Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Contracts Close Lower While Hog Contracts Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex, as the cattle contracts closed mostly lower but the lean hog contracts closed higher. No trade developed in the cash cattle market, but it's assumed that prices will trade either steady or somewhat higher again this week. March corn is up 6 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $9.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 358.67 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts rounded out the day lower as traders are sheepish of overly supporting the market ahead of seeing what demand pans out to be this week and before seeing what the cash cattle market accomplishes. February live cattle closed $1.37 lower at $197.40, April live cattle closed $1.27 lower at $198.20 and June live cattle closed $1.57 lower at $192.52. No trade developed throughout the day in the cash cattle market, but it is assumed that feedlot managers will price cattle higher again this week. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, and Texas, but lower in Kansas. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head -- 8,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded anywhere from $315 to $330, but mostly at $320, which is $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. And Southern live cattle traded anywhere from $200 to $202, which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Both the live and dressed prices mark yet another new all-time high for both regions. And last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 77,044 head. Of which 75% (58,073 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 25% (18,971 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.51 ($333.35) and select up $3.43 ($317.57) with a movement of 118 loads (75.27 loads of choice, 18.03 loads of select, 9.46 loads of trim and 14.75 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. This week's trade will likely depend on how short bought packers are. If they need cattle, prices will likely trade higher. If they're somewhat comfortable with their inventory, prices could trade steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex rounded out the day lower as the lack of support from the live cattle market amid the $0.06 to $0.07 rally in the corn complex was enough pressure to keep the market trading lower through closing time. January feeders closed $0.50 lower at $271.85, March feeders closed $1.50 lower at $267.90 and April feeders closed $1.85 lower at $268.32. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to their last sale two weeks ago, and at their midsession point, feeder steers were trading $5.00 to $20.00 higher, and feeder heifers were selling $3.00 to $20.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 71%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/10/2025: down $1.25, $277.30.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though pork cutout values rounded out the day slightly lower, the lean hog complex has built up enough positive technical momentum to keep the market trading higher. Now if pork cutout values close lower again on Tuesday afternoon, then the market may begin to rethink its direction. February lean hogs closed $0.62 higher at $83.17, April lean hogs closed $0.62 higher at $89.30 and June lean hogs closed $0.10 lower at $102.47. The spot February contract will begin to run into some technical pressure around $84.00. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.14 with a weighted average price of $79.14 on 2,267 head. Pork cutouts totaled 321.46 loads with 282.16 loads of pork cuts and 39.30 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.16, $90.20. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head – 39,000 head more than a week ago and 116,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/9/2025: down $0.16, $80.43.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Prices were slightly higher Monday afternoon, but packers still need to buy more volume.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Tones Summarize the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed at Monday's noon hour as the cattle contracts are leery of trading higher until they see what develops fundamentally this week, but the lean hog contracts are trading higher upon the arrival of better pork demand. Higher corn prices are also deterring the feeder cattle complex from trading higher. March corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $6.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 156.47 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following last week's incredible rally, traders are leery of overly supporting the live cattle complex this week until tried-and-true market fundamentals show that they're going to be supportive again this week. February live cattle are down $042 at $198.35, April live cattle are down $0.40 at $199.07 and June live cattle are down $0.70 at $193.45. It's obviously too early in the week for any developments to have surfaced in the cash cattle market, but undoubtedly, feedlot managers are going to price their showlists higher again this week.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded anywhere from $315 to $330, but mostly at $320, which is $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. And Southern live cattle traded anywhere from $200 to $202, which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Both the live and dressed prices mark yet another new all-time high for both regions.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.52 ($332.32) and select up $2.96 ($317.10) with a movement of 62 loads (41.29 loads of choice, 7.53 loads of select, 5.81 loads of trim and 7.29 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Between the corn complex trading $0.04 to $0.05 higher Monday morning and upon seeing the fact that the live cattle complex is a little gun shy of trading higher -- it comes as no real surprise that the feeder cattle complex is also trading lower. January feeders are up $0.35 at $272.70, March feeders are down $0.37 at $269.02 and April feeders are down $0.62 at $269.55. But once again Monday's lower move in the futures complex isn't a representation of what's playing out in the countryside as feeder cattle continue to trade strong. Monday's move is traders' technical reaction to where prices are.

LEAN HOGS:

While the cattle complex is tiptoeing around, the lean hog contracts are trading higher as they're pleased with the uptick in demand as of late. February lean hogs are up $0.90 at $83.45, April lean hogs are up $1.27 at $89.95 and June lean hogs are up $0.75 at $103.32. This morning the biggest driving factors for the carcass's ability to be higher is because of the ham's $4.74 gain, and the rib's $4.73 gain. Meanwhile the cash hog market is silent with only 345 head having traded thus far.

The projected lean hog index for 1/10/2025 is up $0.34 at $80.77, and the actual index for 1/9/2025 is down $0.16 at $80.43. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.36 with a weighted average price of $77.62, ranging from $70.50 to $79.00 on 345 head and a five-day rolling average of $78.68. Pork cutouts total 153.65 loads with 129.25 loads of pork cuts and 24.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.47, $92.83.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Follow-Through Strength Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures opened higher Friday, then fell back, but buying interest pushed contracts to new highs. Cash cattle traded $4.00 to $5.00 higher last week with boxed beef continuing to trend higher. Beef demand is exceptionally strong at these prices with choice boxed beef up $2.06 and select up $5.79. USDA showed supportive estimates for cattle prices on the WASDE report with quarterly steer prices from $4.00 to $6.00 higher than their December estimates. Feedlots continue to maintain leverage over packers. This has resulted from packers holding back on purchases in December as they tried to back up cattle and force feedlots to sell cattle rather than add more weight. This backfired as feedlots have been rewarded for heavier cattle as the packers were short-bought. This has resulted in cash trading higher in an impressive way and it may not be over yet.

Hogs found support from high cash, cutouts, and estimates on the WASDE report Friday. The WASDE reports are estimates and can change monthly, but higher estimates make traders feel better about remaining long in the market. The rubber meets the road with cash and cutouts. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.15. Pork cutout values increased by $0.88. The WASDE report estimates showed quarterly hog prices from $1.00 to $2.00 higher, providing hope for better prices as the year progresses. Slaughter remains strong, indicating packers need hogs to supply the demand.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	New contract highs in cattle provide confidence to traders to remain long in the market and add to their positions.	1)	Cattle weights continue to increase and may be a detriment at some point if demand slows. Cash weakness could trigger more aggressive selling as feedlots will move the heavy cattle.
2)	Packers remain short-bought and need to step up to purchase cattle for slaughter. Consumer demand remains strong, keeping packers from reducing slaughter pace.	2)	Cattle futures at the $200 level may be the price that could trigger some significant profit-taking.
3)	Hog futures seem to have established a bottom, moving substantially higher over the past two days. The seasonal weakness may be behind us.	3)	A trend higher for both cash hogs and cutouts has not been solidified. The inability to continue gains could cap a price rally.
4)	The better outlook for hog prices as indicated in the WASDE report may further support the market.	4)	The increased slaughter pace has been easily filled as the supply of hogs remains sufficient for demand. Packers have not had to be aggressive in the cash market.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Higher Closes Remain the Contracts Theme

GENERAL COMMENTS:

All livestock participants are headed into the weekend thankful as demand helped drive the contracts higher yet again. March corn is up 14 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 696.75 points

Friday's export report shared that beef sales of 5,600 mt for 2025 were primarily to Mexico (2,400 mt), South Korea (1,300 mt) and Japan (900 mt). Pork net sales of 31,000 mt for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (20,600 mt), Japan (3,000 mt) and Colombia (2,400 mt).

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle up $4.72, April live cattle up $3.47; January feeder cattle up $7.53, March feeder cattle up $5.22; February lean hogs up $1.77, April lean hogs up $2.90; March corn up $0.20, May corn up $0.21.

LIVE CATTLE:

Witnessing true price discovery take place in the cattle complex like it is occurring now is something that many producers never even dreamed of as the belief that prices could become this high seemed too farfetched. But yet, here we are – in a point in time where dressed cattle are breaking records at $320, and live cattle sales are breaking records at $200, all while beef demand continues to be the unwavering, iron work horse behind the scenes. All to say, it was another impeccable week where the contracts were wildly supported by traders and the market's fundamentals fueled the market to trade higher and higher. February live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $198.77, April live cattle closed $1.20 higher at $199.47 and June live cattle closed $1.37 higher at $194.10. Throughout the week Northern dressed cattle traded at $320 which is $5.00 higher than last weeks' weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $200 to $201 which is $4.00 to $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. And just to again jog your memory -- these prices are higher than last week's weighted averages which were record breaking.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 105,000 head -- 16,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 10,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated to be around 589,000 head -- 83,000 head more than a week ago and 45,000 head more than year ago.

Friday's WASDE report was mostly supportive for the cattle and beef markets in 2025. 2025 beef production jumped by 125 million pounds as steer and heifer slaughter speeds are faster than originally assumed. Although I personally don't agree with their assumption that heifer retention may partly be a factor here as well, that is what USDA officials noted. Steer prices for 2025 are higher than last month's report as steers in the first quarter of 2025 are now expected to average $194 (up $6.00), steers in the second quarter are expected to average $194 (up $5.00), steers in the third quarter are expected to average $196 (up $4.00) and estimates for steer prices in the fourth quarter now sit at $198. Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 60 million pounds -- with supplies notably coming from Oceania and South America. But beef exports for 2025 were unchanged at 2,595,000 pounds.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.06 ($332.84) and select up $5.79 ($314.14) with a movement of 128 loads (77.50 loads of choice, 9.60 loads of select, 12.14 loads of trim and 29.24 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Until packers get a plethora of cattle bought or drastically cut throughput, feedlot managers will continue to push prices higher and higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was another dynamic day for the feeder cattle complex as the market successfully triumphed and closed fully higher even though the nearby corn contracts closed anywhere from $0.14 to $0.15 higher upon seeing today's WASDE report which shared a steep decline in the 2024-2025 ending corn stock. Nevertheless, the cattle complex's bullish nature again became traders' focus this afternoon ahead of today's close as demand in the countryside is utterly incredible and traders deemed it only appropriate to reflect that on the board as well. January feeders closed $3.12 higher at $272.35, March feeders closed $1.10 higher at $269.40 and April feeders closed $1.10 higher at $270.17. The Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week feeder steers and heifers traded $5.00 to $10.00 higher, steer calves sold $3.00 to $5.00 higher, and heifer calves sold $7.00 to $9.00 stronger. Slaughter cows sold $3.00 to $4.00 higher, and slaughter bulls traded $9.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 58%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/9/2025: up $3.55, $278.55.

LEAN HOGS:

Finally, as if a market couldn't love demand anymore, the lean hog complex has seen a little change in its overall morale thanks to the uptick in demand late this week. To kick the day off the morning's export report was supportive of the hog complex, and thankfully by the day's close traders were pleased to see the carcass price close higher as well. And with the steady and stable gains being seen in the cutouts, traders have elected to continue to move the contracts higher following Wednesday's low which leads one to believe that the market has established a low for the market's current move. February lean hogs closed $0.77 higher at $82.55, April lean hogs closed $1.32 higher at $88.67 and June lean hogs closed $2.12 higher at $102.57. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.15 with a weighted average price of $79.00 on 4,169 head. Pork cutouts totaled 250.14 loads with 228.38 loads of pork cuts and 21.76 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.88, $91.36. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 162,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 167,000 head. The CME lean hog index 1/8/2025: down $0.46, $80.59.

Friday's WASDE Report shared mostly supportive news for the pork and hog markets of 2025. Pork production for 2025 was increased by 140 million pounds as processing speeds have increased. Hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $61 (up $1.00), hog prices in the second quarter are expected to average $66 (up $1.00), hog prices in the third quarter are expected to average $70 (up $2.00) and hog prices for the fourth quarter of 2025 are estimated to be $56.00. Pork imports for 2025 were unchanged (1,140 million pounds) and pork exports for 2025 were also unchanged (7,325 million pounds).

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. It's likely that packers will pay more attention to the cash market on Tuesday or Wednesday, once they see how aggressive demand is early in the week.