from last month), steers in the second quarter are expected to average $238 (up $4.00 from last month), steers in the third quarter are expected to average $240 (up $3.00 from last month) and steers in the fourth quarter are expected to average $245 (up $5.00 from last month). Beef imports for 2026 were increased by 50 million pounds and beef exports for 2026 remained steady.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $2.24 ($370.00) and select down $0.82 ($364.53) with a movement of 74 loads (53.35 loads of choice, 4.31 loads of select, 4.17 loads of trim and 11.88 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Without a strong presence seen in the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts are also trading mixed into Tuesday's noon hour. But what remains interesting about the feeder cattle market's behavior is the deferred contracts aren't concerned about what the live cattle contracts are doing and instead are trading fully higher, seeming more focused on the market's long-term situation of short supplies. March feeders are down $1.35 at $366.10, April feeders are down $0.37 at $362.82 and May feeders are up $0.55 at $358.32.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is again trading lower as the market seems to be anticipating increased supplies that are soon to hit the market. The last quarterly Hogs and Pigs report unveiled more market-ready supplies than what the industry anticipated, and there were plenty of hogs noted in the heavy weight categories which will meet the consumer in the supply chain at any point in time now. But what also remains true is that while the futures complex may be scaling lower, pork demand over the last two weeks has been noticeably stronger, which one may logically assume is because some consumers are electing to purchase pork as opposed to beef as it's a cheaper protein option. February lean hogs are down $0.30 at $86.80, April lean hogs are down $0.87 at $95.85 and June lean hogs are down $0.45 at $109.35.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 2/9/2026 is down $0.15 at $86.32, and the actual index for 2/6/2026 is down $0.11 at $86.46. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report averaged $84.92, ranging from $84.00 to $88.50 on 1,585 head and a five-day rolling average of $85.65. Pork cutouts totaled 180.09 loads with 158.85 loads of pork cuts and 21.24 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.57, $96.40.

Tuesday's WASDE report shared a positive outlook for the hog and pork markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was increased by 60 million pounds as both slaughter speeds and carcass weights are heavier than originally anticipated. The quarterly price projections for hogs were bullish as well as every single quarter saw an increase from January's estimates. Hogs in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $65 (up $1.00 from last month), hogs in the second quarter are expected to average $73 (up $3.00 from last month), hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $75 (up $3.00 from last month) and hogs in the fourth quarter are expected to average $63 (up $2.00 from last month). Pork imports for 2026 remained steady, but pork exports increased by 50 million pounds.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Uncertainty May Limit Volatility

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle market had already factored in more beef from Argentina, as the signing of the agreement was only a formality of what had already been proposed. The extra beef that is imported may not have much impact on the beef price anyway. High beef prices are the result of tight cattle supplies, and those supplies will not change much anytime soon. Demand for beef remains strong, and packers do not have an abundance to choose from. Packers were able to purchase some for deferred delivery last week, but not enough to reduce their need for cattle this week. Boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice down $1.57 and select up $0.82.

Hog futures were mixed, with the nearby contract retracing on the potential that demand will be better, but prices may not be as strong as shown in the contracts through the first half of the year. Of course, one day of trade does not dictate the overall market attitude. Some impact might have stemmed from the market being overbought and in need of a correction. It is very unusual that there were no negotiated hogs traded on Monday. Many times, we have seen light movement resulting in packers not reporting prices, but the absence of any negotiated trade was a surprise. Packers should be more aggressive today, resulting in higher prices. Pork cutout values increased $2.06 with higher prices in all categories except hams.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Packers did not purchase a large volume of cattle for deferred delivery. This should keep them aggressive this week.	1)	Cattle futures have not been able to push higher to close the chart gaps. This may be unattainable in the near term.
2)	More beef imports from Argentina may be absorbed, likely having little impact on the overall market.	2)	Cattle futures may settle into a sideways trading range for a period.
3)	A price retracement in hogs may be a buying opportunity, as demand seems good and traders are confident enough to buy and hold futures contracts.	3)	Hog futures are overbought and may see a further price correction after the weakness in the nearby contracts on Monday.
4)	Packers are expected to be aggressive today, as they did not purchase hogs on Monday.	4)	Pork demand has been strong, but it may reach a plateau, keeping further upside price potential limited.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Inch Higher While Hogs Close Mixed

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed, with the cattle contracts finding some mild support, while the lean hog complex faced some pushback in its nearby contracts. New showlists are higher in Texas and Kansas, but mostly steady in Nebraska/Colorado. March corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $5.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 20.20 points and the NASDAQ is up 207.46 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

All in all, it was a quiet, peaceful Monday for the live cattle complex as the contracts closed slightly higher as traders desire for the market to continue to scale higher, but won't want to rival resistance thresholds without first seeing what's going to develop fundamentally this week. February live cattle closed $1.55 higher at $239.30, April live cattle closed $0.95 higher at $238.20 and June live cattle closed $0.47 higher at $234.32. New showlists are higher in Texas and Kansas, but mostly steady in Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 107,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $240 to $245, but mostly at $242 to $245, which is $3.00 to $6.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $378, which is $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 62,602 head. Of that 80% (50,107 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery option, while the remaining 20% (12,495 head) were committed to the market's deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.57 ($367.76) and select up $0.82 ($365.35) with a movement of 68 loads (42.18 loads of choice, 9.60 loads of select, 3.88 loads of trim and 11.92 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Supplies of market-ready cattle are thin, which is likely going to push the market higher again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex closed higher as well Monday afternoon, as the market felt safe closing slightly higher following last week's descent that pulled the complex away from resistance pressure. March feeders closed $0.02 higher at $367.45, April feeders closed $0.40 higher at $363.20 and May feeders closed $0.65 higher at $357.77. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers were trading mostly steady to $5.00 higher, with the biggest increase seen on steers weighing 700 to 800 pounds. Feeder heifers traded $5.00 to $15.00 higher. Stocker cattle and steer and heifer calves traded anywhere from $15.00 to $25.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 70%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/6/2026: up $0.19, $374.66.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ended the day mixed, with most of the nearby contracts closing lower while the deferred months were able to maintain a slightly stronger position. February lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $87.10, April lean hogs closed $1.22 lower at $96.72 and June lean hogs closed $0.80 lower at $109.80. More than anything, the market's technical resistance seemed to bear too much weight for traders to manage today, even though fundamental support remains strong with pork demand pushing pork cutout values higher. Hog prices are not available on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report as there have been no hogs traded yet. The only thing disclosed in the report is that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $86.45. Pork cutouts totaled 321.73 loads with 283.89 loads of pork cuts and 37.83 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.06, $95.83. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head, 46,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/5/2026: up $0.19, $86.57.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that no hogs traded today, packer interest should be stronger on Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Head Into The Noon Hour Mixed

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is heading into Monday's noon hour with a mixed tone, as traders desire to push the contracts higher, but need to see more fundamental support before they'll confidently do so. New showlists are higher in Texas, Kansas and mostly steady in Nebraska/Colorado. March corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $6.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 4.73 points and NASDAQ is up 247.60 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is taking a mixed approach to Monday's noon hour as the market continues to desire to trade higher -- but traders need to see continued fundamental support and reassurance before they'll likely push the market up to or beyond resistance thresholds. February live cattle are up $1.02 at $238.77, April live cattle are up $0.45 at $237.70 and June live cattle are down $0.17 at $233.67. Thankfully the market seems to be sensibly digesting the news from last Friday where President Trump announced the U.S. would be lowering duties on 80,000 metric tons(mt) of lean beef trimmings from Argentia -- which won't negatively impact our market by any means. It's reassuring to see traders aren't having a dramatic psychological reaction to the headline. New showlists are higher in Texas, Kansas and mostly steady in Nebraska/Colorado.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $240 to $245, but mostly at $242 to $245 which is $3.00 to $6.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $378 which is $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.28 ($369.61) and select up $2.06 ($366.59) with a movement of 23 loads (14.77 loads of choice, 2.95 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 5.06 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the live cattle complex trading mixed with no immediate, fundamental support to excite traders, the feeder cattle complex is also mixed. March feeders are down $0.70 at $366.72, April feeders are down $0.32 at $362.47 and May feeders are up $0.10 at $357.22. Until traders see continued fundamental support, it's likely a sideways trend could be established early this week.

LEAN HOGS:

Upon establishing what seems to be a new top last week in the lean hog complex, the market continues to trade lower as traders question if there's enough support to challenge that new threshold. April lean hogs are down $1.32 at $96.62, June lean hogs are down $1.05 at $109.55 and July lean hogs are down $0.77 at $110.97. Thankfully, pork demand remains red-hot right now and that could lend traders enough fundamental support if prices continue to scale higher later in the week.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 2/6/2026 is down $0.11 at $86.46, and the actual index for 2/5/2026 is up $0.19 at $86.57. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because no hogs have been traded yet. But we can note that the market's five-day rolling average sits at $86.12. Pork cutouts total 181.81 loads with 161.12 loads of pork cuts and 20.69 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.52, $96.29.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Future May See Pressure From Beef Import News

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures were whipsawed last week, with various news stories creating volatility. The potential strike at the JBS plant in Greeley seemed to have been digested to some extent. Then, President Trump signed the order to reduce tariffs on 80,000 metric tons of beef from Argentina to increase the volume of trim available to the U.S. market. This took the early strength out of the market that came from cash cattle trading higher in both the North and South. The President signing the agreement with Argentina may not have as much impact as this had been discussed earlier, but it is now to be formally implemented. This may have more of a psychological impact on the market than a physical one and may increase selling in futures today. Boxed beef prices were higher, with choice up $2.08 and select up $4.16. The Commitment of Traders report showed the fund traders adding 7,372 live cattle futures contracts, bringing their net-long position to 111,771. The net-long position in feeder cattle was reduced by 940 contracts to a total of 17,925.

Hog futures closed mixed and near the day's lows. The strength during the day evaporated due to lower cash, cutouts, and likely some spillover weakness from cattle. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.19. Pork cutout values declined by $1.50. The slaughter pace remains strong, indicating good demand. This is the last week to trade February futures and options, with the contract closing on Friday. The Commitment of Traders report showed the fund traders adding 13,859 contracts, bringing the total long positions to 123,396.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle traded higher, indicating beef demand remains strong, and packers need to obtain the cattle to meet that demand.	1)	The actual signing of the agreement to lower tariffs on 80,000 metric tons of beef trimmings may be sufficient to trigger selling.
2)	The importation of more beef from Argentina may not boost the overall volume of beef available to the market by much. The bullish fundamentals are bigger than that.	2)	The choppiness of the cattle market last week may indicate a top may be forming in the market for the time being. Liquidation could increase.
3)	Hog futures were not able to hold early strength, likely due to spillover pressure from cattle.	3)	Hog futures are oversold, and the weakness of cash and cutouts may trigger selling.
4)	The uptrend in hog futures remains intact. Traders seem confident over continued strength in demand.	4)	Packers continue to maintain a strong hog slaughter pace and have little difficulty finding hogs to meet demand.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Fold Under Pressure

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex had another fruitful day as most of the contracts were able to close higher. Throughout the week, some light trade was noted in the South at $242 to $245, which is $3.00 to $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $378, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. March corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1,206.95 points and the NASDAQ is up 490.62 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle up $1.90, April live cattle up $0.45; March feeder cattle up $7.15, April feeder cattle up $4.53; February lean hogs up $0.13, April lean hogs up $2.80; March corn up $0.02, May corn up $0.03.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed higher as the market was pleased to see an uptick in both fed cash cattle prices and boxed beef prices, which quickly seemed to draw most traders' attention past Thursday's disruption. February live cattle closed $2.50 higher at $237.75, April live cattle closed $1.65 higher at $237.25 and June live cattle closed $1.65 higher at $233.85. Throughout the week, some light trade was noted in the South at $242 to $245, which is $3.00 to $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $378, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 85,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be 1,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 536,000 head, 8,000 head more than a week ago and 46,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.08 ($369.33) and select up $4.16 ($364.53) with a movement of 60 loads (37.90 loads of choice, 8.42 loads of select, 10.65 loads of trim and 3.38 loads of trim).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With supplies of market-ready cattle thin, packers will likely need to stay engaged and actively buying in the cash market all the way through the first quarter.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also had a successful day as the market regained some of the lost position from Thursday's downturn. March feeders closed $3.35 higher at $367.42, April feeders closed $2.30 higher at $362.80 and May feeders closed $0.92 higher at $357.12. At Napoleon Livestock Auction in Napolean, North Dakota compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 450 to 500 pounds and those weighing 600 to 700 pounds traded $18.00 to $22.00 higher with some instances up to $28.00 higher, steers weighing 500 to 600 pounds and those weighing 750 to 800 pounds both traded $10.00 to $15.00 higher, but steers weighing 700 to 750 pounds traded steady to $3.00 lower, and those weighing 800 to 950 pounds traded $11.00 to $15.00 lower with instances up to $18.00 lower. Feeder heifers weighing 450 to 500 pounds traded $27.00 and heifers weighing 500 to 550 pounds traded $10.00 higher. Heifers weighing 550 to 600 pounds and heifers weighing 750 to 800 pounds traded steady to $5.00 lower, with instances up to $8.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 73%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/5/2026: down $0.69, $374.47.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex also had a successful day, when most of its contracts were able to close higher, except for a couple of the nearby months. What probably kept the spot April contract from closing higher is the fact that the afternoon's demand softened for pork. April lean hogs closed $0.42 lower at $97.95, June lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $110.60 and July lean hogs closed $0.37 higher at $111.75. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.19 with a weighted average price of $85.39 on 1,110 head. Pork cutouts totaled 205.43 loads with 186.93 loads of pork cuts and 18.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.50, $93.77. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head, 16,000 head more than a week ago and 13,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be 206,000 head. The CME lean hog index 2/4/2026: up $0.32, $86.38.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers are rarely very aggressive in the cash hog market on Mondays.