GENERAL COMMENTS:
Even though the livestock complex entered the new year officially mixed following losses in hog prices and strong gains across the cattle complex, the focus on very-active price support in both live cattle and feeder cattle trade seemed to steal the attention of the entire market. Live cattle contracts were led higher by spot-month contracts trading over $4 higher, while most feeder cattle trade pushed prices $7 to $8 per cwt higher by the end of the session. Limited trade was seen during the holiday week, but it looks like an active beginning for 2026. Hog futures were lightly traded, with spot contracts holding $1 per cwt losses heading into the weekend. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.19 with a weighted average of $70.19 on 316 hogs. March corn closed down 2 3/4 at $4.375 and March soybean meal closed down $3.40 at $296. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 319.10 at 48,382.39.
For the week ending: 1/2/26
From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: February Live cattle up $6.18, April Live cattle up $6.28; January Feeder cattle up $9.93, March Feeder cattle up $12.53; February Lean hogs off $0.42, February Lean hogs off $0.42; February Pork cutout off $0.00, April Pork cutout unchanged.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures surged higher Friday with active buyer support flooding the market following the holiday break. Spot-month February futures led the market, pushing prices $4.40 per cwt higher and closing at $236 per cwt. The aggressive market move broke through the 100-day moving average and is at the highest price level since the last week of October. The current premium in the spot-month live cattle contract continues to focus on the tight supplies and also accounts for a $29 per cwt rally in the last six weeks. Although the tone of the market is expected to remain supportive through early January, there is uncertainty as to just how much additional buyer activity will develop early next week following these late-week and holiday impacted trade shifts seen Friday. Cash cattle markets remain relatively quiet Friday afternoon with light trade reported in parts of Nebraska with dressed sales marked at $360, $4 higher than last week's weighted average. Bids in the South are now around $232, but so far they are being passed as they remain a couple of dollars below current asking prices of around $234. February live cattle closed $4.40 higher at $236., April live cattle closed $3.78 higher at $235.975 and June live cattle closed $3.58 higher at $230.35.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.52 ($349.97) and select up $4.54 ($346.92) with a movement of 85.15 loads (59.11 loads of choice, 4.37 loads of select, 5.55 loads of trim and 16.12 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1 Higher. Momentum in both futures trade and cash market developments over the holiday week seem to be sparking further support. This should help solidify asking prices early Monday as both sides get back to a much more normal routine following the end of year holidays.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle futures quickly led not only the livestock market higher but became the focus across most commodity markets with aggressive triple-digit gains flooding into the market after the New Year's holiday. The aggressive start to all nearby feeder cattle contracts put the focus on current price levels well above 100-day moving averages and solidifying expectations of additional market support in the new year. The focus on continued tight feeder cattle supplies and beef demand that is not expected to slow in the near future is helping create aggressive buyer support in all nearby contracts. March through November contracts posted gains of $7 per cwt or greater during Friday's trade. Feeder cattle sales have been sluggish through the holiday season, but additional interest is expected to quickly develop early next week. January feeders closed $5.85 higher at $356.1, March feeders closed $7.63 higher at $352.95 and April feeders closed $8.03 higher at $352.25. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for December 30: up $1.78, $350.22.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures eased Friday following the holiday break. But to be fair for the overall lean hog complex, limited focus was seen in the hog market or most other markets other than the exploding cattle complex Friday. With feeder cattle contracts moving with rocketlike speed, and live cattle markets quickly trying to keep pace, the focus in early 2026 has little to do with hog market fundamentals. It is expected there may be some additional traction in the hog complex over the next week associated with additional moves in the cattle complex. But for the most part, lean hog trade is expected to hold to current trading patterns in the near future. February lean hogs closed $1.00 lower at $84.1, April lean hogs closed $0.80 lower at $89.1 and May lean hogs closed $0.63 lower at $93.375. Friday's hog slaughter is estimated at 391,000 head, 221,000 head more than a week ago and 77,000 head less than a year ago. Pork cutouts totaled 177.55 loads with 143.40 loads of pork cuts and 34.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.83 at $94.57. The CME Lean Hog Index for December 30: up $0.01, $82.26.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Hog buyers will be back in full swing early next week, needing to secure numbers for full production schedules over the next couple of weeks. The holiday-shortened processing and trading weeks are now in the rearview mirror and both sides are likely to be focusing on moving market-ready hogs in the upcoming days.
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