GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a rallying, robust day for the cattle complex, but the lean hog contracts still ended the day lower. At the time of this writing still no Southern cash cattle trade has developed. December corn is down 20 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $8.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 483.35 points and NASDAQ is up 171.61 points.
From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following change: October live cattle up $6.13, December live cattle up $5.58; October feeder cattle up $9.23, November feeder cattle up $10.80; October lean hogs down $2.83, December lean hogs down $2.30.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex had a splendid day where traders helped drive the contracts well above their current trading range. More than anything it seemed as though the hope that the fed cash cattle market could potentially trade higher had traders willing to invest in the marketplace. At the time of this writing no trade has developed in the South, but bids of $223 were offered and feedlot managers in both Kansas and Texas passed on the offer. Some light trade was noted earlier in the week in Nebraska at $345 which is steady to $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. There's a chance that trade could cut loose and develop at any moment, that it will be drug into the weekend or that packers will go short bought into next week's market.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 94,000 head -- 6,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 5,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 531,000 head -- 17,000 head less than a week ago and 20,000 head less than a year ago.
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of
2026.Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 75 million pounds as slaughter speeds continue to be light compared to years past. Quarter steer prices were unchanged from last month's report, with steers in the fourth quarter of 2026 expected to average $235, steers in the first quarter of 2027 are expected to average $235, steers in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $235 and steers in the third quarter of 2027 are expected to average $240. Beef imports for 2026 were increased by 85 million pounds as Australia continues to send more supply, and exports were unchanged.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.50 ($373.35) and select up $2.57 ($343.30) with a movement of 124 loads (83.14 loads of choice, 8.07 loads of select, 15.30 loads of trim and 17.89 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Before we can say what could potentially happen next week, this week's trade needs to be understood.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Upon seeing the breakout trade in the live cattle complex -- the feeder cattle market couldn't but help itself and trade higher as well. And not only did the market trade higher -- but it ended the day mostly $7.00 higher and pushed the spot November contract well above the market's 100-day moving average. October feeder cattle closed $5.82 higher at $343.85, November feeders closed $7.07 higher at $341.95 and January feeders closed $7.92 higher at $336.35. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, feeder steers traded steady to $2.00 higher and feeder heifers sold steady. Steer calves sold $1.00 to $5.00 lower expect those weighing 400 to 500 pounds which traded $5.00 higher. Heifer calves under 500 pounds sold $5.00 to $15.00 lower but over 500 pounds traded steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/8/2026: up $0.34, $337.07.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog contracts ended the day lower -- disappointed from another week of mostly lower demand. And while yes pork cutout values did close slightly higher Friday afternoon -- that is too little of support too late in the week to do any good. October lean hogs closed $0.77 lower at $75.05, December lean hogs closed $0.77 lower at $67.82 and February lean hogs closed $0.62 lower at $69.25. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.75 with a weighted average price of $74.26 on 884 head. Pork cutouts totaled 297.81 loads with 270.69 loads of pork cuts and 27.12 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.86, $80.50. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 167,000 head. The CME lean hog index 10/7/2026: down $0.50, $78.41.
Friday's WASDE report shared a mixed view for the hog and pork markets of
2026. Pork production for 2026 was decreased by 150 million pounds as
slaughter speeds and carcass weights are lighter than anticipated. Hog prices for 2026 were decreased as pork demand continues to remain under pressure. Hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 are now anticipated to average $55 (down $3.00), hog prices in the first quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $60 (down $1.00), hog prices in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $65 (down $2.00) and hog prices in the third quarter of 2027 are expected to average $68.00. Pork imports for 2026 were increased by five million pounds, while hog exports were decreased by 60 million pounds.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely buy aggressively in the cash market on Mondays.
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