GENERAL COMMENTS:
With ample trader support, the cattle contracts are off like a rocket ship heading into Friday afternoon. Bids are on the table in the cash cattle market, but no new trade has developed just yet. December corn is down 27 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 362.03 points and the NASDAQ is up 152.26 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The wait may have been worth it, as to everyone's surprise the live cattle complex is trading robustly higher into midday Friday.Not only is the market pushing a substantial $2.00 rally in most of its nearby contracts into the afternoon, but the rally has pushed the spot December contract out of its sideways trading range, which is a bold move.October live cattle are up $2.35 at $224.22, December live cattle are up $2.80 at $226.35 and February live cattle are up $2.67 at $228.52. Following Thursday's light trade in the North at $345 (which is steady to $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average), no new trade has developed yet in the fed cash cattle market, but packer interest should improve at any moment. Bids are currently on the table at $220 in Kansas, and at $218 live and $345 dressed in Nebraska.
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 2026.Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 75 million pounds as slaughter speeds continue to be light compared to years past. Quarter steer prices were unchanged from last month's report, with steers in the fourth quarter of 2026 expected to average $235, steers in the first quarter of 2027 are expected to average $235, steers in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $235 and steers in the third quarter of 2027 are expected to average $240. Beef imports for 2026 were increased by 85 million pounds as Australia continues to send more supply, and exports were unchanged.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.15 ($374.70) and select up $4.29 ($356.02) with a movement of 91 loads (57.93 loads of choice, 5.23 loads of select, 11.66 loads of trim and 15.94 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
And if you think the $1.00 to $2.00 rally is exciting in the live cattle complex, take a look at the feeder cattle market, which is currently rallying $5.00 to $7.00 higher. But upon seeing the momentum in the live cattle complex, and upon seeing ample trader support, the market couldn't help but trade higher. October feeders are up $5.20 at $343.22, November feeders are up $6.42 at $341.35 and January feeders are up $7.20 at $335.72.
LEAN HOGS:
And although pork cutout values may be up slightly, it's simply too little support too late in the week to do anything meaningful at this point. October lean hogs are down $0.67 at $75.15, December lean hogs are down $0.77 at $67.82 and February lean hogs are down $0.67 at $69.20. The projected lean hog index for 10/8/2026 is down $0.80 at $77.61 and the actual index for 10/7/2026 is down $0.50 at $78.41. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.92 with a weighted average price of $74.46, ranging from $64.00 to $80.00 on 834 head and a five-day rolling average of $75.01. Pork cutouts total 201.55 loads, with 184.95 loads of pork cuts and 16.60 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.54, $80.18.
Friday's WASDE report shared a mixed view for the hog and pork markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was decreased by 150 million pounds as slaughter speeds and carcass weights are lighter than anticipated. Hog prices for 2026 were decreased as pork demand continues to remain under pressure. Hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 are now anticipated to average $55 (down $3.00), hog prices in the first quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $60 (down $1.00), hog prices in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $65 (down $2.00) and hog prices in the third quarter of 2027 are expected to average $68.00. Pork imports for 2026 were increased by five million pounds, while hog exports were decreased by 60 million pounds.
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