GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was an exhilarating day for the cattle complex as the contracts rallied through the day's end and cash cattle prices rallied $2.00 to $3.00 higher. And thankfully Friday's Cattle on Feed report will likely be found as mostly neutral for the market. December corn is down 4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 38.17 points.
From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $4.82, December live cattle up $4.70; September feeder cattle up $2.93, October feeder cattle up $4.78; October lean hogs up $3.78, December lean hogs up $2.93; December corn down $0.12 and March corn down $0.11.
LIVE CATTLE:
Someone might have yelled, "Katy bar the door," because Friday was a moving and shaking day kind of day for the live cattle complex. First, the cash cattle market successfully accomplished its goal as prices traded higher in both regions. Northern cattle were sold at mostly $290 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average and Southern live cattle were marked at mostly $183 which is also $2.00 to $3.00 higher than last week's weighted. Secondly, it was also encouraging for traders to not only see cash cattle prices higher but to also see boxed beef prices round out the day on a higher note as well. And lastly, the gains seen throughout the futures complex were praiseworthy as trades moved the spot December contract not only above its 40-day moving average this past week, but by Friday's close the market also had surpassed its 100-day moving average. And the last time the market traded above its 100-day moving average was before the market melt down early in August. Needless to say, Friday's market was beyond fruitful for the cattle complex -- now hopefully next week's market can continue to build on the strong energy established this past week. October live cattle closed $2.50 higher at $182.47, December live cattle closed $2.07 higher at $183.20 and February live cattle closed $1.42 higher at $183.77.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head – 10,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 9,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 610,000 head -- 10,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.63 ($300.19) and select up $0.33 ($288.59) with a movement of 130 loads (84.30 loads of choice, 15.08 loads of select, 6.75 loads of trim and 23.81 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Much of next week's cash trade will depend on how many cattle packers got bought this past week.
FEEDER CATTLE:
It was another fruitful day for the feeder cattle complex as the market well was supported once again thanks to active demand in the countryside for feeder cattle and thanks to the roll over support from the live cattle/cash cattle market's higher trend. It was especially encouraging however to see the feeder cattle complex trade higher even though this afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released. So often traders wipe their hands of the market ahead of the COF report simply because they know that there is a chance that bearish tones could be the theme of the report's data. However, traders opted to focus on the market's profound gains this past week and thankfully the COF report didn't share any groundbreaking news either. DTN's Cattle on Feed report is available here:
October feeders closed $0.12 higher at $243.90, November feeders closed $0.42 higher at $241.77 and January feeders closed $0.65 higher at $236.77. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week feeder steers and heifers traded $2.00 to $7.00 higher, but steer and heifer calves sold $2.00 to $7.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold $9.00 to $10.00 lower and slaughter bulls traded $10.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 63%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/19/2024: down $1.16, $243.26.
LEAN HOGS:
The nearby lean hog contracts may have closed slightly lower, but the market was able to maintain its higher position through the market's deferred contract. More than anything traders' eagerness to advance the nearby contracts seemed to dwindle as the cattle complex drew more of trader's attention and interest with its ambitious gain. Not to mention, earlier in the week the market ran the spot December contract to the highest position it's traded at since early June and with pork cutout values being mixed this week, traders want to see more support before they advance the complex anymore. October lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $82.22, December lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $74.22 and February lean hogs closed $0.22 higher at $77.50. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.61 with a weighted average price of $76.88 on 2,097 head. Pork cutouts totaled 232.91 loads with 214.97 loads of pork cuts and 17.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.66, $94.15. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 475,000 head – 1,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 140,000 head. The CME lean hog index 9/18/2024: up $0.16, $84.38.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers will likely want to see how demand shapes up early next week before they support the cash market too wildly.
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