Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May Rebound

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures showed some surprising weakness, falling significantly for 15 minutes around midmorning for no apparent reason other than sell stops being triggered. Futures regained most of those losses as the day progressed. The Cattle on Feed report was neutral to slightly friendly. On feed as of April 1 was 99.5% of a year ago. Placements were at 92.7% compared to March 2025. Both the on-feed and placement numbers were below the average trade estimates. Marketings were 94.5% and slightly above the average trade estimate. Cattle futures moved lower ahead of the report but may regain some of the losses Monday. The cash cattle trade was basically unchanged from the previous week. Early estimates are for steady to slightly lower cash trade this week. Boxed beef prices were lower, with choice down $0.51 and select down $1.88. The Commitments of Traders report showed the fund traders added 3,424 long futures contracts in live cattle, moving their net-long position to 132,839. They added 836 long positions to feeder cattle, bringing their net-long position to 21,951 contracts.

It was not a good week for hog futures, with contracts closing lower each day. The market is oversold, but that may be meaningless if traders see little fundamental reason to be aggressive, given the lack of fundamental support. Pork demand is improving, but supplies are sufficient with increased slaughter providing sufficient pork to the market. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.12, leaving much to be desired. Packers are expected to be less aggressive at the start of the week. Pork cutouts did well on Friday, with values up $2.52. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders reducing their net-long futures position in hogs by 10,695, to a total long position of 78,031 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report was slightly friendly and may move higher as the market adjusts after positioning ahead of the report.	1)	The Cattle on Feed report was expected to be friendly, yet the market declined ahead of the report. This may indicate the market may be near a peak.
2)	Cattle supplies remain tight, and consumers continue to prefer beef and are paying higher prices to obtain it. Tight cattle supplies will continue.	2)	Cattle prices were unable to post gains last week as packers remained unaggressive. The same might be true this week.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and should find a level at which buyers will take advantage of the lower price.	3)	Consistent support from both cash hogs and pork cutouts remains elusive. Traders may remain unaggressive.