Monday, August 5, 2019

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Gains Develop Following Early Pressure

General Comments
Livestock futures have turned sharply higher late Monday morning following early losses across the complex. The limited sell orders moving into the already oversold complex evaporated, allowing for buying to redevelop at midday. Corn futures are higher in light trade. September corn futures are 3 3/4 cents higher. Stock markets are lower in light trade. Dow Jones is 613 points lower with NASDAQ down 246 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Light to moderate gains have trickled into live cattle futures trade late Monday morning as traders adjust positions following the sharp losses during the morning and liquidation, which occurred late last week. The turnaround in all livestock trade and most ag commodity markets late Monday morning is helping to spark increased underlying stability as traders try to regroup following previous market pressure. This could allow prices to swing higher and lower through the rest of the Monday session as traders try to focus on longer-term market direction. Cash cattle activity remains quiet Monday with wide-ranging futures market swings causing packers and feeders to evaluate expectations later in the week. Inventory taking and show list distribution is likely to be the extent of activity Monday with bids and asking prices likely undeveloped until Tuesday or later. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are steady to higher, $1.06 higher (select) and steady per cwt (choice) with light movement of 53 total loads reported (20 loads of choice cuts, 8 loads of select cuts, 4 loads of trimmings, 20 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Triple-digit gains have flooded through feeder cattle trade late morning with gains of $1.50 to $2.30 per cwt seen at midday. This replaced sharp morning losses that developed following the underlying bearishness in most commodity markets and concerns of trade actions with China on overall economic strength. Nearby feeder cattle futures have traded in an extremely wide range, moving within a trading range of $7 to $8 per cwt through the morning. The ability to hold onto strong triple-digit gains through the end of the session will go a long ways in helping to rekindle longer-term buyer support.
LEAN HOGS:
October lean hog futures have surged higher at midday, holding a $3.50-per-cwt rally as buyers quickly move back into the complex despite the early market losses. Given the limit or near-limit moves in most nearby contracts over the first two hours of trade, the late-morning market rally is sparking increased overall support through the complex as traders cover short positions. October futures have traded in a wide range of $8.40 per cwt through the morning, adding even more uncertainty to market direction. Even though nearby futures have shifted higher, deferred futures are still mixed in a narrow range. This could lead to increased wide market swings before the end of the session. Cash prices are unavailable at this time on the National Direct morning cash hog report. Pork values surged higher following a $20 per cwt rally in belly cuts. Pork cutouts added $3.52 per cwt at $90.16 per cwt with 101 loads traded. Lean hog index for 8/1 is $84.64, up 0.53, with a projected two-day index is $84.68, up 0.04.


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