Tuesday, April 25, 2023

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Outside Pressures Drive Livestock Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's another frustrating day for the livestock complex as external pressures continue to send the contracts trailing lower in all three of the markets. This doggish tone will likely keep with the contracts through closing. July corn is down 4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 148.23 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is continuing to chop sideways as traders remain fearful of the market, seeming unsure of whether or not they can still believe in the market's tremendous fundamental strength or if they should just bow down to the whims of today's technical down pressure. June live cattle are down $0.60 at $163.95, August live cattle are down $0.65 at $162.80 and October live cattle are down $0.55 at $166.92. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any business develop yet as packers are praying that the week's weakness continues into Wednesday and Thursday and that they'll possibly be able to buy cattle at cheaper money again this week. Whether or not feedlots will let this week's hiccup steal the cash cattle market's momentum is still unknown, but the fact does remain that front-end supplies of market ready cattle are thin, and that demand is strong enough to garnish higher cash prices.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.34 ($306.78) and select up $2.01 ($290.71) with a movement of 82 loads (54.74 loads of choice, 11.31 loads of select, 4.09 loads of trim and 11.44 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts would usually be rallying in the wake of cheaper corn prices, but as traders continue to be hounded by pressures, the nearby contracts have yet to stumble into an opportunity where they could grow stronger. It's not all that surprising that the effects of last week's Cattle on Feed report are still negatively affecting the market as traders refuse to look at the report's true findings and instead are only focused on how the actual USDA numbers vary from those of analyst estimates. If the live cattle market is able to trade steady to somewhat higher later this week, then that could give feeders some support, but that will take a major turnaround in the market compared to what's transpiring Tuesday. May feeders are down $1.30 at $209.45, August feeders are down $0.02 at $229.30 and September feeders are up $0.10 at $232.10.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though cash hog prices, midday pork cutout values and the nearby lean hog contracts are continuing to trade lower, surprisingly the deferred lean hog contracts are keeping with their mild ascend. The nearby contracts are continuing to struggle as demand remains a questionable component of Tuesday's market and outside pressures are making it even harder for the livestock contracts to find any technical support. June lean hogs are down $0.27 at $87.07, July lean hogs are down $0.30 at $89.80 and August lean hogs are down $0.32 at $90.90.

The projected lean hog index for April 24 is up $0.02 at $71.20, and the actual index for April 21 is down $0.13 at $71.18. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.58 with a weighted average of $65.47, ranging from $65.00 to $69.00 on 2,986 head and a five-day rolling average of $66.48. Pork cutouts total 213.17 loads with 178.83 loads of pork cuts and 34.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.39, $78.29.




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