GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's been a gloomy day for the livestock complex as the contracts stairstep their way to lower thresholds. It's unlikely that the market's predicament will get much better ahead of the day's close as the corn market is keeping with a modest rally which allows no relief to the market's high inputs. July corn is up 7 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 481.39 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
It's one thing to trend lower ahead of the weekend, but it's another to have cattle sold with a considerable amount of time and to see the market nearing long-term support levels ahead of Friday's afternoon. With the technical side of the live cattle market dead set on trading lower, feedlots are worried about what next week could hold. There's no doubt that at some point in the near) future packers are going to turn their backs to the cash cattle market as they work through their captive supplies and committed cattle. Then, the cash market will flop lower, and time will begin to work its way through the well-known dog days of summer. Last week's cash cattle volume was big, and this week's volume is shaping up to be big too, which again makes one wonder just how aggressive packers will be come next week with the board having already sold out for lower price points. June live cattle are down $1.22 at $132.67, August live cattle are down $1.07 at $135.27 and October live cattle are down $0.75 at $142.32. The cash cattle market hasn't seen much interest in Friday's market as trade is essentially done for the week.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.11 ($261.49) and select down $2.08 ($248.98) with a movement of 82 loads (33.21 loads of choice, 10.34 loads of select, 32.11 loads of trim and 6.51 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
It's as if the corn complex whispered, "kiss your hopes for Friday goodbye," as the market adds another $0.05 to $0.07 to its position. Without a minute to spare, the feeder cattle contracts saw the corn market's direction and began to fall lower. Without anything exciting or supportive happening in the live cattle market, the feeder cattle contracts have no other option but to plunder lower as grain prices show them no mercy. May feeders are down $1.37 at $156.57, August feeders are down $2.97 at $167.42 and September feeders are down $2.90 at $170.50.
LEAN HOGS:
Thursday's slightly higher close ended up being a head fake for the lean hog complex, as the market has fallen significantly lower since. June lean hogs are down $4.12 at $106.90, July lean hogs are down $4.22 at $110.37 and August lean hogs are down $3.52 at $110.20. As the market plummets to lows not seen since early February, hog producers are hoping that nearing summer events (cook outs, baseball games, graduation parties, etc.) draws more consumers to the marketplace and helps stabilize the market. It's unlikely that the market finds support ahead of the day's close and will ultimately have to wait until next week to see either how much more downside exists or if traders are starting to feel more comfortable as the basis between the nearby contracts and the deferred months narrows.
The projected lean hog index for April 28 is down $0.04 at $101.77 and the actual index for April 27 is down $0.53 at $101.81. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report are averaging $99.58, ranging from $96.00 to $111.00 on 3,432 head and a five-day rolling average of $97.69. Pork cutouts total 211.66 loads with 202.58 loads of pork cuts and 9.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.17, $104.32.
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