GENERAL COMMENTS:
Thus far, Monday's market has been mixed as traders are eager and willing to help the cattle contracts move higher but are reluctant to help the lean hog complex. Demand in both the pork and beef markets will be a key factor traders monitor this week as they're desperate for better fundamental support. December corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 633.96 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is posting a modest bounce following late last week's gruesome decline. At Monday's noon hour, all live cattle contracts are posting gains above $1.00, and this is aiding the feeder cattle contracts to higher price points as well. The market has been challenged significantly since the beginning of July, so it's too soon to say what kind of support Monday's higher trend brings. October live cattle are up $1.62 at $176.82, December live cattle are up $1.90 at $176.60, and February live cattle are up $1.95 at $177.35. It's too early in the week for asking prices or bids to have been posted yet, but with packers strategically buying cattle with time over the last couple weeks, feedlot managers are going to be hard pressed to get prices to trade steady.
Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $181, which is $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $288, which is also $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 67,595 head. Of that 68% (45,760 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 32% (21,835 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.20 ($309.61) and select up $3.94 ($300.06) with a movement of 57 loads (25.12 loads of choice, 10.73 loads of select, 10.00 loads of trim and 11.46 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The cattle complex has danced back and forth, but as we approach Monday's noon hour, with the added support of the higher trading live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts are also trading higher. September feeders are up $2.62 at $236.92, October feeders are up $3.40 at $234.35, and November feeders are up $2.80 at $230.82. So long as the live cattle complex continues to trade higher, feeders shouldn't struggle to keep their higher tone through Monday's close. It's a relief to see the complex trading higher as Friday's close was at support levels and if traders would have elected to send the feeder cattle market trading lower this morning, it's anyone's guess where new technical support would have been found at.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex isn't as quick to turn and change direction as the cattle contracts are. Most of the lean hog contracts are still trading lower as traders want to see substantial fundamental support before they'll again advance the board. Midday pork cutout values are higher, but traders are more interested in seeing what Monday's afternoon prices do as that's a better indication of the market's true consumer support. October lean hogs are down $0.32 at $79.17, December lean hogs are down $0.10 at $71.12, and February lean hogs are down $0.17 at $74.72.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/6/2024 is down $0.50 at $85.74, and the actual index for 9/5/2024 is down $0.19 at $86.24. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that only 147 head have traded, and the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $78.14. Pork cutouts total 164.45 loads with 132.20 loads of pork cuts and 32.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.78, $97.88.
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