Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Stronger Tones Sweep the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a refreshing day in the livestock complex as all three of the markets are trading higher into Friday's noon hour. This afternoon the industry will be closely watching to see what comes of the Cattle on Feed report and if any more cash cattle trade does indeed develop. March corn is up 5 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $8.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 799.65 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following Thursday's slight derailment in terms of the live cattle contracts' performance, it's refreshing to see the contracts again trading higher on Friday. After plummeting to a level that the spot February contract swooped below the market's 40-day moving average, the additional fundamental support of the cash cattle market's trade seems to set well with the market. I'm hopeful that traders deem the futures market's correction this past week sufficient and that no more immediate downside pressure will surface in the complex again soon. But I know that with their decision to push the contracts lower, all having been for technical reasons, unfortunately, we can't put too much confidence in what the market's fundamentals accomplish. Some more cash cattle trade could develop after the Cattle on Feed report is released, but at this point, the market sits idle with only one bid in Kansas at $191 being shown. This week Northern dressed business has had a range of $303 to $308, mostly $305, $2 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. Southern live deals have been marked at $191, fully steady with last week's weighted averages. Note that Texas has been very quiet with no to little sales reported.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $4.42 ($316.27) and select down $0.55 ($283.56) with a movement of 75 loads (49.08 loads of choice, 12.80 loads of select, 7.33 loads of trim and 5.50 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading higher into Friday's noon hour as the market has seemed to have found some technical stability following Thursday's lower close, and it's also helpful that the fed cash cattle market traded cattle steady to $2.00 higher on Thursday as well. January feeders are up $1.07 at $255.55, March feeders are up $1.35 at $255.92 and April feeders are up $1.27 at $256.72. So long as the live cattle contracts continue to trade in a higher direction, it's likely that the feeder cattle contracts will also be able to round out the week on a stronger note as well.

LEAN HOGS:

Could it be that after some strenuous pressure early this week, the lean hog complex has regained some technical footing in the marketplace? If Friday's direction and technical momentum have anything to do with it – I'd say the answer is yes as today's higher move solely stems from trader objectivity as the market's fundamentals aren't lending support. Please note that on Monday, December 23rd the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released. February lean hogs are up $1.52 at $85.15, April lean hogs are up $1.35 at $89.97 and June lean hogs are up $1.02 at $101.82.

The projected lean hog index for 12/19/2024 is up $0.14 at $84.35, and the actual index for 12/18/2024 is up $0.05 at $84.21. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 345 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $78.99. Pork cutouts total 183.59 loads with 166.55 loads of pork cuts and 17.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.38, $95.97.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Look Ahead to the Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It has not been a good week for cattle with futures declining each day to close at the lowest level since December 9^th. The February contract fell $5.47 over the past four days. This may have established a top at which it will be difficult to regain. However, cash cattle traded steady in the South and $2.00 higher in the North. This may provide support for today's trade. Although the Cattle on Feed report will be released this afternoon, The selling may have been overdone and futures may bounce. The average estimates for the Cattle on Feed report are for on feed as of December 1 at 99.9% of a year ago with the range of estimates for 99.4% to 100.3%. Placements in November at 95.9% with a range of 92.6% to 98.9% and marketed in November at 98.2% with a range of 97.7% to 98.7%. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $5.05 and select down $1.44.

Hog futures traded in a tight range of about $1.00 as uncertainly clouded the market. There is uncertainty about demand in early 2025 and uncertainty over the upcoming Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report to be released on Monday. Today's trading may be confined to positioning ahead of the report. The National Daily Direct Aternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.42 as the packers wanted to finish their weekly purchases. This may leave them less aggressive today as buying is likely finished for the week. The weakness of cutouts may keep a little pressure on the market. Slaughter remains strong as the current demand is holding and hogs need to be processed. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 145,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may be overdone to the downside and may bounce today due to cash cattle trading steady to $2.00 higher.	1)	February feeder cattle futures fell and closed below technical support which could result in further selling pressure to develop.
2)	Technical selling has taken place over the past four days and should have run its course. Traders may have finished positioning themselves ahead of the Cattle on Feed report which may allow futures to bounce.	2)	The recent weakness in cattle futures may be difficult to overcome as export demand has slowed and domestic demand may hold steady at best.
3)	The packers were aggressive buyers in the cash market Thursday indicating continued strong demand for pork.	3)	The recent trend has been down and may continue that way. Each time the market shows strength the level it reaches is lower than the previous rebound.
4)	Hog futures may build support as the market has traded sideways to higher. Nearby contracts have remained sideway with later contracts showing better strength. The Hogs & Pigs report could reflect tighter supplies.	4)	Cash hogs are expected to trade lower today with the packers likely less aggressive next week as they may already have most of their needs covered.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade Steady to $2.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a lousy day throughout the futures complex for the livestock contracts, but the fed cash cattle market did manage to trade cattle for steady to $2.00 higher. Please note that on Friday afternoon, the monthly Cattle on Feed report is set to be released. March corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $4.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 32.38 points.

Thursday's export data showed that beef net sales of 7,200 mt for 2024 were down 35% from the previous week and 5% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (2,200 mt), Japan (1,200 mt) and Taiwan (800 mt). Pork net sales of 11,200 mt for 2024 were down 50% from the previous week and 52% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (2,800 mt), Japan (2,300 mt) and Canada (2,100 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a disappointing day for the live cattle complex in terms of the futures market, but the fed cash cattle market traded positively. Once again, Thursday's lower ascend in the live cattle contracts was all based on technical pressure as traders are anxious about the market's position, and some traders have elected to capitalize on the market's position in terms of profit taking from a money managed funds position. What was disgruntling to see is that the spot February contract closed below its 40-day moving average, which means that the market could face some more technical pressure in the days to come -- regardless of whatever the market's fundamentals do. December live cattle closed $0.95 lower at $190.35, February live cattle closed $1.77 lower at $186.55 and April live cattle closed $1.87 lower at $188.60. Throughout the day there was a light movement of cattle sold, but largely the market hasn't seen many cattle traded yet this week. Dressed deals are being marked at $305, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and live cattle are selling for $191 which is fully steady with last week's weighted average. Some asking prices remain firm, around $193 to $195 in the South and around $307 plus in the North. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $5.85 ($320.69) select down $1.44 ($284.11) with a movement of 98 loads (62.31 loads of choice, 18.75 loads of select, 7.42 loads of trim and 9.34 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Friday's trade will largely boil down to asking: How short bought are packers? If they are close to the knife and desperately in need of cattle, prices will likely trade higher, but if they're flush with their needs for next week given that it's a holiday shortened week, prices will likely remain steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a dreary day for the feeder cattle complex as the market drifted lower all throughout Thursday's trade as technical pressure has been burdensome this week. January feeders closed $2.52 lower at $254.47, March feeders closed $2.80 lower at $254.57 and April feeders closed $2.95 lower at $255.45. Although the fed cash cattle market saw a slight uptick in prices in the few head of cattle that sold late Wednesday afternoon and throughout Thursday's trade, the slight help from the market's fundamentals wasn't enough to reassure traders and ease their anxiousness.

At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week feeder steers and heifers over 600 pounds traded steady, but heifers under 600 pounds sold steady to $15.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 62%. The CME feeder cattle index 12/18/2024: down $0.77, $262.23.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was trading higher ahead of Thursday's noon hour, but as the afternoon grew closer and closer to the day's end, the market followed in the cattle complex's trail and also ended the day weaker. February lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $83.62, April lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $88.62 and June lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $100.80. And although both the cash market and cutout values did close slightly higher, the market's overall unsettledness seemed to be the louder voice that traders paid attention to ahead of the day's close. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.42 with a weighted average price of $79.45. Pork cutouts totaled 269.83 loads with 217.20 loads of pork cuts and 52.63 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.20, $96.15. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 15,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/17/2024: up $0.18, $84.16.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point it's likely that packers have fulfilled the majority of their needs for this week and won't pay much attention to the cash hog market on Friday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Bids Have Surfaced for the Fed Cash Cattle Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is again trading mixed as traders continue to push the cattle contracts lower, but the hog complex is trading slightly higher. Bids have surfaced in the cattle complex, but no new trade has developed. March corn is up 2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 203.44 points.

Thursday's export data showed that beef net sales of 7,200 mt for 2024 were down 35% from the previous week and 5% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (2,200 mt), Japan (1,200 mt) and Taiwan (800 mt). Pork net sales of 11,200 mt for 2024 were down 50% from the previous week and 52% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (2,800 mt), Japan (2,300 mt) and Canada (2,100 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading lower as the market continues to flounder lower and lower. It's been nerve racking to watch the spot February contract dip below the market's 40-day moving average as traders are seeming to throw in the towel, and scramble as they're being pressured by profiting taking from money managed funds. They won't likely find secure and stable confidence in the market's fundamentals this week as the week's lower dive is being technically driven. There were a few sales marked in the North Wednesday at $305, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Bids are currently on the table in both regions where live cattle bids are sitting at mostly $191 in the South and $305 dressed in the North. Asking prices for cattle remain firm at $193 to $195 live in the South and $307 plus in the North.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $6.80 ($321.64) and select up $1.84 ($283.71) with a movement of 55 loads (25.78 loads of choice, 14.14 loads of select, 7.42 loads of trim and 7.54 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

It's been another strenuous and stressful day for the feeder cattle complex as the market continues to plunder lower. Thus far, the live cattle complex hasn't been of any support as it's also trading higher, and although there are bids currently being offered in the fed cash cattle market -- no new trade has developed Thursday. The market is currently remaining above its support plan at $255, which will be a key threshold to monitor through the day's end. January feeders are down $2.10 at $254.90, March feeders are down $2.35 at $255.02 and April feeders are down $2.57 at $255.82.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is back to trading higher as the market has seemed to find some technical footing at Wednesday's close. The day's higher trend isn't being fueled by fundamental support, however as pork cutout values are down, the day's export sales report was lousy, and there weren't enough cash hogs traded Thursday morning to even be reported publicly. February lean hogs are up $0.30 at $84.02, April lean hogs are up $0.27 at $89.17 and June lean hogs are up $0.42 at $101.17.

The projected lean hog index for 12/18/2024 is up $0.05 at $84.21, and the actual index for 12/17/2024 is up $0.18 at $84.16. Hog prices are not available on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 345 head have traded Thursday morning and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $78.99. Pork cutouts total 183.59 loads with 166.55 loads of pork cuts and 17.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.38, $95.97.