Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders to Position Ahead of the Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures were unable to extend their gains from Tuesday due to no cash cattle trade and lower boxed beef prices. Traders may also have started looking ahead to the Cattle on Feed report, which will be released on Friday, and begun positioning themselves before its release. The trade estimates are for on feed as of April 1 at 99.7%. Placements in March are estimated at 93.3%. Marketings are estimated at 93.6%. Wherever the numbers fall may result in a reaction next week, but even if it is bearish, it may not have any lasting impact on the market. This has been the pattern with numerous previous reports. Cash cattle have not yet traded this week and are unlikely to today. Boxed beef declined on Wednesday, with choice down $1.22 and select down $1.22.

Hog futures could not find sufficient aggressive buying interest to stem the tide of lower prices. Futures have declined for seven consecutive days as traders are disappointed over both the uncertainty of fundamentals and the lack of technical support. The June and July contracts have closed at the lowest level since Dec. 19, 2025. Even though pork demand is good, prompting packers to increase slaughter speeds, they have not had to bid aggressively to obtain the hogs they need. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.11. Unfortunately, pork cutouts declined by $3.65. Weekly hog weights inched higher to average 291.4 pounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle are expected to be higher this week as packers did not purchase many cattle last week. They may need to bid higher to obtain cattle.	1)	Traders may trim their long positions ahead of the Cattle on Feed report, just in case the report is bearish.
2)	Cattle placements are expected to be 6.7% below a year ago. The beef herd is not being rebuilt, and beef-on-dairy calves are not making up the difference.	2)	Beef may soon experience demand destruction due to continued high prices and the impact of higher fuel prices on consumer spending.
3)	Hog futures are oversold, and short covering could take place at any time.	3)	Weekly hog weights increased 0.3 pounds last week, averaging 291.4 pounds. This is 0.4 pounds above a year ago.
4)	Hog slaughter remains strong, indicating that packers need to increase slaughter due to good pork demand.	4)	Cash hogs and pork cutouts fail to provide solid support to the market. Traders have more evidence of solid demand.