GENERAL COMMENTS:
The cattle futures are off to a bumpy start Monday as traders let the live and feeder cattle contracts drift lower amid a barn-burning start in the grain contracts. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex has jumped $2.00 higher in its nearby contracts as the market sees strong demand from consumers. May corn is up 24 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $4.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 122.07 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
After last week's impressive run, the live cattle market is itchy to keep the week's tone positive and to see cash cattle trade higher again. The market endured some pushback in Monday's trade as soaring grain prices keep the live cattle contracts at bay. June live cattle are up $0.12 at $136.55, August live cattle are down $0.07 at $138.25 and October live cattle are down $0.17 at $144.65. In order to see the cash cattle market have much success, feedlots need the approval and encouragement of the futures market as the two sides work hand in hand. With calf-fed fats not in the market yet, feedlots have a thin window from now until the middle of May before the market will become overloaded.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 97,066 head. Of that 73% (70,737 head) were committed for nearby delivery, while the remaining 27% (26,329 head) were committed for deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $2.01 ($270.61) and select up $0.29 ($259.19) with a movement of 38 loads (19.18 loads of choice, 8.82 loads of select, 3.87 loads of trim and 5.73 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
As grain prices soar higher Monday, the feeder cattle contracts are pushed lower as the live cattle complex isn't lending enough support to keep the feeders above steady. May feeders are down $2.20 at $159.60, August feeders are down $2.42 at $171.92 and September feeders are down $2.22 at $175.40. Sales will likely be thin this week as getting trucks in and out of shipping corrals in the North could be tough with hard-packed drifts and in the rest of the country the numbers of calves/feeders left to market are thin as most have already worked their way to earlier sales.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog market is having a stellar day as the board jumps $2.00 higher and pork cutout prices are being met with strong interest. June lean hogs are up $2.75 at $121.22, July lean hogs are up $2.30 at $121.72 and August lean hogs are up $2.05 at $119.80. We know better than to "count our chickens before they hatch" and to put too much faith into the morning's pork cutout report, but one can only hope demand is strong in the afternoon report and packers are shown that consumers want pork cuts and they should look at picking more hogs up in the cash market.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/15/2022 is up $0.35 at $100.32, and the actual index for 4/14/2022 is up $0.38 at $99.97. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Hog Report due to confidentiality issues. However, we can see that 2,271 head have traded and that the five-day rolling average sits at $95.95. Pork cutouts total 150.
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