GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a mixed day for the livestock complex, as live cattle and feeder cattle struggled with the onset of cheaper cash cattle prices. But the lean hog market nearly exploded. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.38 with a weighted average of $71.67 on 6,890 head. July corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel, and July soybean meal is up $5. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 211.98 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle up $1.20, June live cattle up $0.95; May feeder cattle down $1.43, August feeders up $0.85; June lean hogs up $5.63, July lean hogs up $4.88; May corn down $0.27, July corn down $0.30.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex struggled Friday, as traders would have liked to trade higher, but with cash cattle prices venturing lower, it wasn't possible. June live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $165.47, August live cattle closed $0.07 lower at $163.77 and October live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $167.62. Come Monday, it will be important to seek out the cash cattle report, which indicates how cash cattle sales were committed for delivery. Feedlots tried to market cattle higher but were simply met with unwillingness from packers to negotiate. Feedlots sold cattle cheaper this past week, but if they also sold cattle into the deferred delivery option, that will be a bitter, bitter pill for the market to swallow and make trading cattle higher in the weeks to come nearly impossible. Throughout the week, Northern dressed cattle sold for $275 to $285, but mostly at $283 to $285, which is $3 to $5 lower than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded for $173, which is $2 lower than last week's weighted average.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 106,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 18,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 620,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 27,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.37 ($311.44) and select down $0.75 ($288.34) with a movement of 87 loads (50.32 loads of choice, 13.08 loads of select, 11.98 loads of trim and 11.45 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week, choice cuts averaged $309.30 (up $2.79 from last week) and select cuts averaged $288.34 (down $1.45 from last week) and the week's total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 487 loads.
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Whether packers were able to get cattle bought with time will significantly affect next week's cash market.
FEEDER CATTLE:
It was a mind-boggling day for the feeder cattle complex, as the market had to juggle the mixed messages from both the live cattle/cash cattle market and the corn complex. Corn prices were all over the board Friday, closing anywhere from $0.02 lower to $0.09 higher. And a clearer message wasn't received from the live cattle complex either. Beef demand remains incredibly strong, but cash cattle prices trended $2 to $5 lower this week. Nevertheless, the feeder cattle contracts closed lower, but demand throughout the countryside remains superb, as buyers know that supplies of feeders and calves are only going to grow thinner and thinner as the year progresses. May feeders closed $0.55 lower at $210.97, August feeders closed $0.85 lower at $230.72 and September feeders closed $0.72 lower at $233.80. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers traded steady to $2 higher, and feeder heifers sold steady to $3 stronger. Steer calves sold mostly steady, but there were some instances of $5 lower. Heifer calves sold $1 to $3 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 56%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/27/2023: not available at this time.
LEAN HOGS:
What a way to round out the week! The lean hog complex simply grew stronger and stronger as the week traded on, and with consistent support from packers in the cash market and better support from consumers, the futures complex seemed to turn over a new leaf and shot higher. June lean hogs closed $1.60 higher at $91.70, July lean hogs closed $1.17 higher at $93.67 and August lean hogs closed $1.20 higher at $94.67. The real test of the market's recent advancement will come next week. If the complex can sustain these gains, it's safe to say that a new bottom may have been established. Monitoring pork cutout values will remain inherently important, and any support that the cash hog market can lend will be gravy on top. Pork cutouts totaled 192.98 loads with 167.90 loads of pork cuts and 25.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.51, $81.32. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 450,000 head -- 14,000 head less than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 47,000 head. The CME lean hog index 4/26/2023: down $0.02, $71.29.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers tilted their cards this past week, and it was beyond apparent that they were short bought hogs. Now whether they procured enough hogs this past week to meet the needs of their upcoming kills remains unknown, but it's likely they'll have to stay more engaged in the market in the weeks ahead.
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