Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Follow-through Strength Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders reacted to the lower placements on the Cattle on Feed report. Some had thought that higher on-feed numbers and lower marketings would offset lower placements. However, traders generally react based on which side of the estimates the actual numbers fall. The reaction was violent, as futures gapped higher and short covering was triggered. There will likely be follow-through strength today, with prices potentially retesting the recent highs, but caution will be exercised as chart gaps generally are filled. Boxed beef was higher on Monday, with choice up $4.41 and select up $2.51. If the strength of boxed beef continues, a case could be made for higher cash trade this week.

Hog futures seemed to be beneficiaries of the strength in cattle. There was little reason for futures to increase on Monday other than the market being oversold. A higher open and stronger morning pork cutout values added to the support. Pork cutout values finished the day up $1.93. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report did not share the same sentiment as the rest of the complex, with the weighted average price falling $1.41 to $80.35. The upside price potential may be limited unless further support in both cash and cutouts unfolds. The packers are expected to bid higher for hog today, but they are not expected to be aggressive.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Follow-through buying should continue as further margin liquidation may take place. Traders held too many short positions into the report.	1)	There is no indication that packers will aggressively purchase cattle at higher prices just because futures may increase for a few days.
2)	Technical traders may try to push the cattle futures to the previous highs before the current strength runs its course.	2)	The gap left in cattle futures on the opening on Monday may be filled at some point.
3)	Hog futures may have been the recipient of spillover trade with the market now correcting from being oversold.	3)	Cash hogs did not follow the futures higher. The strength may be short-lived if the packers do not need to aggressively purchase hogs.
4)	Hog slaughter remains at a strong pace and higher than a year ago. This indicates demand is good.	4)	The fundamentals lack consistent support, which may limit the upside price potential.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Continue to Support the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

All in all, it was a strong start to the week for the livestock complex as all three of the markets closed higher Monday afternoon. No cash cattle trade has developed yet and both bids and asking prices remain elusive at this point in time. December corn is up 15 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $9.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 392.14 points and the NASDAQ is up 608.54 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a rallying type of day for the live cattle complex as the market successfully ended the day mostly $5.00 higher. But between noting the fact that feedlot managers were able to hold last week's fed cash cattle trade steady, and the record low number of placements for August on Friday's Cattle on Feed report, traders charged into the new week ready to push the contracts sharply higher. October live cattle closed $5.02 higher at $220.95, December live cattle closed $5.37 higher at $222.00 and February live cattle closed $5.75 higher at $223.10. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, and both bids and asking prices remain elusive at this point. Showlists for this week are lighter in Kansas and Nebraska, but larger in Texas. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 105,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $350, which is steady with the previous week's weighted average and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $222, which is also steady with the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $4.41 ($376.35) and select up $2.51 ($355.77), with a movement of 58 loads (40.11 loads of choice, 7.20 loads of select, 3.01 loads of trim and 7.18 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that most of the cattle traded in the North last week were committed for delivery for either this week or next, it leads one to believe that packers are shorter bought than originally thought and that prices may be able to hold steady if not trade a tick higher again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

As traders noted in last Friday's Cattle on Feed report, and the sheer fact that August placements were the lowest on record, the feeder cattle complex soared higher throughout all of Monday's trade. September feeders closed $3.90 higher at $337.47, October feeders closed $6.75 higher at $330.25 and November feeders closed $8.10 higher at $326.10. At the Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers under 600 pounds sold $10.00 to $25.00 higher, but the heavier weights traded mostly steady. Feeder heifers under 550 pounds traded $5.00 to $25.00 higher, with the heavier weights trading $10.00 lower to $8.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 74%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/18/2026: down $3.05, $339.45.

LEAN HOGS:

And with the help of stronger pork cutout values and trader support, the lean hog contracts were also able to end the day higher, thanks to a combination of support from both the market's fundamental and technical facets. October lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $78.15, December lean hogs closed $1.25 higher at $69.80 and February lean hogs closed $1.20 higher at $71.35. Pork cutouts totaled 275.15 loads, with 253.72 loads of pork cuts and 21.43 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.93, $88.91. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.41 with a weighted average price of $80.35 on 3,091 head. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 493,000 head -- 11,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/17/2026: down $1.00, $84.02.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With pork cutout values higher, there's a chance that the cash market could see more interest on Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Sharply Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With ample support pouring into the livestock complex, all three of the livestock contracts are trading higher into midday Monday. Showlists for this week are lighter in Kansas and Nebraska, but larger in Texas. December corn is up 14 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $8.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 323.82 points and the NASDAQ is up 533.08 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Thanks to the note of lighter placements on Friday's Cattle on Feed report, and to the fact that Southern live cattle were able to trade steady, the live cattle complex is trading robustly higher into midday Monday. October live cattle are up $4.02 at $219.95, December live cattle are up $4.72 at $221.30 and February live cattle are up $5.17 at $222.52.

Last week, Northern dressed cattle traded mostly at $ 350, which is steady with the previous week's weighted average, but Southern live cattle waited until the week's bitter end to trade on Saturday, and we will have to wait until the midmorning USDA reports come out to know what the exact weighted average was, but most trade was marked at $226 in the South, which is steady with the previous week's weighted average as well. No bids or asking prices have surfaced yet this week. Showlists for this week are lighter in Kansas and Nebraska, but larger in Texas.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $5.50 ($377.44) and select up $3.59 ($356.85) with a movement of 27 loads (19.46 loads of choice, 2.87 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.93 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Traders have taken note of the lower placements on Friday's Cattle on Feed report and have run the feeder cattle contracts sharply higher thus far through Monday's market. September feeders are up $3.42 at $337.00, October feeders are up $6.07 at $329.57 and November feeders are up $7.12 at $325.12. And so long as the live cattle contracts continue to trade higher, it's likely that the feeder cattle contracts will too, as there's ample support available in the market right now.

LEAN HOGS :

Even the lean hog contracts are trading higher into midday Monday as ample support is available throughout the complex right now. October lean hogs are up $0.47 at $78.57, December lean hogs are up $1.42 at $69.97 and February lean hogs are up $1.32 at $71.47. But with the combination of traders' support mixed with the $2.33 advance in morning pork cutout values, the lean hog complex is also being well supported into midday Monday.

The projected lean hog index for 9/18/2026 is down $0.60 at $83.42 and the actual index for 9/17/2026 is down $1.00 at $84.02. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.30 with a weighted average price of $80.47, ranging from $73.00 to $81.50 on 2,931 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.37. Pork cutouts total 169.94 loads, with 153.83 loads of pork cuts and 16.11 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.33, $89.31.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Should Rebound

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures lost ground during the second half of the week as boxed beef prices struggled and traders positioned ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. The report was released and is considered neutral to bullish. Cattle on feed were at 101% of a year ago. Bear in mind that many of these cattle are at heavier weights than a year ago. Placements were bullish, as they were 91% of a year ago and well under the trade estimate of 96.7%. Marketings were 97% of a year ago and slightly above the estimate of 96.1%. There is some indication that the report is mostly neutral, as the trend of higher weights and lower marketing will offset the lower placement number. Some of that will be true, but on feed and marketed numbers were very near the trade estimates. However, placements were substantially below the trade estimates, which is likely to result in higher trade. Cash cattle trade last week was generally steady and should be considered a victory. Boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice down $0.21 and select up $1.38. The Commitment of Traders report showed the funds as net sellers of 1,209 live cattle futures contracts, reducing their long position to 47,696. Feeder cattle showed they were net sellers of 237 contracts, reducing their long positions to 7,211.

Hog futures closed out a dismal week with an oversold market and new contract lows. The market is unable to find support as cash and cutouts continue to show weakness and the slaughter pace remains strong. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.84, with the weighted average down to $81.76. Pork cutout values declined $0.56. It will take a monumental effort for the market to close the chart gaps and regain the losses of the past 1 1/2 weeks. With sufficient hogs readily available to the market, there is little reason for the packers to bid up to purchase them. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders as net sellers of 8,134 contracts, increasing their net short position to 37,768.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	August placements were significantly under the trade estimates. This will keep supplies tight for some time.	1)	There are more cattle on feed than a year ago, and many of those cattle are at heavier weights.
2)	Steady cash trade should be considered a victory and should provide support due to the futures discount to the market.	2)	Slower marketings will back up cattle in the feedlots, resulting in heavier cattle and more beef tonnage.
3)	Hog futures are oversold, and a market that falls fast tends to bounce back faster.	3)	Hog futures continue to market new contract lows with no support in sight. Bullish traders keep getting stopped out of the market.
4)	A chart gap remains above the market in all contracts. Gaps are generally filled before the contracts go off the board.	4)	Hogs have been unable to find support in cash and cutouts, indicating lackluster demand.