Thursday, December 20, 2018

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Feeder Paper Recovers Through Session Thanks in Part to Drooping Corn Prices

GENERAL COMMENTS: Feedlot country was not tested in terms of cash trading Thursday with packer bids pretty much few and far between. A small handful of dressed steers were reported in parts of the North at $190. For the most part, asking prices remained firm at $120-$122 on a live basis. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.83 lower compared with the Prior Day settlement ($40-$46.49, weighted average $44.68). March corn sank 6 1/2 cents, checked by noncommercial liquidation despite aggressive buying of corn from Mexico. Export sales and shipments of corn totaled 77.7 million and 38.4 million bushels last week, a new marketing-year high for sales, thanks to large purchases from Mexico. In another bearish reaction to higher interest rates, the Dow crashed by 464 points and the Nasdaq lost 108.
LIVE CATTLE: Generally speaking, live futures settled steady to 50 points higher. The gist of the trade could be described as light short-covering ahead of uncertain cash and on-feed news. The Dec. 1 on-feed report released Thursday afternoon looks neutral to a bit negative with November placement a bit larger than expected: on-feed, up 2%; placed in November, off 5%; marketed in November, up 1% (a new out-movement record for November). Beef cut-outs closed moderately higher with the choice up $0.77 ($212.47) and select up $0.41 ($205.26). Box demand was called good with light offerings.
FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1 higher. Light-to-moderate trade volume should develop sometime Friday afternoon with business generally steady to a buck higher.
FEEDER CATTLE: Feeders were successful Thursday in attracting buying interest with prices settling 30 cents to $1.22 in the green. Nearbys consistently outperformed deferreds. The major pullback in the corn market was clearly supportive. CME cash feeder Index for 12/19: $145.74, up $0.13.
LEAN HOGS: Lean issues finished narrowly mixed with closing prices ranging from up 30 cents to down 32 cents. The quarterly inventory was basically no shocker with most totals coming in very close to private estimates: all hogs, up 3%; kept for breeding, up 2%; kept for marketing, up 2%; fall pig crop, up 2%; pigs per litter Sep-Nov, unchanged; Dec-Feb farrowing intentions, up 2%; Mar-May farrowing intentions, up 2%. Carcass value closed higher, supported by all primals except the rib. The cut-out totaled $70.59, up $0.82. (DTN Projected lean index for CME cash lean index for 12/19: $54.65, off $0.35) CME cash lean index for 12/18: $55.00, off $0.07.
FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Look for the cash hog trade to remain on the defensive through the final business leg of the week.

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