GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex ended the day mixed as the cattle contracts closed slightly higher, while the lean hog contracts again ended the day lower. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding areas. March corn is down 24 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $5.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 86.13 points and the NASDAQ is up 62.55 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex closed higher as traders noted that after last Friday's close, fed cash cattle prices did indeed end up being the cash in the South, where cattle waited until the week's bitter end to trade. Traders remain optimistic about the market's outlook and are willing to advance the contracts, but would like to see more fundamental support before they'll likely do so in a meaningful manner. February live cattle closed $1.52 higher at $235.25, April live cattle closed $1.40 higher at $236.07 and June live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $230.60. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding areas. I do want to note that this afternoon select prices closed higher than choice prices – the last time this happened was on February 22, 2022. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.
Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $365, which is $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $232, which is $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 81,146 head. Of that 94% (75,967 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 6% was committed to the market's deferred delivery option.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.48 ($357.11) and select up $5.88 ($358.05) with a movement of 103 loads (51.50 loads of choice, 8.64 loads of select, 29.51 loads of trim and 12.85 loads of ground beef).
Monday's WASDE report shared mostly supportive news for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was increased by 10 million pounds as carcass weights continue to grow. Quarterly steer prices are mostly increased from last month's estimate as steers in the first quarter are expected to average $232 (up $2.00 from December); steers in the second quarter are expected to average $234 (unchanged from December); steers in the third quarter are expected to average $237 (up $1.00 from December); and steers in the fourth quarter are expected to average $240. Beef imports for 2026 were increased by 75 million pounds as shipments from Oceania and South America are expected to continue. Beef exports for 2026 were decreased by 60 million pounds as the price of beef remains a limiting export factor.
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers were able to buy a sizeable volume of cattle last week, and committed most of them to the nearby delivery, it likely means that prices this week will remain steady.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex seemed to again closely follow the direction of the live cattle market as its contracts also closed higher, but weren't willing to break beyond the market's current resistance threshold. January feeders closed $1.32 higher at $362.05, March feeders closed $1.47 higher at $356.17 and April feeders closed $1.40 higher at $354.45. At the Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week and at their midsession point, light four weight steers were trading $20.00 higher, while the heavier-weighted cattle were selling anywhere from $10.00 lower to $5.00 higher. Feeder heifers were selling $7.00 lower to $8.00 higher. The feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 60%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/9/2026: up $0.66, $368.56.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex closed lower as the market simply didn't see enough fundamental support to justify pushing the contracts back up to the resistance threshold. February lean hogs closed $0.87 lower at $84.42, April lean hogs closed $1.02 lower at $90.75 and June lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at$104.02. Packers have been barely participating in the cash hog market, and again this afternoon that was the case. Hog prices weren't available on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can still see that only 319 head traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $72.21.
Pork cutouts totaled 364.06 loads with 320.48 loads of pork cuts and 43.57 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.78, $93.10. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 497,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 14,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/8/2026: down $0.13, $80.85.
Monday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog and pork industry of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was increased by 740 million pounds as the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report in December shared that there are more hogs in the countryside than originally assumed. The quarterly price projections didn't change from December as hogs in the first quarter are anticipated to average $64; hogs in the second quarter are expected to average $70; hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $72; and hogs in the fourth quarter are expected to average $61. Pork imports for 2026 increased by 15 million pounds, and pork exports for 2026 increased by 60 million pounds.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given how few hogs packers bought last week, one would think they'll need to buy more hogs this week.
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