Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Inch Higher While Hogs Run Out of Steam

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed, with the cattle contracts keeping their rally through the end of the day, but the lean hog complex ran out of momentum and closed lower. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. March corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $3.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 12.19 points and the NASDAQ is up 40.35 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was brave throughout Wednesday's trade as traders elected to push the spot April contract up to the market's resistance at $239, but weren't willing just yet to attempt to conquer that threshold. I call the complex brave simply because traders didn't have to push the market higher, as there's been little fundamental support develop this week, as boxed beef prices are mixed, and there's been no sizeable trade yet in the fed cash cattle market. Now it is fully assumed that later this week fed cash cattle will trade higher, but time will tell. February live cattle closed $1.22 higher at $236.82, April live cattle closed $1.32 higher at $238.72 and June live cattle closed $1.20 higher at $234.45. A few bids were offered throughout the day in Nebraska at $236, but still no cattle traded. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 112,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago but 12,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.63 ($369.74) and select down $1.62 (363.57) with a movement of 86 loads (61.53 loads of choice, 7.94 loads of select, 5.55 loads of trim and 10.84 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With fed cash cattle supplies thin, prices will likely be higher when cattle trade later this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was also brave throughout the day, as although the market seemed to mostly follow the direction of the live cattle complex, it also threatened its resistance level in the spot March contract. March feeders closed $3.85 higher at $365.85, April feeders closed $3.65 higher at $364.30 and May feeders closed $3.40 higher at $361.35. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week, steers over 600 pounds were well tested to establish a definite market trend, but steers under 600 pounds sold unevenly steady, with black steers selling $15.00 higher while red lots were too fleshy and unweaned. The sale had minimal receipts compared to last week, as the winter snowstorm affected most in the area. The CME feeder cattle index 1/27/2026: down $0.74, $363.99.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex simply ran out of steam by the time Wednesday rolled around. February lean hogs closed $1.10 lower at $87.95, April lean hogs closed $1.67 lower at $95.15 and June lean hogs closed $1.45 lower at $107.92. Pork cutout values were a tick lower, which doesn't help the market's lower tone, but it was refreshing to see a larger volume traded in the cash hog market. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.46 with a weighted average price of $85.31 on 7,300 head. Pork cutouts totaled 296.78 loads with 263.21 loads of pork cuts and 33.56 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.64, $95.05. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 493,000 head, 6,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/26/2026: up $0.42, $84.43.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers bought somewhat aggressively today, it's likely that they'll be less aggressive later in the week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Scale Higher Waiting on Cash Cattle Trade to Develop

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed as the lean hog contracts are trading lower after facing some technical exhaustion, but the cattle contracts are bravely trading higher. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. March corn is up 3 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $4.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 30.30 points and NASDAQ is down 9.29 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex wasn't confident at the day's initial start, but now that the market has had longer to trade, the complex has grown stronger. Currently, the contracts are pushing past the market's resistance and treading higher into the day's noon hour. February live cattle are up $0.97 at $236.57, April live cattle are up $1.12 at $238.52 and June live cattle are up $0.95 at $234.20. It's somewhat questionable where traders are getting the additional support from this morning, as boxed beef prices are mixed and we've yet to see any trade in the fed cash cattle market. But maybe traders' confidence lies in the fact that they believe fed cash cattle prices will trade higher later this week and that Friday's Cattle Inventory report will be bullish. I hope all those claims come to fruit. At this point, no cash cattle trade has developed and both bids and asking prices remain elusive.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.14 ($369.25) and select down $1.45 ($363.73) with a movement of 50 loads (31.60 loads of choice, 4.20 loads of select, 5.22 loads of trim and 8.48 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading higher into Wednesday's noon hour as the market finds it comforting to see the live cattle contracts trading in a positive manner. March feeders are up $1.55 at $363.60, April feeders are up $1.60 at $362.25 and May feeders are up $1.57 at $359.52. As long as the live cattle contracts maintain their upward momentum through the day's end, it's likely that the feeder cattle contracts will as well.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts are back to trading lower as the market seems to be facing some technical exhaustion after a significant rally over the last month. Thankfully, pork cutout values are still trading higher, so traders should find some support there, but for the meantime, the market's direction is lower. February lean hogs are down $1.20 at $87.85, April lean hogs are down $1.87 at $94.95 and Juen lean hogs are down $1.72 at $107.65.

The projected lean hog index for 1/27/2026 is up $0.79 at $85.22 and the actual index for 1/26/2026 is up $0.42 at $84.43. Pork cutouts total 179.94 loads with 156.91 loads of pork cuts and 23.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.57, $96.26. Hog prices are again not available on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, but we can see that only 4,325 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average sits at $80.86.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures Are Ripe for a Retracement

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures did not accomplish much through the close with slight losses. Traders may wait for direction from cash before becoming too excited over higher prices. Packers have been able to purchase some cattle ahead for deferred delivery, but whether that will be sufficient to keep them from paying more this week remains to be seen. Feedlots have been in the driver's seat for quite some time and will remain that way with less expensive feed making increased weight gain profitable. Boxed beef prices were lower, which may keep traders cautious today. Choice boxed beef was down $0.79, with select down $1.93. Feeder cattle prices have not been published as the weather has closed many of them. However, prices likely will not suffer much.

Hog futures maintained the higher trend. The July contract closed above $110, where prices have not been for quite some time. The continued strength has been impressive, driven by the trend higher in pork cutouts. Hog supplies are being readily absorbed through increased demand. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.57. Packers are expected to remain aggressive again today. Pork cutouts declined $1.57. Hog slaughter continues to hold at a strong pace.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feedlots anticipate packers will need cattle and hold for higher prices.	1)	Cattle futures have not been able to break out of the recent sideways trading range. Technical resistance may be increasing.
2)	The current tight cattle supplies will provide the confidence for feedlots to hold cattle even if they are ready for the market. Higher weights have not been a problem for the market.	2)	Cattle futures seem to have found a level of comfort and may remain rangebound for a time.
3)	Hogs continue to trend higher with traders confident to hold and add to their long positions.	3)	Hog futures are overbought and ready for a retracement. This may take place before the end of the month.
4)	Hog weights are expected to decrease again this week, which means more hogs will be needed to maintain pork tonnage.	4)	The cash market is struggling to trend higher. Packers are not aggressive as there are sufficient hogs for slaughter.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Hogs Inch Higher While Cattle Dip Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex may have been worried about fundamental support, which is ultimately why both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed lower as traders deemed there wasn't enough support currently in the marketplace to justify trading the contracts higher, but the lean hog complex was a different story as it once again successfully closed higher. Still no fed cash cattle trade has developed. March corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 416.22 points and the NASDAQ is up 244.47 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex attempted to trade higher earlier in the day, but ultimately, the market's technical resistance was found to be too much of a barrier for the market to conquer at this time. If later in the week the fed cash cattle market is indeed able to trade cattle for higher prices, then there's a chance that the market could potentially attempt to conquer that threshold, but at this point, there simply wasn't enough fundamental support around for traders to successfully challenge that threshold. February live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $235.60, April live cattle closed $0.60 lower at $237.40 and June live cattle closed $0.37 lower at $233.25. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 112,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.79 ($368.11) and select down $1.93 ($365.19) with a movement of 102 loads (75.92 loads of choice, 6.73 loads of select, 4.25 loads of trim and 15.27 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Even though packers bought a respectable volume in last week's market, prices will likely trade higher again this week as feedlot managers know that packers need more inventory and they're currently in a position that if they don't see the prices they'd like, they can simply roll their showlists over into the upcoming week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also lost its momentum as the day traded onward, as traders weren't willing to advance the complex when the live cattle contracts were trending lower. It's been tough to note feeder cattle price trends in the countryside, as most sale barns have been shut down early this week while much of the country has been blasted with snow and arctic temperatures. March feeders closed $0.60 lower at $362.00, April feeders closed $0.55 lower at $360.65 and May feeders closed $0.52 lower at $357.95. The CME feeder cattle index 1/26/2026: up $1.16, $364.73.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex didn't weaken throughout Tuesday's hours as the market successfully closed higher once again. Today was the first time in multiple trading days that pork cutout values closed lower, but luckily, trader support remained ample, and cash prices closed higher, too. February lean hogs closed $0.75 higher at $89.05, April lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $96.82 and June lean hogs closed $0.25 higher at $109.37. It will be interesting to see how pork cutout values close Wednesday afternoon, as most of the cuts closed lower Tuesday afternoon. Pork cutouts totaled 275.54 loads with 240.40 loads of pork cuts and 35.14 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.57, $95.69. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.57 with a weighted average price of $84.82. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/23/2026: up $0.39, $84.01.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers were slightly more aggressive in Tuesday's market, but they still don't likely have enough support for the entire week yet.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Trend Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts have traded mixed thus far throughout the day, but thankfully as Tuesday's noon hour approaches, the contracts are seeming to find more trader support. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. March corn is down 1 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 341.64 points and NASDAQ is up 229.40 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Up until the last hour, the live cattle market was trading mostly lower as traders seemed overwhelmed by the market's technical resistance. Lo and behold, as the noon hour nears, another gust of support has seemed to overcome the live cattle complex. February live cattle are up $0.15 at $236.15, April live cattle are down $0.22 at $237.77 and June live cattle are down $0.02 at $233.60. The market doesn't however seem confident in either direction as it's longing to see continued fundamental support to justify a higher trend. And it's not likely that enough support will develop until we see what happens in this week's fed cash cattle trade, which could mean a teeter-totter like behavior today in the futures complex. Still no trade has developed in the fed cash cattle complex and it's mostly likely that trade will be delayed until Thursday at the earliest and likely wait until Friday. It is assumed that prices will trend higher again this week as fed cash cattle supplies are tight, and packers can't afford to be short bought.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.37 ($369.27) and select down $2.55 ($364.57) with a movement of 59 loads (42.36 loads of choice, 4.51 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 12.24 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex isn't trading in the exact same manner as the live cattle complex is, as its market is taking more of a mixed approach into Tuesday's noon hour. More than anything, traders seem to want to keep the feeder cattle contracts aligned with the overall direction of the live cattle market. At the same time, traders know supplies are likely to remain thin in the near term and see that as a justification to keep the furthest deferred contracts trading higher. March feeders are down $0.07 at $362.52, April feeders are down $0.10 at $361.10 and May feeders are down $0.02 at $358.45.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mostly higher into Tuesday's noon hour, although a couple of the nearby contacts are trading slightly lower. February lean hogs are up $0.17 at $88.47, April lean hogs down $0.15 at $96.55 and June lean hogs are up $0.10 at $109.22. More than anything, the market's uptick in consumer demand seems to be encouraging traders to continue to push the complex higher.

Hog prices are again not available on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 645 head have traded, and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $80.86. Pork cutouts total 133.63 loads with 120.79 loads of pork cuts and 12.84 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.62, $97.88. The projected lean hog index for 1/26/2026 is up $0.42 at $84.43, and the actual index for 1/23/2026 is up $0.39 at $84.01.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May Stabilize Until Cash Trades

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures extended their gains, testing the top end of the recent trading range. Futures are poised to make another leg higher as cash is again expected to be higher this week. Feedlots are not going to settle for anything less and will hold out for higher cash. There is no concern about holding heavier-weight cattle, as it has been a benefit for feedlots. Packers are reducing their slaughter pace to improve boxed beef prices and back up cattle in the country, but to no avail. Cattle supplies are tight, rendering this a useless endeavor at this time. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice down $0.02 and select up $4.73.

Hog futures continue to make new contract highs. The only exception is the nearby February contract, as it has only about two weeks of trading remaining. The June contract joined the July contract in trading over $109. The cash market was lower with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report down $0.31. However, pork cutouts continue to increase with a gain of $1.51 on Monday, and a value of $97.26. The strength in the market is coming from demand and the increase in pork prices. With the increase in pork cutout prices indicating an increase in demand, packers may become more aggressive in the cash market.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	There is little reason to believe that cattle prices will decline anytime soon. Cattle supplies are tight, and demand remains strong.	1)	The packers' reduction in slaughter may eventually have an impact on the feedlots, as they will need to move some cattle due to holding them being unprofitable.
2)	Boxed beef prices have been trending higher again and may continue in that direction as consumers prefer beef, and it is now at the top of the food pyramid.	2)	Cattle futures seem to be struggling to trend higher, possibly indicating a level of resistance that could be difficult to penetrate.
3)	Pork cutout prices have been trending higher and are expected to continue that way for a time.	3)	Hog futures are significantly overbought and may correct at any time.
4)	New highs in hog futures continue to bring new buying interest into the market as traders trade with the trend.	4)	Packers remain unaggressive in hogs and are able to purchase what they need without difficulty. There is no shortage.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Willingly Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mostly higher Monday afternoon as traders are pleased with the fundamental support that the market has been seeing. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas, and Nebraska/Colorado. March corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $5.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 313.69 points and the NASDAQ is up 100.12 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex traded higher throughout the day as the market was thrilled to note the stronger trade that developed late last week in the fed cash cattle complex. February live cattle closed $1.12 higher at $236.02, April live cattle closed $1.07 higher at $238.00 and June live cattle closed $1.12 higher at $233.62. The market is close to reaching resistance pressure, but that didn't put a damper on the market's morale throughout Monday's trade. Do note that later this week, the Bi-Annual Cattle Inventory report is set to be released, which will disclose whether or not the US beef cowherd has been maintaining steady numbers, or if producers have been fixated on growing their cowherds. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 100,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and 13,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $233 to $235, which is steady to $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $370, which is $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. And the total volume traded in the fed cash cattle market totaled 73,362 head, of which 81% (59,447 head) were committed for the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 19% (13,915 head) were committed to the market's deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.02 ($368.90) and select up $4.73 ($367.12) with a movement of 97 loads (62.69 loads of choice, 11.01 loads of select, 10.22 loads of trim and 12.97 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that fed cattle supplies are thin right now, feedlot managers will again aim to trade cattle higher this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex enjoyed a modest rally throughout the day as the market was thrilled to note the strong developments last week in the fed cash cattle complex, and was willing to quickly forget about the neutral Cattle on Feed report. January feeders closed $1.90 higher at $366.70, March feeders closed $2.42 higher at $362.60 and April feeders closed $2.45 higher at $361.20. Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, did not have their weekly sale this week as a major storm moved across much of the county last weekend, and conditions aren't expected to improve until mid-week. The CME feeder cattle index 1/23/2026: up $0.09, $363.57.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mostly higher as traders are pleased with the consumer support they've seen recently in the market. And what was especially supportive to note about pork prices this afternoon is that the vast majority of the major cuts closed higher, showing strong, stable demand. February lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $88.30, April lean hogs closed $0.55 higher at $96.72 and June lean hogs closed $0.62 higher at $109.12. Pork cutouts totaled 215.89 loads with 185.94 loads of pork cuts and 29.95 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.51, $97.26. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.31 with a weighted average price of $83.25 on 890 head. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 426,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 55,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean hog index 1/22/2026: down $0.55, $83.62.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Packers haven't been very aggressive in the cash market lately, but if pork demand sees stable demand, they may become more aggressive.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Drive Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is off to a stronger start the week, as traders are noting more than enough fundamental support to justify trading the contracts higher. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas, and Nebraska/Colorado. March corn is down 2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $5.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 186.92 points and the NASDAQ is up 178.84 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Last Friday was a whirlwind of developing factors for the live cattle market to note and keep track of, between the fed cash cattle that finally developed, and the monthly Cattle on Feed report that was released. Thankfully, the neutral to slightly bearish tone of the Cattle on Feed report was quickly overlooked by the strong developments in the fed cash cattle market, as traders have elected to again push the live cattle contracts higher today. February live cattle are up $0.67 at $235.57, April live cattle are up $0.45 at $237.40 and June live cattle are up $0.57 at $233.07. What will remain an obstacle for the market to manage this week is the technical resistance that's formed in the live cattle complex. There's an argument to be made that the market could potentially break through that barrier if fed cash cattle prices are higher again this week, but that's taking a fairly bullish look at the marketplace. Even if prices do trade higher again this week, there's a strong likelihood that traders won't want to challenge that threshold, especially considering that later this week, the highly anticipated Cattle Inventory report is set to be released. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas, and Nebraska/Colorado.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded mostly at $233 to $235, which is mostly steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $370, which is $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.33 ($369.25) and select up $3.58 ($365.97) with a movement of 50 loads (32.53 loads of choice, 3.84 loads of select, 4.95 loads of trim and 8.53 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are also trading higher as the market finds power and momentum in the fact that fed cash cattle prices continue to scale higher. March feeders are up $0.72 at $360.90, April feeders are up $0.82 at $359.57 and May feeders are up $0.92 at $356.97. So long as the live cattle contracts continue to trade higher, the feeder cattle complex will also likely do the same.

LEAN HOGS:

And last but not least, the lean hog contracts are also enjoying a mild rally into midday Monday. February lean hogs are down $0.07 at $88.27, April lean hogs are up $0.60 at $96.77 and June lean hogs are up $0.70 at $109.20. The market has seen steady support from consumers, which has helped encourage the contracts to continue to trade higher, although the market is continuing to drive to new contract highs when it does so.

The projected lean hog index for 1/23/2026 is up $0.39 at $84.01 and the actual index for 1/22/2026 is up $0.55 at $83.62. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because no hogs have traded yet. The only thing we can note from the report is that the market's five-day rolling average sits at $80.86. Pork cutouts total 120.78 loads with 100.24 loads of pork cuts and 20.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.62, $97.37.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Trading Expected to Begin the Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It took until Friday for cash cattle to trade again, and it was well worth the wait. Southern live cattle traded steady to $2.00 higher, while Northern dressed traded $5.00 higher. Packers keep holding out, hoping for something that would reduce cash prices for cattle, but the wait has no impact. Feedlots know that supplies are tight, and they have little need to move the cattle they hold. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $1.47 and select up $0.66. The Cattle on Feed report may not be much of a market mover. It was considered neutral overall, with placements a bit bearish because it was higher than expected. One feed as of Dec. 1 was 96.9%, placements in November were 94.6%, and marketings were 102%. The Commitment of Traders report showed the fund traders increasing their long positions in live cattle by 1,122 contracts to a net long of 101,471. The net-long position in feeder cattle increased by 357 futures contracts to 17,405.

Hogs were mixed moving into the weekend. The substantial moves higher during the week prompted some profit-taking into the weekend in the nearby months. There was no fundamental reason for the slight decline in some contracts, as the trend remains higher, and demand seems to be improving. New contract highs were made on Friday. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed an increase of $0.47. It is usual to see cash strength on Fridays. Pork cutouts were higher, posting a gain of $1.13. The Commitment of Traders report showed the fund traders adding 13,558 futures contracts, bringing their net-long position to 92,216.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The continued tight cattle supplies keep the market supported, and packers have to bid up to obtain the cattle they need.	1)	Cattle futures have not been able to break through technical resistance. A neutral Cattle on Feed report may keep the upside limited for now.
2)	The Cattle on Feed report was neutral and may not influence the market much today. The placement number being a little higher than estimated should not harm the market.	2)	The cattle market seems to be tired, and higher prices may be more difficult to unfold. This may be the level it remains at for a while.
3)	The trend in hog futures remains up, providing confidence for traders to buy and hold.	3)	Hog futures have had a substantial run higher, and it may be near the level at which a price retracement may take place.
4)	Pork cutouts are finding good support with the price trending higher. This indicates good demand.	4)	There may be limited upside strength for hog prices as there are sufficient hogs available and ready for the market.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Prices Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed as the cattle contracts closed slightly higher, but lean hog contracts ended the day mixed. Throughout the day, Southern live cattle traded anywhere from $233 to $236, which is steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $370, which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. March corn is up 6 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $3.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 285.30 points and the NASDAQ is up 65.22 points.

Friday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,400 mt for 2026 were primarily for Hong Kong (3,700 mt), Japan (3,100 mt) and Mexico (2,500 mt). Pork net sales of 33,200 mt for 2026 were primarily for Mexico (11,800 mt), South Korea (5,100 mt) and Japan (3,400 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Between noting the morning's export sales report, finally seeing some cash cattle trade develop, and noting the day's Cattle on Feed report, there was plenty to mull over in the cattle complex today.

Although it took until the week's bitter end for traders to jump into gear and fully support the complex, Friday saw a substantial technical jump as traders were pleased to see fed cash cattle prices trade higher. February live cattle closed $2.52 higher at $234.90, April live cattle closed $2.10 higher at $236.92 and June live cattle closed $1.60 higher at $232.50. Throughout the day, Southern live cattle traded anywhere from $233 to $236, which is steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $370, which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 84,000 head, 8,000 head less than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 4,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 535,000 head, 27,000 head less than a week ago and 58,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.47 ($368.92) and select up $0.66 ($362.39) with a movement of 123 loads (82.07 loads of choice, 11.97 loads of select, 8.43 loads of trim and 20.37 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With fed cattle supplies thin, packers will likely need to buy aggressively again in next week's market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex didn't see the gains the live cattle market did, but its market was able to close higher nonetheless. But in patiently waiting to see what the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report was going to unveil, traders helped the feeder cattle contracts just slightly above steady prices. January feeders closed $1.07 higher at $364.80, March feeders closed $0.90 higher at $360.17 and April feeders closed $0.80 higher at $358.75. The Cattle on Feed report was truly a mixed bag to absorb, as some parts of the report were bullish, but other parts weren't as bullish as one would have assumed they would be. It's likely that on Monday morning, traders find the report to be neutral at best. DTN's USDA Jan. 1 Cattle on Feed Report:

The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, feeder steers and steer calves traded $3.00 to $7.00 lower and feeder heifers traded $1.00 to $3.00 lower. Heifer calves weighing over 450 pounds sold $6.00 to $11.00 lower, but heifers under 450 pounds traded $20.00 to $25.00 lower. Slaughter cows traded steady to $2.00 lower, and slaughter bulls traded $2.00 lower. The sale report did note that, "caution defined this week's trend as buyers pulled back ahead of an upcoming winter storm that is expected to bring heavy snow and ice." Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 65%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/22/2026: down $1.75, $363.48.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mixed with its nearby contracts ending the day slightly lower, while the deferred months maintained a higher position. February lean hogs closed $0.12 lower at $88.35, April lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $96.17 and June lean hogs closed $0.12 lower at $108.50. More than anything, it seemed as though the nearby lean hog contracts ran into some technical exhaustion ahead of the weekend, which put a damper on their recent rally. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.47 with a weighted average price of $83.56 on 1,001 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.45. Pork cutouts totaled 283.85 loads with 255.69 loads of pork cuts and 28.16 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.13, $95.75. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 438,000 head, 41,000 head less than a week ago and 48,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 160,000 head. The CME lean hog index 1/21/2026: up $0.67, $83.07.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers haven't been buying much in the cash hog market, and that won't likely change on Monday.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cash Cattle Begin to Trade, Steady to $5.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thus far, it's been a rallying day for the cattle complex, while the lean hog contracts trade mixed. Some light cash cattle trade has developed in the South at $233 and some Northern business has been noted at $370 which is $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. March corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $3.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 243.65 points and the NASDAQ is up 121.64 points.

Friday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,400 mt for 2026 were primarily for Hong Kong (3,700 mt), Japan (3,100 mt) and Mexico (2,500 mt). Pork net sales of 33,200 mt for 2026 were primarily for Mexico (11,800 mt), South Korea (5,100 mt) and Japan (3,400 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading sharply higher into midday Friday as traders have grown more confident, and some light cash cattle trade has developed. February live cattle are up $2.80 at $235.17, April live cattle are up $2.60 at $237.42 and June live cattle are up $2.35 at $233.25. Some light trade has been reported mostly in the South at $233 which is fully steady with last week's weighted average. And some Northern dressed cattle have also traded at $370 which is $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Do note that later this afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report is set to be unveiled and more cash cattle trade will likely develop after that.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.25 ($368.70) and select down $0.43 ($361.30) with a movement of 80 loads (57.92 loads of choice, 10.00 loads of select, 5.90 loads of trim and 6.05 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading slightly higher, but its gusto this morning hasn't been as aggressive or notable as the live cattle market's, which could potentially be because demand in the countryside has been slightly off. January feeders are up $1.87 at $365.60, March feeders are up $1.72 at $361.00 and April feeders are up $1.22 at $359.17. This afternoon's Cattle on Feed report is likely going to show a bullish outlook for the feeder cattle complex as placements are again anticipated to be lower than a year ago.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed as the nearby contracts are trading a bit lower while the deferred months continue to scale higher. February lean hogs are down $0.05 at $88.42, April lean hogs are down $0.15 at $96.20 and June lean hogs are down $0.07 at $108.55. The nearby contracts are likely trading lower as the market experiences some technical exhaustion following the sharp rally the market has recently seen.

The projected lean hog index for 1/22/2026 is up $0.55 at $83.62 and the actual index for 1/21/2026 is up $0.67 at $83.07. Hog prices average $80.86 on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, with a total movement of 432 head and a five-day rolling average of $80.86 as well. Pork cutouts total 162.71 loads with 145.74 loads of pork cuts and 16.97 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.46, $96.08.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Prices Ahead of the Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures could not find traction on Thursday, with futures closing mixed. Cash cattle did not trade with packers maybe waiting until the Cattle on Feed report is released. The estimates for the report are for on-feed numbers on Jan. 1 at 96.8% with a range of 96.0%-97.6% compared to January 2025. Placements in December are at 93.1% with a range of 88.0%-95.1%. Marketed in December at 101.7 with a range of 100.0%-102.0%. The Make America More Ground Beef (MAMGB), is an initiative designed to help dairy farmers monetize surplus dairy-origin cattle, increase domestic beef supply, and help lower grocery prices for beef. Western United Dairies is promoting this idea. It is not a mandate, but a voluntary program open to all U.S. dairy operations, potentially launching as early as this spring. Western United Dairies shares that the MAMGB program aims to divert 800,000 to 1 million additional dairy-origin cattle in spring 2026, injecting an estimated 900 million to 1.1 billion pounds of lean trim into the ground beef market. They claim it will lower retail ground beef prices by 18% to 25%, but also increase beef demand due to the lower prices. It seems like this would offset each other, leaving the market with prices as they are.

Hog futures continue to find support with contracts making new highs. The July contract closed above $1.09. Cash traded lower with the National Daily Afternoon Hog report down $2.04. Fortunately, pork cutouts gained $0.64, with a value of $94.62. Pork demand seems to be improving, as seen by the stronger cutouts. Packers have not been as aggressive, resulting in improved margins. Traders may take some profits ahead of the weekend but will retain most of their long positions.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle placements are expected to be significantly lower than a year ago, indicating tight supplies will continue.	1)	Cattle futures are having a difficult time breaking through resistance to the upside.
2)	Cattle marketings in December are expected to be above those of a year earlier. Consumer demand remains strong.	2)	Packers may not be aggressive in the cash market again this week. This would keep a lid on the price.
3)	Hog futures continue to make new highs, providing increased confidence for traders to hold long positions.	3)	Hog futures are overbought and may correct into the weekend. Traders may be cautious in case unexpected news surfaces.
4)	Pork cutouts have been increasing, indicating improved consumer demand.	4)	Packers likely have sufficient hogs purchased and may not be aggressive today, resulting in lower cash prices.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Dip Lower While Hogs Scale Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex kept its mixed tone through Thursday's close as the lean hog complex ended slightly higher while the cattle contracts closed a tick lower. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. March corn is up 2 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $4.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 306.78 points and NASDAQ is up 211.20 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a quiet day of waiting as the market merely sat idle, trading along both sides of steady seeming to wait for trade to develop in the fed cash cattle market. A single bid of $232 was offered in Nebraska, but no cattle traded. It's most likely cattle will wait to trade until after Friday's Cattle on Feed report is unveiled. February live cattle closed $0.72 lower at $232.37, April live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $234.82 and June live cattle closed $0.02 higher at $230.90. As a side note, the market continues to hover over its 100-day moving average, which will be a threshold the market needs to continue to monitor moving forward as a close below that price point would signal a downward trend. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.34 ($367.45) and select down $0.72 ($361.73) with a movement of 95 loads (62.91 loads of choice, 9.40 loads of select, 3.81 loads of trim and 19.16 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. With the market's tone being lackadaisical this week, the expectation that prices will trade higher may not come to fruition. Yes, supplies of market-ready cattle are still low, and there's still that chance, but prices could also just be steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

And once again, keeping in alignment with the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts also closed mixed with the nearby contracts ending mostly lower while the deferred contracts closed slightly higher. March feeders closed $0.10 lower at $359.27, April feeders closed $0.17 lower at $357.95 and May feeders closed $0.10 lower at $355.47. On Friday the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released, but it's not expected to yield anything wild -- placements should be lower than a year ago. At Torrington Livestock Auction in Torrington, Wyoming, compared to last week feeder steers and heifers traded $5.00 to $9.00 lower with instances of $13.00 lower. The sale report did note that there weren't as many buyers in the crowd this week and online activity was lower too. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 58%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 1/21/2026: down $0.27, $367.41.

LEAN HOGS:

It was another rallying day for the lean hog complex as the market closed slightly higher -- fueled by strong consumer support and more than sufficient trader interest. February lean hogs closed $0.62 higher at $88.47, April lean hogs closed $0.75 higher at $96.35 and June lean hogs closed $0.45 higher at $108.62. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.04 with a weighted average price of $83.09 on 591 head. Pork cutouts totaled 231.28 loads with 206.78 loads of pork cuts and 24.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.64, $94.62. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 27,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 1/20/2026: up $0.37, $82.40.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's likely packers are essentially done buying in this week's cash hog market.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Hogs Inch Higher While Cattle Hold Steady

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into midday Thursday, with the lean hog contracts trending higher while the cattle market trades mostly lower. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and no bids are currently on the table. March corn is up 1 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 475.19 points and the NASDAQ is up 246.09 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With still no lofty developments yet in this week's fed cash cattle market, the live cattle contracts are trading mostly lower into midday Thursday. It's also not been helpful that midday boxed beef prices are lower, which is a seasonal trend for this time, but either way, it doesn't "feel" good to a market that's looking for increased fundamental support. February live cattle are down $0.62 at $232.47, April live cattle are down $0.20 at $234.75 and June live cattle are up $0.02 at $230.90. Asking prices are noted in the North at $370 but are still not established in the South. Trade could likely be delayed until after Friday's Cattle on Feed report.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.22 ($365.89) and select down $2.41 ($360.04) with a movement of 56 loads (36.72 loads of choice, 5.00 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 14.19 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is continuing to trade mixed, and the market is again following in the wake of the live cattle complex. January feeders are up $0.50 at $363.72, March feeders are down $0.17 at $359.20 and April feeders are down $0.20 at $357.92. The market will likely maintain a sideways chop until Friday's Cattle on Feed report is released.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is back to trading higher as traders are seeing continued support in pork demand and are willing to scale the contracts higher even though the market is already trading at new contract highs in the spot April contract. February lean hogs are up $0.25 at $88.10, April lean hogs are up $0.50 at $96.10 and June lean hogs are up $).17 at $108.35. The cash market is trading in a thin manner again today, but packers did buy over 2,000 head in Wednesday's market, which is a "big" movement compared to recent days.

The projected lean hog index for 1/21/2026 is up $0.67 at $83.07, and the actual index for 1/20/2026 is up $0.37 at $82.40. Hog prices are again unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 150 head have traded this morning. Pork cutouts totaled 131.84 loads with 113.80 loads of pork cuts and 18.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.60, $94.58.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Have Been Unable to Regain Friday's Losses

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders are trying to remain optimistic but are not yet ready to commit after the weakness on Friday. The cash cattle trade last week did not perform as well as hoped, keeping traders cautious over the cash trade this week. Boxed beef increased on Wednesday, with choice up $1.35 and choice up $2.61. There is no indication as to the potential for cash this week, as no bids or offers have been posted. Feedlots have been holding on to cattle, resulting in heavier weights. This has paid off, but there comes a point at which those cattle need to be moved, or they will cease being cost-effective. If packers remain unaggressive, greater selling interest may surface. The interest in feeder cattle and calves has not been as strong this week, with some of it due to the current weather conditions.

Hog futures continue to show surprising strength. Greater fundamental support is developing that may provide more confidence for traders to hold and/or add to long positions. The June and later contracts closed at new highs. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $4.94. Packers have been more aggressive recently, possibly indicating market-ready hogs may not be as plentiful as thought. Pork cutout values increased by $0.51. Weekly hog weights dropped 4.9 pounds last week to average 292.8 pounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feedlots have not posted any offers so far this week. They may wait and see if there is any indication that packers might be more aggressive.	1)	There is uncertainty whether cash cattle will trade higher this week. Steady to lower cash may unfold.
2)	Boxed beef prices have been showing some strength, indicating demand remains strong. This may give traders more confidence to hold long positions.	2)	Cattle futures remain overbought, which could result in a further price correction.
3)	Weekly hog weights dropped 3.9 pounds to an average of 292.8 pounds. This may indicate marketings are becoming current and the supply of hogs may not be as large as thought.	3)	Weekly hog weights remain higher than a year ago at 292.8 pounds, 1.1 pounds higher than a year ago.
4)	The June and later hog contracts continue to close at new contract highs. Traders will continue to trade with the trend.	4)	Many believe hog supplies will remain available for slaughter in the coming months. This would limit the upside price potential.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Mildly Support Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mostly higher Wednesday afternoon as traders continue to desire to see the contracts scale higher. The market hasn't seen any fed cash cattle trade develop yet. March corn is down 2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 588.64 points and the NASDAQ is up 270.50 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was again able to close slightly higher as traders desire to see the market trade higher but aren't willing to push the market aggressively without seeing further fundamental support. As of this point, still no cash cattle trade has developed, and really, the market's tone throughout the day was rather quiet. No asking prices have been noted yet in either the North or the South. February live cattle closed $0.72 higher at $233.10, April live cattle closed $0.37 higher at $234.95 and June live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $230.87. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.35 ($366.11) and select up $2.61 ($362.45) with a movement of 138 loads (89.52 loads of choice, 11.38 loads of select, 8.15 loads of trim and 28.70 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that supplies of fed cattle are thin, it's likely that prices will be higher this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex again followed the live cattle market's trend through the day's close. More than anything, traders felt comfortable allowing the contracts to end slightly higher but weren't willing to aggressively push the market, as still no fed cash cattle trade has developed, and demand in the countryside for calves this week has been mixed. March feeders are closed $1.70 higher at $359.37, April feeders closed $1.67 higher at $358.12 and May feeders closed $1.67 higher at $355.57. At the Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week, feeder steers under 550 pounds traded steady while steers over 550 pounds sold mostly $1.00 to $3.00 lower. Feeder heifers sold unevenly steady across all weight classes. The CME feeder cattle index 1/20/2026: down $0.27, $367.41.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed fully higher as the market continues to see ample trader support. February lean hogs closed steady at $87.85, April lean hogs closed $0.42 higher at $95.60 and June lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $108.17. It was positive to note that both cash prices and pork cutout values closed higher, but potentially the biggest positive note about the afternoon was seeing a sizeable movement in the cash market. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $4.94 with a weighted average price of $85.13 on 3,515 head. Pork cutouts totaled 250.59 loads with 220.48 loads of pork cuts and 30.11 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.51, $93.98. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 495,000 head, steady with a week ago and 56,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/19/2026: up $0.27, $82.03.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers were more aggressive today than they've been in recent weeks, it's likely that they won't have to be aggressive in the days to come.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Continue to Let Contracts Trade Mildly Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly higher into midday Wednesday as traders remain eager to support the marketplace. No cash cattle trade has developed, but a single bid is currently being offered in Kansas at $233. March corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 261.56 points and the NASDAQ is up 37.27 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex continues to trade mildly higher as the market is in a bit of a sweet spot. Currently, traders can allow the contracts to climb slightly higher without fears of immediate resistance pressure following last week's sharp decline. But at the same time, traders don't feel pressure to trade the contracts sharply higher as no cash cattle trade has developed yet. There is currently a single big on the table in Kansas at $233, but as of this point, no business has developed and asking prices remain elusive. February live cattle are up $0.57 at $232.95, April live cattle are up $0.30 at $234.87 and June live cattle are up $0.25 at $230.85.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.42 ($366.18) and select up $2.41 ($362.25) with a movement of 91 loads (55.81 loads of choice, 8.47 loads of select, 6.97 loads of trim and 19.48 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is again trading in the same manner as the live cattle market, as its contracts are also trading moderately higher. January feeders are up $1.27 at $363.90, March feeders are up $1.25 at $358.92 and April feeders are up $1.22 at $357.67. So long as the live cattle complex continues to trade higher this afternoon, the feeder cattle contracts should be able to close higher as well.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mostly sideways, keeping a slightly higher tone but unwilling to advance the market without seeing stronger fundamental support. Yes, midday pork cutout values are higher, which is a perk, but at the same time, the cash market remains a fickle one to watch as movement in the cash complex has been relatively thin. February lean hogs are down $0.10 at $87.75, April lean hogs are up $0.07 at $95.25 and June lean hogs are up $0.07 at $108.15.

The projected lean hog index for 1/20/2026 is up $0.37 at $82.40 and the actual index for 1/19/2026 is up $0.27 at $82.03. Hog prices are again unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that 2,405 head have traded this morning. Pork cutouts total 138.67 loads with 122.29 loads of pork cuts and 16.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.94, $94.41.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Fought for Tuesday's Small Gains

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Tuesday was a volatile day of trading for live cattle and feeder cattle markets after Friday's sharp downward turn. Rumors of New World screwworm bring uncertainty as more and more cases approach the border. Fundamentally not much has changed to adjust demand or herd size, but the number of funds investing in the livestock sector shows how much momentum we have to lose if the big money gets nervous. The feeder cattle index fell $1.26 Tuesday as a reflection of the price action seen in the futures market Friday. It is expected to recover some midweek.

Hog futures were mixed to start out the trading week. The nearby months traded lower to unchanged while the deferred months were higher. Meat demand in general is strong and with the funds still buying lean hog futures contracts, the trend is expected to continue higher.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Commitment of Traders report shows funds still actively buying live cattle futures as well as lean hog futures. The momentum is on the producer's side as the big money is wanting to invest in commodities and cattle and hogs have the demand story.	1)	New World screwworm was not found in the United States despite rumors last week. However, the fear is out there in the market and those with big, long positions are on edge as new cases approach the border every day.
2)	The newly released food pyramid released last week shows a focus of whole foods, lean meats and healthy fats. Consumer bias has proven to follow recommended guidelines in the past and the future looks bright for meat demand.	2)	The official closing of the Lexington, Nebraska, facility and the Amarillo, Texas, plant cutting hours is not great news for the cattle markets. With less processing capacity, this will put pressure on kill numbers.
3)	Hog futures are showing more long-term optimism despite a day of less nearby support.	3)	Hog futures have been on a roll lately making new highs. Profit taking is likely as traders have had a nice run of this rally and want to reward the market.
4)	Slaughter numbers are strong for hogs year over year and that is expected to continue into the second quarter.	4)	Hog traders are closely watching slaughter numbers and waiting for a pullback in cutout values.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts Close Mostly Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mostly higher as traders have been eager to advance the contracts. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and it's likely trade won't develop until Thursday or Friday. March corn is down 1 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $1.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 870.74 points and the NASDAQ is down 561.07 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following Friday's big flop, the live cattle complex was able to close slightly higher Tuesday afternoon as traders continue to hope that fundamental support will improve and that the complex will be able to continue an upward trend. February live cattle closed $0.22 higher at $232.37, April live cattle closed $0.60 higher at $234.57 and June live cattle closed $1.00 higher at $230.60. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and the market won't likely see trade until Thursday or Friday. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head, 7,000 head less than a week and a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.43 ($364.76) and select down $0.49 ($359.84) with a movement of 118 loads (80.22 loads of choice, 14.45 loads of select, 5.45 loads of trim and 17.39 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. The fact remains that supplies are thin, and in order to secure enough inventory for the next couple of months, packers can't afford to sit idle.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was also able to close slightly higher Tuesday afternoon as the market mainly followed in the wake of the live cattle market's trend. January feeders closed $0.70 higher at $362.62, March feeders closed $1.22 higher at $357.67 and April feeders closed $1.55 higher at $356.45. More than anything, today's higher close came as traders were willing to advance the contracts following Friday's plunge, as the contracts were no longer up against immediate resistance pressure. At the Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder cattle and calves traded mostly steady to $4.00 lower on lesser quality and increased flesh. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 58%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/19/2026: down $1.26, $367.68.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mixed as the nearby contracts closed lower while the deferred contracts were able to keep with their upward trend. February lean hogs closed $0.42 lower at $87.85, April lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $95.17 and June lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $108.07. The market has officially topped into new contract highs, and it will be vital that demand remains strong in order to sustain these levels. Hog prices averaged $80.19 on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with a total movement of 1,790 head. Pork cutouts total 294.94 loads with 246.33 loads of pork cuts and 48.60 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.73, $93.47. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 493,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/16/2026: up $0.76, $81.76.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers haven't been very aggressive in the cash market lately, and up until this point, that trend hasn't traded.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Help Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading higher into midday Tuesday following last Friday's sharp decline in the cattle complex. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and won't likely until later in the week. March corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 538.07 points and the NASDAQ is down 352.12 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following last Friday's sharp decline, the live cattle complex is cautiously trading higher into midday Tuesday. February live cattle are up $0.75 at $232.85, April live cattle are up $1.05 at $235.02 and June live cattle are up $1.32 at $230.92. The spot April contract is hovering above the market's 100-day moving average, which remains a very critical threshold to monitor, as a close below that price point could signal continued downward pressure. Still nothing has developed in this week's fed cash cattle market and won't likely until Thursday or Friday. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, about steady in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Texas.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.99 ($366.32) and select down $0.79 ($359.54) with a movement of 54 loads (42.95 loads of choice, 6.13 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 5.24 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And much like the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts are trading slightly higher into midday Tuesday following last Friday's severe break. The feeder cattle complex will likely continue to follow in the live cattle market's wake, waiting and hoping for increased fundamental support. January feeders are up $1.10 at $363.02, March feeders are up $1.82 at $358.27 and April feeders are up $2.17 at $357.07.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading higher into midday Tuesday, seeming technically unafraid that the market is breaking into new contract highs in the spot April contract. February lean hogs are steady at $88.27, April lean hogs are up $0.25 at $95.45 and June lean hogs are up $0.87 at $108.37. It is worth noting that pork cutouts are higher, but it will remain critical that fundamental support remains strong this week if traders are going to keep their momentum in the market.

The projected lean hog index for 1/16/2026 is up $0.76 at $81.76, and the actual index for 1/15/2026 is up $0.50 at $81.00. Hog prices are again unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 715 head have traded. Pork cutouts total 182.66 loads with 146.84 loads of pork cuts and 35.82 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.10, $94.30.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Are Expected to Rebound

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The trading action in cattle shows how vulnerable the market will be if a case of the New World screwworm (NWS) is found in the U.S. A rumor circulated that one was detected, immediately impacting the market. However, that is false as there has been no confirmation of a case. This should cause the market to rebound today as traders may turn into buyers again due to positive fundamentals. Feeder cattle led the charge lower and will lead the charge higher. However, traders may retain a level of caution just to make sure. The cash cattle trade was a bit disappointing, with prices steady for both Southern live and Northern dressed cattle. Boxed beef prices were higher on Monday, with choice up $1.95 and select up $0.14. The Commitment of Traders report showed the fund traders adding 6,622 futures contracts in live cattle last week, bringing their net-long position to 100,338. They reduced their net-long position in feeder cattle by 343 contracts to 17,048.

Hog futures may maintain support, as on Monday, packers were again not aggressive in the negotiated purchase of hogs, with only 530 head reported. This seems to have become the norm since the holiday season at the end of 2025. Perhaps the same will hold as last week -- once a price change is reported, it may be substantially higher. Packers will need to step back into the market more aggressively at some point. Overall, slaughter continues to exceed last year's levels. Pork cutouts on Monday were higher, with a gain of $0.57, and ribs up $3.07. The Commitment of Traders report showed the funds increasing their net-long position by 261 contracts to a total of 78,658.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The rumor of a case of the New World screwworm is false, according to the government's website. This may result in a rebound.	1)	Traders may remain cautious over the possibility of the New World screwworm being found in the U.S at some point and may be reluctant to step back into the market quickly.
2)	Boxed beef prices were higher on Monday as retail demand remains strong. Consumers prefer beef and continue to consume it.	2)	Cattle futures will need to rebound today, or further liquidation may unfold.
3)	Hog futures made new contract highs again on Friday, keeping the uptrend intact.	3)	Hog futures had three days of good gains and may be ripe for a price retracement.
4)	Fund traders are holding and adding to their long positions in hog futures, remaining confident over continued strong demand.	4)	Hog futures will need to see consistent gains in both cash and cutouts, or the futures may run out of steam.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Complex Plummets Ahead of the Long Weekend

GENERAL COMMENTS:

What a mess of a day it was for the cattle complex. Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts fell sharply as traders were panicked about the news circulating about New World screwworm. Southern live cattle traded at $233, which is steady with last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $365, which is also steady with last week's weighted average. March corn is up 4 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 83.11 points and the NASDAQ is down 14.63 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle down $1.57, April live cattle down $0.70; January feeder cattle up $1.20, March feeder cattle up $1.75; February lean hogs up $2.98, April lean hogs up $3.43; March corn down $0.21, May corn down $0.22.

LIVE CATTLE:

Friday was a change of tune for the live cattle complex as the market was mostly enjoying a sideways trend throughout the earlier part of the week until Friday rolled around. The market opened sharply lower and only continued to trade lower from the day's initial get-go for a number of different reasons: there was mass liquidation from the market ahead of the long-three day weekend, traders were growing antsy waiting for the fed cash cattle market to trade, and last but not least, there was a rumor floating around that New World screwworm was detected in the United States. I don't believe the rumor is true, as the official USDA APHIS (Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service) website states that currently no NWS is present in the US. You can access the website here:

But nevertheless, the board's bearish tone negatively affected the fed cash cattle market as prices merely traded steady with last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at $233, which is steady with last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $365, which is also steady with last week's weighted average.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 92,000 head, 6,000 head more than a week ago and 22,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 1,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 562,000 head, 9,000 head more than a week ago and 63,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.61 ($362.38) and select up $0.48 ($360.19) with a movement of 88 loads (58.86 loads of choice, 7.88 loads of select, 9.05 loads of trim and 11.88 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. The fact remains that fed cattle supplies are tight, and packers are likely going to need more cattle.

FEEDER CATTLE:

If there's one thing that we were again reminded of throughout Friday's trade, it's how fickle and volatile the cattle complex can be. To the best of our knowledge, the rumor about NWS being detected higher in the US is false, but even so, the market opted to err on the side of panic and think later as the feeder cattle contracts plummeted $6.00 to $8.00 lower through Friday's close. January feeders closed $6.50 lower at $361.92, March feeders closed $8.10 lower at $356.45 and April feeders closed $8.02 lower at $354.90. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, feeder steers and steer calves sold $1.00 to $7.00 lower, except those weighing 500 to 550 pounds, which traded $10.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded mostly $1.00 to $5.00 higher. Heifer calves over 500 pounds sold $2.00 to $5.00 lower, but those less than 500 pounds traded $3.00 to $8.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $1.00 to $3.00 lower and slaughter bulls traded $2.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 59%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/15/2026: up $0.73, $370.15.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to maintain a steady increase through Friday's end, even though the cattle complex faced sharp pressure. February lean hogs closed $0.47 higher at $88.27, April lean hogs closed $0.20 higher at $95.20 and June lean hogs closed $0.42 higher at $107.50. The combination of ample trader support mixed with continued consumer demand helped drive the contracts higher through the week's close. Hog prices averaged $74.78 on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with only 376 head being traded and the market's five-day rolling average sitting at $78.75. Pork cutouts totaled 288.47 loads with 247.14 loads of pork cuts and 41.33 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.03, $93.63. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 479,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 171,000 head. The CME lean hog index 1/14/2026: up $0.11, $80.50.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. In recent weeks, packers have hardly been participating in the cash hog market.

Turbulence fades as fundamentals support strong cattle prices

The cattle markets have experienced significant volatility over the past several months. Despite this turbulence, underlying supply and demand fundamentals remain intact. In September, renewed discussions around reopening the U.S.–Mexico border to cattle; expanding Argentine beef imports; and political rhetoric aimed at lowering retail beef prices all contributed to a softening in both futures and cash markets. Seasonal factors also played a role, as calf supplies typically increase during this time of year. Together, these dynamics led to a roughly six-week decline in cattle futures and weakening in the cash market. However, by late December, both futures and cash prices had rebounded to record levels and continue to strengthen in early 2026. This rebound underscores the strength of underlying market fundamentals, and reinforces expectations for sustained and likely higher cattle prices heading into 2026.

Looking ahead to 2026, beef production is expected to decline further. USDA forecasts production at roughly 25.7 billion pounds, down about 1% year over year. However, this outlook appears optimistic, as many analysts anticipate a steeper decline of 2–3%. USDA’s estimate might also have assumed a partial reopening of the U.S.–Mexico border to feeder cattle imports, an outcome under discussion since late 2025. Recent developments suggest reopening is unlikely in the near term. Two cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) were reported in northern Mexico in late December 2025, and one in early January, further complicating prospects for resumed trade.

If the border remains closed, the U.S. feeder cattle supply could be reduced by approximately 5%, or about 1.2 million head. Even if reopening were to occur early in the year, it would likely take several months for the border to become fully operational. Additionally, Mexican feeder cattle typically take up to 12 months from import before they are ready for slaughter, and there remains a risk of renewed border shutdowns similar to those experienced in 2025. These factors point to lower cattle placements for much of 2026.

Competition among packers for cattle is expected to remain intense in 2026, even with a modest reduction in processing facilities. Tyson Foods recently announced the closure of one of its beef processing facilities that accounted for 5% of daily U.S. beef slaughter. With this facility closing, it is estimated that the new capacity utilization will nationally be closer to 90%. Anecdotally, in the Western U.S. meat packers have seen less of an impact and higher utilization compared to plants in the Midwest and Southern U.S. However, in an environment of lower production and sustained demand, cattle producers are positioned for another year of strong cattle prices.

On the consumer side, while political pressure to reduce beef prices continues, strong demand suggests that relief for retail prices is unlikely in the near term. Instead, it may take several years before retail beef prices decline in a sustained and meaningful way. On the export front, global trade dynamics continue to evolve. Brazil is expected to surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest beef exporter in 2025, reflecting productivity gains and competitive pricing that have shifted trade flows. Meanwhile, China’s beef trade policy remains highly volatile. In December, China imposed an additional 55% tariff on beef imports exceeding quota levels from key suppliers, including the U.S., to support its domestic cattle industry. The near-term impact on U.S. exports is expected to be limited. In recent years the U.S. has shipped well below the new quota amount. Modest market access gains are possible in 2026 if China relists additional U.S. facilities, but policy uncertainty remains and exports are unlikely to exceed quota limits in the near term.

Profitability

Cattle feeders: Profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Cow-calf producers: Very profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

Tight calf supplies and robust demand have intensified competition for feeder cattle. Profitability is expected to remain resilient, supported by cost-of-gain efficiencies and strong box beef prices.

Historically tight cattle inventories, limited availability of replacement heifers, and firm calf prices continue to underpin profitability for cow-calf operations.