Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Beef Packers Post Higher Bids

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The anticipation is for beef demand to improve seasonally. The question is whether this is the time or if an increase in demand will be delayed, due in part to the impact from the outside markets affecting consumer spending. Packers are trying to improve their margins, but that has been a difficult task. Slaughter continues to run below a year ago, but that alone has not been sufficient to improve boxed beef prices. Choice boxed beef increased significantly on Monday, gaining $5.35, but that is not much compared to the recent losses. The strength will need to continue. Select boxed beef declined $1.78, eliminating some of the gains on Friday. The initial indication is that cash will be higher this week as packers are already bidding higher than last week. No trade has developed as feedlots will seize the opportunity to obtain higher prices for their cattle. The failure of cattle futures to hold gains indicates traders are cautious and deciding to take profits after last week's gains.

Nearby hog futures contracts tried to hold in positive territory, but succumbed to spread trading with traders uncertain whether positive demand fundamentals will hold. The sharp decline of futures last week has been unable to develop significant buying interest, giving the impression that the large decline was not only fund liquidation and a market correction, but also fundamentally driven. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.96 on moderate volume. Packers are expected to be more aggressive Tuesday. Pork cutout values increased $0.90.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Some packers are already posting bids higher than cash traded last week, indicating they may be short bought.	1)	The inability of cattle futures to extend their gains on Monday may mean the decline in June and July may not have been only a market correction, but demand driven.
2)	Cattle in some areas continue to be impacted by hot weather, with further death losses and weight losses being reported.	2)	It is uncertain how much impact the hot weather has had on the overall cattle herd. It may not have a significant impact on the big picture.
3)	Hog futures are building some support after the recent weakness. Traders are waiting for confirmation of continued strong demand.	3)	Hog futures have not been able to rebound from the recent large decline. Traders are not ready to buy back into the market.
4)	Hog slaughter continues to run ahead of a year ago, indicating consumer demand remains good.	4)	Packers continue to find sufficient market-ready hogs available. This limits their need to bid up to purchase what they need.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Livestock Traders Yearn for More Fundamental Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended the day mostly lower as traders want to see greater fundamental support before they push the contracts too much higher. New showlists are mixed this week as showlists are lighter in Texas and Kansas, but larger in Nebraska and Colorado. December corn is up 8 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 693.38 points and the NASDAQ is up 540.05 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Although traders were supportive early in the day of the live cattle contracts, the market grew softer as the day went on, as traders would like to see fundamental support increase. August live cattle closed $0.65 lower at $231.10, October live cattle closed $0.52 lower at $226.72 and December live cattle closed $0.72 lower at $226.22. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, but it was interesting to see packers offering bids of $233 in Kansas on a Monday, as that obviously indicates that they're short bought going into this week's trade. Asking prices are not yet established, but it's assumed that prices will be steady if not higher again this week. New showlists are mixed this week as showlists are lighter in Texas and Kansas, but larger in Nebraska and Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 90,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded from $231 to $233, which is $1.00 to $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded from $365 to $368, which is steady to $3.00 higher.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $5.35 ($366.73) and select down $1.78 ($344.45) with a movement of 85 loads (38.55 loads of choice, 24.19 loads of select, 7.62 loads of trim and 14.79 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With packers already offering bids, it's likely that they're short bought and prices will be higher this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also ended the day lower as the market continues to closely mirror the direction of the live cattle complex. But today's technical action wasn't a reflection of what happened in the countryside as buyers were aggressive today in sale barns. August feeders closed $0.20 lower at $347.82, September feeders closed $1.22 lower at $342.55 and October feeders closed $1.65 lower at $333.70. At the Joling Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers traded $10.00 to $26.00 higher, with the biggest advancement seen on the five weights. Feeder heifers sold steady to $20.00 higher, with the most gain seen on those weighing over 600 pounds. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 67%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/31/2026: up $1.06, $346.89.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ended the day mixed, with its nearby contracts still hesitant to trade higher, but the deferred contracts ended the day with a successful mild rally. August lean hogs closed $1.32 lower at $97.52, October lean hogs closed $1.17 lower at $83.67 and December lean hogs closed $0.32 lower at $75.35. Thankfully, consumer demand was slightly stronger today, which could help give traders confidence later in the week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.96 with a weighted average price of $99.45 on 4,366 head.

Pork cutouts total 268.94 loads with 250.35 loads of pork cuts and 18.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.90, $100.91. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 430,000 head -- 10,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/30/2026: down $0.21, $98.23.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With consumer demand a tick better at Monday's end, packers could likely show the cash market a little more interest on Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Continue to Show Up and Support the Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly higher into Monday's noon hour, aside from a couple of the nearby contracts in both the feeder cattle and lean hog markets. New showlists are mixed this week as showlists are lighter in Texas and Kansas, but larger in Nebraska and Colorado. December corn is up 5 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 525.30 points and NASDAQ is up 518.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Traders continue to be supportive of the live cattle complex heading into the new week as the contracts are all trading higher. August live cattle are up $0.55 at $232.30, October live cattle are up $0.50 at $227.75 and December live cattle are up $0.47 at $227.42. Packers must be short bought heading into this new week as bids have already surfaced in Kansas at $233. Asking prices are not yet established, but it's assumed that prices will be steady if not higher again this week. New showlists are mixed this week as showlists are lighter in Texas and Kansas, but larger in Nebraska and Colorado.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded from $231 to $233, which is $1 to $3 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at from $365 to $368, which is steady to $3 higher.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $5.36 ($366.74) and select down $2.25 ($343.98) with a movement of 54 loads (19.24 loads of choice, 17.38 loads of select, 5.52 loads of trim and 11.56 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And with the continued support of the live cattle market's higher trend, the feeder cattle contracts are mostly trading higher into Monday's noon hour as well. A couple of the nearby contracts are trading lower, which is likely stemming from the fact that demand in the countryside has been mixed even though the board has been committed to trading higher recently. August feeders are down $0.52 at $347.50, September feeders are down $0.17 at $343.60 and October feeders are up $0.20 at $335.55.

LEAN HOGS:

Even with midday pork cutout values higher, the lean hog contracts are trading mixed into Monday's noon hour with the nearby contracts remaining skeptical while the deferred contracts inch higher. More than anything, traders likely want to see consistent support from consumers before they'll push the contracts any higher for the time being. August lean hogs are down $1.17 at $97.67, October lean hogs are down $1.35 at $83.50 and December lean hogs are down $0.67 at $75.00. The projected lean hog index for 7/31/2026 is down $0.55 at $97.68 and the actual index for 7/30/2026 is down $0.21 at $98.23. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 551 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $101.14. Pork cutouts total 161.02 loads with 149.52 loads of pork cuts and 11.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.44, $102.45.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Uncertainty May Dominate Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures rebounded nicely during the week as the market corrected from its oversold technical condition. Cattle futures seem to have factored in most of the negative news. This gave feedlots confidence to hold for higher cash despite boxed beef struggling for much of the week. Packers needed to purchase cattle and stepped up to the plate. Southern live cattle traded $1.00 to $3.00 higher, with Northern dressed cattle trading as much as $3.00 higher. Northern dressed sales were rather light, which may leave packers short-bought coming into the week. Boxed beef prices were higher, with choice up $0.88 and select up $4.90. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders reducing their long futures position in live cattle by 8,656 contracts to a net long of 67,025. They reduced their long futures position in feeder cattle by 358 contracts to a net long of 8,987.

The liquidation phase ran its course on Friday, allowing hog futures to rebound despite further weakness of pork cutouts. Futures had been overdone to the downside. Cutouts declined $1.63 on Friday, holding just above $100. The weakness stemmed from hams down $7.23 and picnics down $3.46. Packers were less aggressive on Friday with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report down $0.64. They may be aggressive again to begin the week and may bid higher to procure the hogs they need early. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders as net buyers of 8,673 futures contracts, reducing their short position to 19,118.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The recent death losses from the hot weather are uncertain, but substantial. This may not have a large impact overall, but may provide support to the market.	1)	Boxed beef prices may continue to struggle for a time before seasonal strength may surface.
2)	The resumption of the importation of Mexican cattle through the Douglas port represents only 8% of the cattle imports usually received into the U.S. from Mexico and will not be negative to the market.	2)	Packers may have been able to purchase sufficient cattle late on Friday and early Saturday to provide sufficient supplies for slaughter.
3)	The liquidation of hog futures seems to have run its course, allowing the market to rebound. The expectation for higher cash should provide support.	3)	The weakness of cash hogs and pork cutouts on Friday may keep traders cautious over further strength.
4)	The October hog contract holds a significant discount to the soon-to-expire August contract. This gap is likely to be reduced.	4)	The fund traders remain net short in the hog market, which may limit upside potential without further fundamental support.