GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a prosperous day for the livestock complex as the vast majority of the contracts closed higher thanks to the support of strong equity markets. The cash cattle market still hasn't traded, and at this point it's looking like feedlots may be able to hold this week's market steady when trade does develop. December corn is down 7 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 522.09 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,500 mt for 2024 were up 36% from the previous week and 2% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,700 mt), China (3,000 mt) and Japan (2,900 mt). Pork net sales of 29,000 mt for 2024 were down 3% from the previous week, but up 3% from the previous 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (7,900 mt), Mexico (5,700 mt) and Colombia (3,300 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
Feedlot managers were elated to see the strength and stamina of the board throughout the day as they continued to push their heels in the ground, waiting for packers to get anxious and off better bids. It was a quiet day in the cash cattle market as packers know that feedlot managers have their sights set on at least steady prices this week. A few bids in the North ($182 live and $288 dressed) were offered throughout the day but largely no cattle sold. There's a chance that traders could become anxious about Friday's afternoon Cattle on Feed report and pull back from the live cattle complex, but feedlot managers are hopeful that they're excitement over the support in the equity markets will be greater and that they'll support the contracts through the week's end -- time will tell. October live cattle closed $1.67 higher at $179.97, December live cattle closed $1.27 higher at $181.12 and February live cattle closed $1.27 higher at $182.35. Asking prices are noted at $184 to $185 in the South but are still not established in the North.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.82 ($299.56) and select down $1.49 ($288.26) with a movement of 170 loads (117.34 loads of choice, 23.18 loads of select, 5.19 loads of trim and 24.75 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given the uptick in slaughter pace, it's not out of line to think that feedlot managers could keep this week's cash market steady.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Between the positive boost of support from the equity markets reacting positively to the Feds announcement yesterday that they're going to decrease interest rates, to the live cattle contracts higher push – the feeder cattle market had all the support it needed throughout Thursday's trade. October feeders closed $3.82 higher at $243.77, November feeders closed $3.22 higher at $241.35 and January feeders closed $3.02 higher at $236.12. It was impressive to see the spot October contract close significantly higher than its 40-day moving average as that has been a threshold that's previously been too daunting for traders to tackle. But with enough technical support developing this week – traders charged beyond that resistance point and hopefully will keep the market trading higher. At La Junta, Livestock Commission in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week steers under 550 pounds sold $3.00 to $14.00 higher. Feeder steers over 550 pounds sold $2.00 to $12.00 lower with instances of sharply lower. Feeder heifers sold mostly $1.00 to $14.00 lower with instances of even lower. Slaughter bulls sold $14.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 33%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/18/2024: up $1.03, $244.42.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex rounded out the day mixed with its nearby contracts, able to keep their higher position, but the market's deferred contracts closed slightly lower. Today's higher end was largely a mixture of traders seeing the greater market's excitement over the Fed's announcement of decreasing interest rates, combined with slightly better interest in pork cutout values. It is worth noting too that the spot December contract is currently trading at the highest price point at which it's traded at since early June. October lean hogs are up $0.20 at $82.25, December lean hogs are up $0.42 at $74.30 and February lean hogs are up $0.32 at $77.32. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.39 with a weighted average price of $76.27 on 2,840 head. Pork cutouts totaled 323.70 loads with 303.32 loads of pork cuts and 20.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.40, $94.81. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 479,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/17/2024: steady, $84.22.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point it's safe to assume that packers have already boughten the vast majority of their needs for the week in the cash hog market and that Friday's market wasn't see much interest.
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