Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Higher Cash Cattle Trade Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle have not been traded this week, but there is a growing anticipation that it will be higher. There were some bids at $236 on Wednesday, but those were rejected, opening the door for high cash this week. This should push futures solidly through technical resistance and resume the uptrend. There is something I have not written about for some time and that is the chart gaps remaining in both live and feeder cattle futures from Oct. 16, 2025. Feeder cattle are closer to the gap. These gaps are generally filled, and it is something to keep in mind. Higher cash trade this week certainly would move futures closer to this objective. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Wednesday, with choice up $1.63 and select down $1.62.

Hogs ran out of steam on Thursday and gapped lower on the open. The April, May, June, and July contracts were unable to close the gaps. It was not due to a change in fundamentals, but likely some liquidation due to the overbought status of the market. It is difficult to believe that further liquidation will continue as the general attitude of traders remains supportive. The 2- to 3-day fund liquidation may not take place. However, there could be further weakness ahead of the weekend and the end of the month. Cash was higher on Wednesday with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report up $1.46. However, pork cutout values declined by $0.46. Hog weights inched back up to 293.1 pounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Some live cattle contracts pushed through and closed above resistance, opening the door for increased trader buying interest.	1)	Boxed beef prices have been mixed recently, possibly indicating demand has leveled off for the time being.
2)	Packer bids were posted at $236 on Wednesday, but were passed by feedlots, indicating higher prices will be needed to purchase the cattle on showlists.	2)	The reduced slaughter pace may not back up cattle in the country but may limit the prices packers will pay for those cattle.
3)	Hog futures gapped lower on the open on Wednesday, with the April through July contracts not closing the gaps. This will be accomplished at some point.	3)	Weekly hog weights increased 0.3 pounds to an average of 293.1 pounds. This is 2.3 pounds above a year ago.
4)	The slaughter pace remains strong, keeping hogs current. This indicates strong demand.	4)	There could be further liquidation of hogs into the end of the month as tr