Friday, August 2, 2019

Friday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Trade War Tensions Add Additional Concerns

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Limited cash cattle trade reported Thursday afternoon fell in line with prices earlier in the week, with markets steady to $1 per cwt weaker than week-ago levels. There is the potential for some clean-up trade to develop through the end of the week, but most negotiated trade is likely to be done for the week as both sides are expected to remain cautious about stepping into the current market volatility Friday. Cash cattle prices were generally $111 per cwt in the South and $183 dressed bid in the North. Futures trade is expected mixed to mostly lower as underlying weakness surrounding trade issues with China will create a weaker tone on the market even though beef will remain less impacted by trade relations with China than other commodities. The weakness in grain trade that is expected, should have some underlying support through the cattle complex as traders continue to focus on lower production costs as grain markets slide lower through late summer.

Follow-through pressure is expected to redevelop in lean hog futures as hog markets will likely be impacted on the trade war with China that has quickly ratcheted higher the past two days. The announcement by Trump to add a 10% tariff on remaining imports from China sparked an aggressive and massive market sell-off in stock markets and lean hog trade late Thursday. Friday, China threatened retaliation for the move, which will likely significantly hurt any chances of additional pork moving to China. Even before these announcements, the cancellation of previous export sales to China reported on Thursday's export sales report confirmed the overall lack of product movement to China, which needs pork to fill its domestic demands after African swine fever has reduced production. Following losses Thursday, technical pressure is expected to develop also as October futures broke through long-term support levels, potentially sparking widespread additional losses across the complex. Cash bids are expected $1 Lower to $1 per cwt higher with most bids steady to weak. Expected slaughter Friday is at 462,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 34,000 head.


BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1)
Strong underlying futures support developed on Aug. 1, potentially helping to establish support near $107.50, and regain buyer support in the near future based on expected domestic demand strength through the end of the year.
1)
Strong pressure in feeder cattle trade Thursday created widespread concerns following gains in live cattle market and grain market weakness. The inability for feeder cattle trade to respond positively to these market factors caused significant underlying concern in the entire complex.
2)
Wholesale beef values firmed Thursday, helping to stimulate additional fundamental confidence through the entire complex. This may create additional underlying buying interest at the end of the week.
2)
Outside market factors will play a key role in driving the direction of live cattle trade Friday. This could allow for moderate-to-wide market shifts and additional potential bearishness based on the market's reaction to the latest trade issues with China.
3)
Continued support is seen in pork cutout values, as traders continue to focus on strong domestic demand. The ability to sustain current pork price levels will go a long way in stabilizing the entire complex the next couple of weeks.
3)
Aggressive follow-through pressure is expected in lean hog trade following a $3.50 to $4 per cwt loss in nearby trade late Thursday. This late day move, broke through long-term support levels, and created additional technical pressure in the entire complex.
4)
Lean hog futures remain oversold following the aggressive move lower the past several trading sessions. This could allow technical support to redevelop at any sign that selling interest is fading.
4)
Any hope of hog market relief concerning trade situations with China was dashed over the last two days as Trump announced additional tariffs will be placed on remaining imports from China. The announced retaliation threat by China Friday morning is not a surprise, as the tit-for-tat moves over the last year was generally expected by most market watchers.


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