GENERAL COMMENTS:
Traders are really pushing the lean hog complex lower ahead of the afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report as pre-report nervousness runs rampant throughout the hog complex. Some early sales are currently being reported in the South at $185 live which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. December corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 239.72 points.
Thursday's export report stated that beef net sales of 10,100 mt for 2024 were down 35% from the previous week and 34% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were China (2,100 mt), Japan (1,700 mt) and Mexico (1,600 mt). Pork net sales of 28,000 mt for 2024 were down 3% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (13,000 mt), Canada (3,300 mt) and China (2,700 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is rallying into Thursday's noon hour as traders are elated to see early sales being reported in the South at $185, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Still no sales have been made in the North, but asking prices are firm for dressed cattle at $295. October live cattle are up $0.60 at $183.65, December live cattle are up $0.37 at $184.70 and February live cattle are up $0.07 at $185.52. It is disappointing to see midday boxed beef prices lower as there seems to be some consumer pullback from the meat counter because if anything prices from a supply and demand perspective prices should be a tick higher this week as packers have reduced throughput which limits some supply and theoretically should push prices higher. But with the market seeing the opposite, one must wonder if consumers are spending the grocery budget elsewhere for meat as inflation continues to a be distressing problem for most Americans.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.53 ($296.64) and select down $0.35 ($282.93) with a movement of 83 loads (26.04 loads of choice, 19.50 loads of select, 7.72 loads of trim and 30.15 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Even though the live cattle complex is trading mostly higher, the feeder cattle complex is trading in a more reserved manner as traders seem to be pumping the brakes until more fundamental support surfaces from the fed cash cattle market. October feeders are down $0.07 at $245.95, November feeders are down $0.17 at $243.87 and January feeders are down $0.75 at $237.77. But given the market's recent gains in the futures complex, seeing a slight pull-back as traders merely catch their breath, it's all that surprising.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is trading lower as the market braces for this afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. October lean hogs are down $0.95 at $81.52, December lean hogs are down $2.00 at $72.90 and February lean hogs are down $1.92 at $76.72. The market's reaction ahead of the USDA report seems a little overdone given that pork cutout values are higher and given that the cash market is seeing more interest than assumed for a Thursday. But as always, traders typically act unnervingly ahead of any big USDA report unveiling.
The projected lean hog index for 9/25/2024 is up $0.02 at $84.07 and the actual index for 9/24/2024 is down $0.16 at $84.05. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.43 with a weighted average price of $77.76, ranging from $72.00 to $80.00 on 1,580 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.48. Pork cutouts total 182.35 loads with 168.84 loads of pork cuts and 13.51 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.30, $94.40.
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