Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Red Meat Production Down 4%

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures were unchanged to 67.5 cents Thursday while feeder cattle futures fell $1.725 to $1.925. Most bulls have taken on their desired positions ahead of Friday's Cattle on Feed report while sellers are taking advantage of the higher prices. Thursday, USDA released its monthly Livestock Slaughter report. Commercial red meat production fell 4% year over year with the largest percentage drops in veal and beef production. Veal production totaled 1.7 million pounds, 13% below September 2025. Beef production totaled 2.04 billion pounds, which fell 6% year over year. Cattle slaughter totaled 2.30 million head, down 7% from September 2025. The average live weight was up 14 pounds at 1,447 pounds.

Lean hog futures fell again Thursday, declining 7.5 to 50 cents and making new contract lows. Pork cutout values were slightly higher Thursday, climbing 73 cents per cwt. NASS's Livestock Slaughter report has pork production at 2.27 billion pounds, down 3% from last September. Hog slaughter totaled 10.6 million head, down 3% year over year and the average live weight was up 1 pound at 287 pounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Friday is the day for the Cattle on Feed report. Expectations are for lower placements and head on feed.	1)	Beef cutout values fell Thursday by $3.12 for choice and $4.93 for select. This is a fairly large drop for a single day.
2)	Beef production fell in September to 2.04 billion pounds, down 6% year over year.	2)	Packers purchased a large volume of cattle over the last two weeks and have time to be patient for the next purchase.
3)	Pork production fell in September to 2.27 billion pounds, down 3% from 2025.	3)	The Commitments of Traders report is expected to have grown the number of short positions for managed money in the lean hog futures contracts.
4)	Pork cutout values were slightly higher Thursday.	4)	Lean hog futures contracts have made new lows this week, and do not appear to have run out of sellers yet.