Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Agriculture Secretary Rollins Cancels Trip to Douglas, Arizona

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash trade and boxed beef did not provide support to the market on Thursday. Northern dressed cattle and Southern live cattle both traded $2.00 lower, with that trend expected to continue today. Boxed beef declined, with choice down $0.69 and select down $0.75. The strength may have stemmed from some profit-taking after six consecutive days of weakness. The short covering may also have been from the news that Agriculture Secretary Rollins canceled her trip to Douglas, Arizona, amid ongoing border biosecurity questions. There has been no information about rescheduling her trip. Whether further aggressive buying will continue today is uncertain. The market may have been corrected in line with the fundamentals.

Hog futures extended their strength another day, following the pattern of three days of short covering in an oversold market. Weekly export sales totaled 16,100 metric tons (mt), marking a marketing-year low, but that was unable to keep futures from increasing, as one week does not indicate a trend. Due to packer confidentiality, prices were not available on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report. Packers could be more aggressive today as they need to finish up purchases for the week. However, pork cutout values were down $0.73. This could be negative for the market.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may have found a bottom after six consecutive days of losses. Further short covering into the weekend may take place.	1)	Cash cattle traded lower so far this week, and that trend is expected to continue today.
2)	The Mexican border will remain closed for now, as the trip to Arizona by Rollins has been canceled.	2)	The weakness of boxed beef may be an indication that consumers are reducing their beef consumption as they search for less expensive alternatives.
3)	Hog futures have had a nice rebound, which may continue into the weekend as the market corrects from being oversold.	3)	The chart gaps in the hog market are at a technical level that is likely to be filled at some point. Futures would need to decline to fill those gaps.
4)	Packers may aggressively bid up for hogs to finish up their purchases for the week. Sales were light on Thursday.	4)	Pork cutouts lack the consistency of support needed to provide traders with the confidence that demand is improving.