Thursday, April 28, 2022

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Not Much Support for the Live Cattle Sector

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's a mixed day for the livestock complex -- live cattle are trading fully lower, feeders are trading higher and the lean hog complex is mixed. Overall, it's been a tough technical week for the livestock contracts as traders have stepped back and let the contracts traipse lower. July corn is up 3 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $7.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 274.16 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market isn't feeling much love from traders Thursday morning as the complex plunders lower yet again. June live cattle are down $1.50 at $133.52, August live cattle are down $1.10 at $135.92 and October live cattle are down $0.75 at $142.65. The cash cattle market is sitting quiet as well, as packers have seemed to have fulfilled most of their needs for the week. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded for $140 and Northern dressed cattle have sold for $232. It's likely that some more clean-up trade happens here and there, but the week's prices are set, and business is all but done with. Thursday's export report didn't send warm gushing feelings throughout the market and so by and large, the live cattle sector is left to trend lower as support has been hard to muser through Thursday's market.

Beef net sales of 11,400 mt for 2022 were down 24% from the previous week and 34% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,100 mt), China (1,500 mt) and South Korea (1,300 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.74 ($262.65) and select down $0.44 ($251.88) with a movement of 96 loads (63.10 loads of choice, 13.14 loads of select, 6.05 loads of trim and 13.57 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

After Wednesday's sharp selloff, the feeder cattle contracts are trading higher despite the corn market's mild uptick. The feeder cattle complex has been a ping pong ball jump and diving to whatever signal the corn market makes. When corn prices are upward of $7.00 and $8.00 per bushel, they can send the feeder cattle complex spiraling lower, regardless of whatever the live cattle sector is doing. Thankfully, after the bloodbath that the feeder cattle contracts endured earlier this week, the market is seeing modest gains across the board heading into Thursday's afternoon. May feeders are up $0.62 at $157.97, August feeders are up $0.57 at $169.52 and September feeders are up $0.27 at $172.75.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is keeping with the tone that the market started the day with -- lower in the nearby contracts, while slightly higher in the deferred. The market cannot seem to attract consumer demand and traders deem that the nearby contracts got overdone which is why the market is now trading consistently lower in the front months. June lean hogs are down $0.77 at $109.62, July lean hogs are down $0.52 at $112.62 and August lean hogs are down $0.45 at $111.92.

Pork net sales of 31,500 mt for 2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 19% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (21,600 mt), Japan (3,600 mt) and Canada (2,100 mt).

The projected lean hog index for April 27 is down $0.53 at $101.81, and the actual index for April 26 is down $0.55 at $102.34. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that the five-day rolling average now sits at $97.33 and that 2,910 head have sold. Pork cutouts total 176.94 loads with 159.45 loads of pork cuts and 17.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.77, $104.74.




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