GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as traders remained leery of supporting the live cattle contracts ahead of Friday's Cattle on Feed report, but both the feeder cattle and lean hog contracts closed higher.
Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.90 with a weighted average of $66.02 on 3,990 hogs. July corn closed down 10 3/4 at $6.153 and July soybean meal closed down $5.10 at $443.6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 22.34 at 33,808.96.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle down $0.78, June live cattle up $0.80; April feeder cattle up $0.38, May feeder cattle up $4.50; June lean hogs down $0.80, July lean hogs down $0.85; May corn down $0.03, July corn down $0.21.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex was cautious throughout all of Friday's market as traders were leery of supporting the marketplace ahead of seeing what Friday's Cattle on Feed report unveiled. And while the report shared on-feed and placement figures lighter than a year ago, they fell either just within or outside of analyst's projections, which could cause the market some grief on Monday as traders seem to worry about where the actual USDA figures landed as opposed to the estimates more than anything else. No more cash cattle trade has developed as feedlots are hoping that they'll be able to get the market back to trending steady next week. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle have mostly sold for $175, which is fully steady in Texas but $1.00 lower in Kansas when compared to a year ago. Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $288 which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. April live cattle closed $0.13 lower at $173.975, June live cattle closed $0.18 higher at $164.525 and August live cattle closed $0.13 higher at $163.55.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head, 4,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 12,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 622,000 head, 9,000 head more than a week ago and 42,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.39 ($306.6) and select down $0.94 ($287.8) with a movement of 104.13 loads (77.62 loads of choice, 15.01 loads of select, 5.61 loads of trim and 5.89 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week, choice cuts averaged $306.51 (up $8.60 from last week) and select cuts averaged $289.79 (up $7.89 from last week) and the week's total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 528 loads.
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. The fact remains that front-end supplies of market-ready cattle are tight and prices should be able to remain strong so long as demand remains elevated.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex closed higher as it saw the corn market's steady to $0.10 decline as a perfect reason to charge through Friday's end. The complex received little support from the live cattle market as live cattle traders were leery of doing much of anything ahead of Friday's Cattle on Feed report. The report printed lighter on-feed and placement numbers than a year ago, but the data was on the heavy end of the spectrum compared to what analysts had projected. It's likely that Monday's market reacts to the report negatively as traders seem to care more about where the actual USDA figured landed compared to what analysts assumed more than anything else. April feeders closed $1.25 lower at $203.775, May feeders closed $0.05 higher at $212.4 and August feeders closed $0.35 higher at $229.875. The weekly Oklahoma Cattle Auction Summary shared that, compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers traded mostly steady. Steer calves traded $3.00 to $5.00 higher and heifer calves sold steady to $5.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold $2.00 to $6.00 lower, but slaughter bulls remained steady. Feeder cattle supplies over 600 pounds was 60%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 19: down $0.81, $203.10.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex finally received some relief from the week's back-and-forth nature as the futures complex closed higher and pork cutout values also closed higher. It's tough telling whether or not next week's market will continue with this higher trend as so much depends on demand from U.S. consumers and what pork cutout values do. It's somewhat concerning that the day's pork cutout values were largely driven higher by a $5.22 gain in the ham and a $5.24 gain the belly -- both cuts are volatile and could fall lower on Monday, but time will tell. June lean hogs closed $1.00 higher at $86.07, July lean hogs closed $0.65 higher at $88.80 and August lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $89.95. Pork cutouts totaled 247.76 loads with 211.87 loads of pork cuts and 35.89 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $2.28 at $80.43. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 469,000, 3,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 85,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 19: down $0.16, $71.41.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers have been closely monitoring their margins by keeping cash prices low and they'll likely keep with this practice until supplies tighten.
No comments:
Post a Comment