Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Northern Cattle Trade $6.00 to $8.00 Higher, Live Cattle Trade $6.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a wild day for the cattle complex as fed cash cattle prices jumped $6.00 to $8.00 higher and the board echoed the cash market's excitement. March corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $10.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 140.82 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock contracts scored the following changes: February live cattle up $8.03, April live cattle up $5.53; January feeder cattle up $5.20, March feeder cattle up $8.52; February lean hogs up $1.18, April lean hogs down $0.13; March corn up $0.02, May corn up $0.04.

Friday's Cold Storage report shared that freezers were up 3% from the previous month but down 5% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 4% from the previous month but down 5% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 2% from the previous month but down 6% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 52% from last month but down 39% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

These prices are what history stories are made out of. We knew the market was likely to see some excitement this week as cash prices were assumed to trade steady in the worst-case scenario. To see the trader buy-in and support to this degree all while feedlot managers continue to push the cash cattle market higher week after week is what true price discovery feels like.

As soon as traders caught wind that fed cash cattle prices were trading $6.00 to $8.00 higher, the contracts jumped higher and maintained those gains through the day's end. February live cattle closed $3.67 higher at $204.77, April live cattle closed $2.30 higher at $203.02 and June live cattle closed $1.67 higher at $197.37 – which again are all new record-breaking contract highs for each of those months. A light movement of trade was noted in the North at $328 to $330 which is $6.00 to $8.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle were sold for mostly $210 which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average -- and both prices are yet again new all-time record-breaking achievements.

Packers are continuing to support the cash cattle market as they simply don't have enough supply built up around them. But moving forward, it remains critical to continue to monitor how they're committing the cattle because as soon as they have enough supply around them -- prices will weaken.

And last but certainly not least, Friday's Cattle on Feed report was another bullish feather that the market will tuck into its hat as on feed totals and placements were lighter, but marketings were higher than a year ago.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 111,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 2,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. The week's total slaughter is estimated to be around 599,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.04 ($327.92) and select down $0.92 ($316.29) with a movement of 129 loads (93.87 loads of choice, 14.41 loads of select, 7.53 loads of trim and 12.84 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Until we see how many cattle packers were able to buy, it's a risky coin toss to call.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The market was well supported by traders and fundamental indicators alike. With the exciting developments in this week's fed cash cattle trade and the live cattle contracts rallying as they did, it was an easy option for traders to continue to push the feeder cattle contracts through Friday's close. March feeders closed $2.50 higher at $276.57, April feeders closed $3.00 higher at $275.45 and May feeders closed $2.92 higher at $273.40. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers and heifers traded steady to $4.00 higher. Steer calves traded steady to $3.00 higher and heifer calves sold steady to $3.00 higher except the 500- to 600-pound heifers traded $5.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold $3.00 to $7.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 59%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/23/2025: up $0.73, $278.28.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex traded back and forth throughout the day but was able to luckily close higher ahead of Friday's end. February lean hogs closed $0.17 higher at $82.30, April lean hogs closed $1.00 higher at $88.20 and June lean hogs closed $0.80 higher at $101.47. However, with the robust developments transpiring in the cattle complex, the lean hog market successfully closed higher, but the market wasn't as lively. Hog prices closed $1.87 lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with a weighted average of $80.38 on 1,240 head. Pork cutouts totaled 307.14 loads with 263.23 loads of pork cuts and 43.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.08, $91.69. Friday's slaughter is projected to be around 485,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 186,000 head. The CME lean hog index 1/22/2025: up $0.21, $81.93.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers rarely support the cash market on Mondays and that's likely to be the case again next week.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cash Cattle Prices Jump Another $6 to $8 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a dynamic and fruitful Friday morning for the cattle complex as both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are rallying thanks to the aggressive surge in fed cash cattle prices. Southern live cattle are currently trading $6.00 higher and dressed cattle prices are trading as much as $6.00 to $8.00 higher. March corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $10.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 64.65 points

LIVE CATTLE:

If your coffee wasn't quite strong enough Friday morning, that's OK because the jolting rally that's taking place in the cattle complex is enough to wake anyone from a groggy state. Upon seeing dressed cattle begin to trade in the North for $6.00 to $8.00 higher, the nearby live cattle futures quickly ran anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 higher and have maintained that momentum through morning trade. February live cattle are up $3.02 at $204.12, April live cattle are up $2.00 at $202.72, and June live cattle are up $1.45 at $197.15. Early this week, the market was hesitant to move too boldly; but by Wednesday, traders saw the writing on the wall that fed cattle prices were going to be at least steady, if not a little higher, and the bullish excitement once again ran rampant through the contracts. So far Friday morning, there's been some light trade in the North at $328 to $330, which is $6.00 to $8.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and live sales have been marked at $210, which is $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average. I think it's worthwhile to note that Thursday at Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, slaughter cows were trading $6.00 to $8.00 higher and slaughter bulls were selling $15.00 to $18.00 higher as packers continue to fight being short bought but are looking for alternative ways to build up some more inventory. Again, this week it will be crucial to see how many cattle packers get bought because until they're flush with supplies, it's going to be hard for packers to slow this cash cattle rally down. But, above all else, it would be remiss of me not to credit Friday's wild success to feedlot managers who are keenly aware of the market dynamics at play and continue to hold out for more money -- which is paying dividends. Well done folks! This is history unfolding before our eyes!

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.19 ($328.77) and select down $1.08 ($316.13) with a movement of 77 loads (57.01 loads of choice, 5.10 loads of select, 4.21 loads of trim and 10.88 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With fed cash cattle prices rallying $6.00 to $8.00 higher and corn prices dipping lower, it's been smooth sailing for the feeder cattle contracts Friday morning as support has been more than ample. March feeders are up $1.00 at $275.07, April feeders are up $1.47 at $273.92, and May feeders are up $1.62 at $272.10. And with the robust fundamental support that's poured into the complex Friday morning -- it's likely the moves in the fed cash cattle market outweigh whatever is noted in this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is mostly trading sideways into Friday's noon hour as the market has shifted to the backburner of the livestock complex as the cattle contracts are rallying robustly. February lean hogs are up $0.12 at $82.25, April lean hogs are down $0.05 at $87.15, and June lean hogs are down $0.12 at $100.55. Once again this morning, pork cutout values are showing modest support as the carcass is up by $0.25 -- and although that may not be by much, consistent stable support is.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 1/23/2025 is up $0.01 at $81.92, and the actual index for 1/22/2025 is up $0.21 at $81.93. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $78.12, ranging from $78.00 to $79.00 on 414 head and a five-day rolling average of $80.28. Pork cutouts total 180.27 loads with 151.18 loads of pork cuts and 29.09 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.25, $92.02.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle on Feed Report After the Close Today

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feedlots continue to hold out for higher cash and seem prepared to hold cattle until next week if they do not get what they want. Earlier this week, cash trade took place at steady money with last week. This indicated it would set the tone for the week. However, that does not seem to be the case. The feedlots have drawn a line in the sand, and they intend to make the packers cross that line and pay higher prices. In the meantime, futures continue to make new contract highs. Trades may pull back a bit Friday as they position themselves ahead of the Cattle on Feed report this afternoon. The average estimate for on-feed as of Jan. 1 is 99.8% of a year ago. Placements in December at 101.8% and marketed in December at 101.3%. Placements are expected to be the wild card with the range of estimates from 98.8% to 107.1%. Lower boxed beef prices may provide some pressure along with some profit-taking. Choice cuts declined $1.06 with select down $0.78.

Hog futures just could not get anything going with a mixed close. It was surprising to see cash higher again Thursday with the National Daily Direct Afternoon report up $0.99. The packers should be done for the week with lower cash expected Friday. Cutouts posted a nice gain of $1.60. The combination of higher cash and cutouts may provide support. Slaughter has been running below a year ago for the past two days, likely due to some plants having mechanical issues. This may be made up on Saturday with a higher slaughter number.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The trend remains up as traders continue to push cattle futures to new highs. Tight cattle supplies and good demand support the market.	1)	Cattle prices will not go up forever and will find a level at which liquidation will be triggered in the futures market.
2)	Feedlots are determined to get higher prices for cattle this week and are prepared to hold them over the next week if they do not receive it.	2)	Boxed beef has been choppy and mixed this week, indicating a threshold may have been reached.
3)	Cash hogs have increased each day this week with the packers aggressively looking for hogs. The numbers of market-ready hogs may be tightening.	3)	Packers may have finished buying hogs for the week, which may keep futures from moving higher ahead of the weekend.
4)	If hog futures build support at this level, traders might be more aggressive buyers for the long term.	4)	Hog futures may have limited upside as cutouts have remained choppy this week. Consistent support remains elusive.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Markets Continue to Inch Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts continued to rally through Thursday's end, but the lean hog contracts weren't as lucky. Still no sizeable sales have developed in the cash cattle market so Friday's market will be busy as not only will market participants need to be looking for sales to develop but they'll also be watching to see what the Cattle on Feed report does. March corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 408.34 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex again stepped up its game as the market continued to add position onto the already jaw-dropping gains that were made throughout Wednesday's market. Today's move seems to be driven by a number of different factors: traders' belief in the market's strong trajectory, trader's eagerness to continue to advance the complex amid the Dow Jones' rally which signs economic strength and stability and the belief that cash cattle prices will likely trade steady/somewhat higher again this week. February live cattle closed $1.05 higher at $201.10, April live cattle closed $0.95 higher at $200.72 and June live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $195.70. The market's resilient nature mixed with the gains made today have again pushed many of the nearby contracts to new contract high price points. But the unsettling factor about today's trade is the decline in boxed beef prices -- which needs to continue to be monitored as a loss of demand could circumvent the market's aspirations if it were to become a trend. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day as feedlot managers are happy to wait until the week's bitter end for packer interest to improve. Earlier this week there were some live sales marked at $201 to $202 which is $1.00 to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, but not enough cattle were traded to say that an accurate trend has been established for the week. Asking prices are noted in the South at $203 plus and at $330 in the North. Do note that Friday afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.06 ($330.96) and select down $0.78 ($317.21) with a movement of 163 loads (87.97 loads of choice, 41.07 loads of select, 22.09 loads of trim and 11.73 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Given that feedlot managers are simply in a position to roll over their showlists if prices aren't what they yearn for, it's likely that worst-case scenario prices will be steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the technical support of the live cattle complex's higher trend, mixed with the unwavering demand from buyers in the countryside – it was an easy decision for traders to push the feeder cattle contracts higher through Thursday's close. March feeders closed $1.00 higher at $274.07, April feeders closed $1.15 higher at $272.45 and May feeders closed $1.00 higher at $270.47. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to last week feeder steers weighing 500 to 800 pounds sold steady to $10.00 higher on a light test. There weren't enough heifers at auction to depict an accurate test. Slaughter cows sold $6.00 to $8.00 higher and slaughter bulls sold $15.00 to $18.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 77%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/22/2025: down $0.63, $277.55.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was slightly disappointing to watch as the market lost some of its momentum by the day's end. Some of the nearby contracts were able to keep a mildly higher position through closing time, but by and large, unsettled tones dominated the nearby contracts, and weaker tones dominated the deferred contracts. February lean hogs closed $0.65 higher a $82.15, April lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $87.20 and June lean hogs closed steady at $100.67. But it was encouraging to see continued pork demand show up in the marketplace as the carcass price closed $1.60 higher -- as the only cut to post a day-over-day decline was the picnic which closed just $0.45 lower. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.99 with a weighted average price of $82.25 on 3,430 head. Pork cutouts totaled 293.47 loads with 268.15 loads of pork cuts and 25.32 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.60, $91.77. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 472,000 head -- 10,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/21/2025: up $0.26, $81.72.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's most likely that the bulk of this week's cash hog trade is done with.