Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Feeder Cattle Trade Mixed Upon Seeing Corn Prices Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour as the live cattle contracts feel supported by stronger boxed beef prices and the week's higher trend in the cash market. The feeder cattle complex is mixed as corn prices trade higher, and last but not least, the lean hog market is continuing to push higher as it's thankful for the uptick in pork demand late this week. March corn is up 11 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 658.48 points.

Friday's export report shared that beef sales of 5,600 mt for 2025 were primarily to Mexico (2,400 mt), South Korea (1,300 mt) and Japan (900 mt). Pork net sales of 31,000 mt for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (20,600 mt), Japan (3,000 mt) and Colombia (2,400 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

It's been another prosperous day for the live cattle complex as the contracts are continuing to rally thanks to the tremendous demand in which the week has seen from both boxed beef prices and the fed cash cattle market. February live cattle are up $0.72 at $198.32, April live cattle are up $0.62 at $198.87 and June live cattle are up $0.45 at $193.20. A few new bids have been noted in the South at $200 -- but at this point no new trade has developed following Thursday's business. So far this week, Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $200 which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average and yet again another new all-time record high. And dressed cattle sales in the North have been mostly marked at $320, which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average and another new all-time market high.

Friday's WASDE report was mostly supportive for the cattle and beef markets in 2025. 2025 beef production jumped by 125 million pounds as steer and heifer slaughter speeds are faster than originally assumed. Although I personally don't agree with their assumption that heifer retention may partly be a factor here as well, that is what USDA officials noted. Steer prices for 2025 are higher than last month's report as steers in the first quarter of 2025 are now expected to average $194 (up $6.00), steers in the second quarter are expected to average $194 (up $5.00), steers in the third quarter are expected to average $196 (up $4.00) and estimates for steer prices in the fourth quarter now sit at $198. Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 60 million pounds -- with supplies notably coming from Oceania and South America. But beef exports for 2025 were unchanged at 2,595,000 pounds.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.34 ($333.12) and select up $5.22 (313.57) with a movement of 68 loads (31.03 loads of choice, 6.17 loads of select, 6.13 loads of trim and 24.23 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading mostly lower into Friday's noon hour as traders take note of the aggressive rally in corn prices. Traders quickly saw the lower-than-expected decline in the 2024-2025 ending corn stocks at 1.54 billion bushels, which is down 198 million bushels from last month's report, and it's somewhat taken the market by surprise. But thankfully, the strong buyer demand in the countryside is still helping the nearby feeder cattle contracts keep their momentum, although some of the deferred are reacting poorly. January feeders are up $2.95 at $272.17, March feeders are up $0.35 at $268.65 and April feeders are up $0.40 at $269.47.

LEAN HOGS:

The announcement that pork production in 2025 is forecasted to be stronger than December's estimates combined with the note of higher pork cutout values is all helping push the lean hog contracts higher into Friday's noon hour. February lean hogs are up $0.35 at $82.12, April lean hogs are up $1.15 at $88.47 and June lean hogs are up $1.17 at $101.62. Day by day, the further the market moves away from the technical bottom established earlier this week, the more likely it's becoming that a near-term bottom has been established for the market and higher trends could now become the norm if pork demand remains supportive.

The projected lean hog index for 1/9/2025 is down $0.16 at $80.43, and the actual index for 1/8/2025 is down $0.46 at $80.59. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.37 with a weighted average price of $77.98, ranging from $70.00 to $81.00 on 721 head with a five-day rolling average of $78.76. Pork cutouts total 180.32 loads with 159.70 loads of pork cuts and 20.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.54, $92.02.

Friday's WASDE Report shared mostly supportive news for the pork and hog markets of 2025. Pork production for 2025 was increased by 140 million pounds as processing speeds have increased. Hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $61 (up $1.00), hog prices in the second quarter are expected to average $66 (up $1.00), hog prices in the third quarter are expected to average $70 (up $2.00) and hog prices for the fourth quarter of 2025 are estimated to be $56.00. Pork imports for 2025 were unchanged (1,140 million pounds) and pork exports for 2025 were also unchanged (7,325 million pounds).

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - USDA To Release WASDE, Grain Stocks Reports Today

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Northern dressed cattle traded about $5.00 higher with Southern live cattle trading $4.00 higher. The strength over the past few weeks has been incredible. Beef prices continue to increase with choice boxed beef up $2.17 and select up $1.46. Consumers prefer beef and are willing to pay for it. The heavy cattle weights have not hindered the market, but are a blessing, allowing for more meat per carcass. This has also allowed feedlots to remain in the driver's seat as holding cattle for higher prices has not been detrimental. New contract highs were again seen in most live and feeder cattle contracts. Feeder cattle continue to see strong demand at auctions with some seeing double-digit gains over the previous week.

Hog futures had a strong day Thursday, mostly from spillover trading from cattle. Cash and cutouts did not provide much support. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.34. Pork cutout values slipped $0.05. It may be difficult for futures to see much upside if further underlying support does not unfold. The increase may have been from the interest in buying the break in anticipation of seasonal weakness nearing the end. Further short-covering could take place ahead of the weekend. USDA will release the WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks report today.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Strong cash cattle prices will continue to support futures with new highs increasing technical buying interest.	1)	The Commitments of Traders report is expected to show a record-long future position of managed money traders. This increases the caution of traders holding long positions.
2)	The reports that cattle imports from Mexico will partially resume during the week of Jan. 20 have not had an impact on the market. An official announcement has not yet been made.	2)	High prices cure high prices and cash cattle at record highs may be near price resistance.
3)	The strength of hogs may trigger further short-covering ahead of the weekend.	3)	Hogs will need further support from cash and cutouts or futures will fall back.
4)	The seasonal weakness of pork cutouts may have been overdone to the downside. Demand may increase as consumers turn to more pork in the diet due to high beef prices.	4)	There are sufficient hogs available for packers at higher weights, leaving them confident of supply and less aggressive with cash.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Fed Cash Cattle Prices Trade $4.00 to $5.00 Higher Yet Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a tremendous day for the livestock complex as all three markets were able to close higher and the cash cattle market traded $4.00 to $5.00 higher on top of last week's record-breaking prices. Southern live cattle traded for $200 (up $4.00) and Northern dressed cattle traded for $320 (up $5.00). March corn is up 2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $1.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 106.84 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Week after week the fed cash cattle market continues to astonish us all by its wild gains as feedlot managers are skillfully advancing the market for all that it has. Throughout the day Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $320 which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average and again presses the market to new record-breaking prices. And some light live cattle sales were noted in the South at $200 which is $400 higher than last week's weighted average, and also a new all-time high for live cattle prices as well. Thankfully the unwavering fundamental support from the market helped entice traders into advancing the contracts again following Wednesday's minor setback. February live cattle closed $3.90 higher at $197.60, April live cattle closed $2.75 higher at $198.27 and June live cattle closed $2.25 higher at $192.72. Asking prices left for cattle to sell this week remain firm at $200 to $202 in the South and $320 plus in the North. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.17 ($330.78) and select up $1.46 ($308.35) with a movement of 116 loads (74.05 loads of choice, 14.71 loads of select, 9.13 loads of trim and 18.23 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Given that sales have now been reported in both regions, it's likely that prices will remain steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

What day, what day it was for the feeder cattle complex as the market posted lofty gains -- confidently advancing anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 higher. I believe today's robust performance was mainly because traders were enthralled with the market's fundamental support upon seeing boxed beef prices trading higher amid another $5.00 advancement in the fed cash cattle sales in the North. Nevertheless, the feeder cattle complex shook the bearish attitude it possessed on Wednesday and closed fully higher Thursday afternoon. January feeders closed $3.65 higher at $269.22, March feeders closed $3.32 higher at $268.30 and April feeders closed $2.92 higher at $269.07. At Kist Livestock Auction in Mandan, North Dakota compared to their last sale three weeks ago feeder steers weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold $12.00 to $15.00 higher; steers weighing 600 to 700 pounds sold $21.00 higher, and steers weighing 700 to 750 pounds sold $9.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 500 to 550 pounds sold $17.00 higher, and heifers weighing 650 to 700 pounds traded $22.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 69%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/8/2024: up $2.14, $275.00.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex successfully closed higher as the market may have finally found some footing in the futures complex after being pressured to trade lower for over a week. February lean hogs closed $2.30 higher at $81.77, April lean hogs closed $2.27 higher at $87.35 and June lean hogs closed $1.72 higher at $100.45. The afternoon carcass price closed slightly lower, which was mainly because of the $2.79 decline in the picnic, but today's movement was noteworthy at 412 loads. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.34 with a weighted average price of $78.85 in 2,087 head. Pork cutouts totaled 412.38 loads with 378.39 loads of pork cuts and 33.99 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.05, $90.48. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/7/2024: down $0.54, $81.05.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's likely that packers have already bought the vast majority of their cash needs for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Contracts Turn Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex may have bobbled lower throughout Wednesday's trade, but the market is back to its rallying nature thus far through Thursday's trade. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but at any point in time now packer interest could begin to surface. March corn is up 1 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 106.84 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets are rallying side by side as traders have shaken the anxiousness that the market is possessed on Wednesday and are back to believing in the market's bullish trajectory. February live cattle are up $3.25 at $196.95, April live cattle are up $2.32 at $197.85 and June live cattle are up $1.85 at $192.32. It is helping that boxed beef prices are fully higher, and it's still assumed that cash cattle prices will be higher again too this week although no trade has surfaced at this point. Some bids have surfaced in Nebraska at $200 live and $315 dressed, but it's likely that feedlot managers are going to hold out for more money. Asking prices are noted in the South at $200 and in the North at $320.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.21 ($330.82) and select up $2.48 ($309.37) with a movement of 80 loads (51.49 loads of choice, 8.56 loads of select, 4.79 loads of trim and 14.97 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex may have waned lower through Wednesday's trade, but the market is rocking and rolling through Thursday's hours as the nearby contracts are trading anywhere from $3.00 to $4.00 higher. January feeders are up $4.00 at $269.57, March feeders are up $3.57 at $268.55 and April feeders are up $3.12 at $269.27. And given that the CME feeder cattle index closed at $272.86 -- I think it's safe to assume that buyer demand remains red hot in the countryside which could be partially why traders have again decided the best direction for the contracts is higher.

LEAN HOGS:

Traders are thankful to see midday pork cutout values higher which is partially helping them post a significant rally this morning. Dare I say what we all are thinking: Has the market found a bottom and aims to trade higher with the recent uptick in demand? Hog producers sure hope so, and hopefully, Friday's WASDE report will answer some of those questions. February lean hogs are up $2.50 at $81.97, April lean hogs are up $2.05 at $87.12 and June lean hogs are up $1.62 at $100.35.

The projected lean hog index for 1/8/2025 is down $0.46 at $80.59, and the actual index for 1/7/2025 is down $0.54 at $81.05.

Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $79.35, ranging from $76.00 to $81.00 on 1,285 head and a five-day rolling average of $79.51. Pork cutouts total 244.00 loads with 228.77 loads of pork cuts and 15.23 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.13, $90.66.