Thursday, April 20, 2023

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Northern Feedlots Hold Out for More Money

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been another quiet day throughout the livestock complex as both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts trade higher amid cheaper corn prices. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is now trading lower as domestic demand continues to be an issue for the hog market. May corn is down 9 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 86.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market is trading mostly higher into Thursday's noon hour as traders were pleased with Thursday morning's export report. The real kicker in Thursday's market will be what happens with Northern cash cattle trade. There were a few head sold Thursday morning in Nebraska at $288, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average, but not everyone seems thrilled with the idea of selling cattle for cheaper money this week and hold out for more. To feedlot's advantage is the fact that the futures complex is trading higher and that packers are still close to the knife and in desperate need of cattle. I tend to believe that those who wait for higher prices will be thankful they did this week. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists remains at $176 to $177 in the South and $290 plus in the North. April live cattle are down $0.57 at $174.85, June live cattle are up $0.25 at $163.85 and August live cattle are up $0.27 at $163.02.

Beef net sales of 19,100 mt for 2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and 47% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (5,500 mt), Japan (4,200 mt) and Mexico (2,800 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.52 ($307.44) and select down $2.94 ($288.52) with a movement of 47 loads (24.12 loads of choice, 14.49 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.48 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With a significant $0.09 to $0.13 drop in nearby corn prices, the feeder cattle contracts are back to rallying thus far throughout Thursday's market. The combination of spillover support from a slightly stronger live cattle market to the fact that corn prices are dipping considerably lower all helps strengthen the feeder cattle complex. May feeders are up $0.37 at $210.85, August feeders are up $1.62 at $228.40 and September feeders are up $1.42 at $231.00.

LEAN HOGS:

It's a bitter day thus far for the lean hog complex as traders are currently trading below the support established last Thursday. As traders long for a better demand environment in the hog complex, they continue to be pressured to send the contracts lower as U.S. consumers have been a tough consumer base to pinpoint consistently. June lean hogs are down $1.30 at $85.12, July lean hogs are down $1.15 at $88.20 and August lean hogs are down $1.00 at $89.47.

Pork net sales of 36,100 mt for 2023 were up 33% from the previous week but down 3% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (13,100 mt), Japan (4,600 mt) and Australia (4,200 mt).

The projected lean hog index for April 19 is down $0.16 at $71.41, and the actual index for April 18 is down $0.07 at $71.57. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to packer submission issues. Pork cutouts total 128.31 loads with 109.22 loads of pork cuts and 19.09 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.28, $78.09.




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