Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Back Away From Resistance Pressure

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's a lower trending day for the entire livestock complex as all three of the markets are trading lower. Thursday's move seems to be more technically driven than it is fundamentally driven as pork cutout values are slightly higher and cash cattle prices are trading anywhere from steady to $2.00 higher. March corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $7.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 16.68 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 9,700 mt for 2025 were primarily for Japan (3,600 mt), China (3,500 mt) and South Korea. Pork net sales of 30,300 mt for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (11,700 mt), South Korea (5,000 mt) and South Korea (5,000 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Upon rallying up to the market's resistance at $198.50, traders have quickly pulled the live cattle contracts back lower, although they're seeing support from stronger cash cattle prices this week. They're not confident that the market's current fundamental support is justifiably strong enough to break the resistance threshold. It's also worth mentioning that last week we saw a big jump in the CFTC data for non-commercial positions, which could be adding to some of the market's pressure as some profit taking could be taking place by traders. February live cattle are down $2.42 at $196.10, April live cattle are down $2.12 at $197.20 and June live cattle are down $1.57 at $191.90. There's been some more cash cattle sales reported this morning where dressed cattle are trading for $322 ($2.00 higher than last week's weighted average) and more live cattle trade is being noted at $201 which is steady/$1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Asking prices for cattle left to trade are around $202 in the South and $323 plus in the North.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.95 ($333.19) and select up $1.05 ($319.09) with a movement of 58 loads (34.08 loads of choice, 13.73 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 10.49 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle complex ducking its head and running lower, the feeder cattle market didn't take long to change its position either. January feeders are down $2.00 at $273.22, March feeders are down $2.70 at $267.10 and April feeders are down $2.37 at $267.75. This is also a technical decision being made; it's not because of a lack of fundamental support in the countryside.

LEAN HOGS:

Even with an encouraging report of export sales this morning, the lean hog complex is following the cattle contracts lower trend as its market is also trading slightly lower. Thankfully, pork cutout values are still slightly higher, which continues to be an encouraging demand factor that traders won't likely overlook. But today's pork cuts are a little more scattered across the board as the butt is up $4.56 and the loin is up $3.83, but the ham is down $3.03 and the belly is down $2.18. February lean hogs are down $0.90 at $82.22, April lean hogs are down $0.50 at $90.52 and June lean hogs are down $0.25 at $103.90.

The projected lean hog index for 1/15/2025 is up $0.09 at $81.19, and the actual index for 1/14/2025 is up $0.11 at $81.10. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.72 with a weighted average price of $80.44, ranging from $71.00 to $81.00 on 1,630 head and a five-day rolling average of $79.61. Pork cutouts total 188.75 loads with 148.36 loads of pork cuts and 40.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.03, $90.86.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Higher Cash Cattle Trade Provides Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

You can't push a good market down. The resilience of cattle futures has been impressive. The strong demand for beef would not indicate otherwise. Boxed beef was mixed with choice up $1.16 and select down $0.67, but early cash trade was light but $1.00 higher in the South. Increased cash activity should unfold today with Northern dressed cattle likely showing the same increase or more. It certainly looks like both cash and futures will push above the $200 level. Cash was anticipated to move to that level about 2 years ago but never quite got there. Consumer demand has been surprising as it has not backed off as beef prices rise. Feeder cattle futures held close to live cattle both keeping pace and slowly increasing the price spread.

Hog futures spent time on both sides of unchanged managing to close higher in the April and later contracts. The February contract was lower as the market adjusted close to underlying cash. Indications point to stronger demand as time progresses. Pork cutouts were higher on Wednesday with a gain of $0.62. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.07. The packers likely have most of their purchasing done for the week resulting in lower cash today. The June through August contracts made new contract highs again with June and July closing above the $104 level. This indicates that traders remain friendly to the market. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 136,000.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Consistent new highs in the cattle markets keep the trend higher and traders are interested in buying.	1)	Managed money traders are extremely long in the cattle markets and anything indicating some weakness in the cattle markets could trigger heavy liquidation.
2)	Higher cash cattle again this week will push the market over $200 and a new record. Packers continue to pay more to procure cattle to meet strong beef demand.	2)	Sometimes when the market looks the most bullish is when it turns and cattle could be near that level. Weekly export sales are expected to be low again as international demand slows.
3)	Hog futures have been resilient even with fluctuating cash and cutouts. The seasonal lull in pork demand is expected to be over with better demand unfolding.	3)	Hog weights continue to run higher than a year ago with last week showing hogs averaging 0.9 pounds higher than a year ago.
4)	Weekly hog weights declined one pound last week averaging 292.2 pounds. Market-ready hogs remain current.	4)	The packers are expected to be less aggressive the rest of the week as they have purchased most of the hogs they need. Lower cash may limit upside potential.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Light Movement in the South Noted at $201 for Live Cattle

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a fruitful day for the livestock complex as all three markets saw their contracts close mostly higher, the cash cattle market saw a thin movement of cattle trade in the South for steady to $1.00 higher and packers were aggressive in this afternoon's cash hog market. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $201 to $205 but are still not established in the North. March corn is up 4 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $3.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 703.27 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another successful day for the live cattle complex as not only were the contracts able to again advance their position, but the cash cattle market was lightly tested and thankfully our assumption that prices would trade steady/somewhat higher was true! February live cattle closed $1.12 higher at $198.52, April live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $199.32 and June live cattle closed $1.25 higher at $193.45. There were only a handful of cattle sold in the South throughout the day, but cattle sold at mostly $201 which is steady compared to the weighted average last week in Kansas, but $1.00 higher compared to Texas' weighted average last week. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $201 to $205 but are still not yet established for the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.16 ($334.14) and select down $0.67 ($318.04) with a movement of 132 loads (94.99 loads of choice, 22.48 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 14.70 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. If the South was able to push prices $1.00 higher on a Wednesday, the feedlot managers in the North will likely be able to accomplish even more later in the week as packers could become anxious as even though they were able to buy more cattle last week, they still need to be active in this week's market to avoid becoming even shorter bought.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex rallied throughout Wednesday's trade as the market was pleased to see additional support stemming from the live cattle contracts, higher trade and amid steady to $1.00 higher sales from the few fed cattle that were traded. January feeders closed $1.12 higher at $275.22, March feeders closed $1.60 higher at $269.80 and April feeders closed $1.57 higher at $270.12. The spot March contract came up against resistance pressure at $270 but ultimately elected to close below that threshold as traders weren't confident that the market possessed enough support to overtake that threshold. At the Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week feeder steers sold $2.00 to $6.00 higher with instances of sharply higher prices across all weight groups. Feeder heifers traded $6.00 to $8.00 higher with sharply higher prices across all weight groups as well. The CME feeder cattle index 1/14/2025: down $0.27, $278.04.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a productive day for the lean hog complex as not only were the contracts able to close higher, but the futures complex was also well supported by a large movement in the cash hog sector and by stronger pork cutout values yet again. February lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $83.12, April lean hogs closed $0.52 higher at $91.02 and June lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $104.15. The carcass price was well supported as most of the major cuts posted day-over-day gains, with the loin and butt being the only two cuts that closed slightly lower. But what was potentially more eye-catching than the higher close in pork cutout values was the cash hog market's movement of 10,701 head -- which is rarely seen any more in the cash hog market. February lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $83.12, April lean hogs closed $0.52 higher at $91.02 and June lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $104.15. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.07 with a weighted average price of $80.21 on 10,701 head. Pork cutouts totaled 325.47 loads with 264.89 loads of pork cuts and 60.58 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.62, $90.83. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head – 6,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/13/2025: up $0.23, $80.99.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given how aggressive packers were on Wednesday, it's likely that they're almost done buying now for the week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Continue to Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are again trading higher into today's noon hour as the market remains confident in the strong fundamental support. Some light trade has been noted in Kansas at $201 which is mostly steady with last week's weighted average. March corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 641.84 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's another strong day for the live cattle complex as traders continue to advance the complex with the belief that market fundamentals will remain strong through the week's end. There's been a little movement in Kansas where a handful of live cattle traded for $201 which is mostly steady with last week's weighted average -- but given that only a small sampling has been sold at that price, I don't believe a trend has been established yet for the week. Asking prices have surfaced at $202 to $205 for the South but are still not established for the North. February live cattle are up $0.55 at $197.95, April live cattle are up $0.82 at $198.97 and June live cattle are up $0.80 at $193.00.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.43 ($334.41) and select down $1.45 ($317.26) with a movement of 76 loads (49.21 loads of choice, 17.13 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 9.76 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the nearby corn contracts are trading slightly higher, the feeder cattle market continues to rally as traders feel well supported by the live cattle contracts trading higher and upon the continued support of incredible feeder cattle sales in the countryside. January feeders are up $0.25 at $274.35, March feeders are up $1.05 at $269.25 and April feeders are up $1.02 at $269.57. The spot March contract is fearful of the resistance at $270, and unless something wild happens in the fed cash cattle market, it's unlikely that traders will tackle that threshold today.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is continuing to grind higher as the market is thoroughly pleased with the uptick of demand that it's recently seen. February lean hogs are down $0.45 at $83.17, April lean hogs are up $0.62 at $91.12 and June lean hogs are up $0.42 at $103.97. The rib is again the biggest leading cut this morning with its $3.11 gain, but the ham is also up $2.29 helping push the carcass price higher.

The projected lean hog index for 1/14/2025 is up $0.11 at $81.10, and the actual lean hog index for 1/13/2025 is up $0.23 at $80.99. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of packer submission issues. Pork cutouts total 195.97 loads with 159.27 loads of pork cuts and 36.69 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.91, $91.12.