GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a fruitful day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets closed higher by the day's end thanks to ample trader interest. Once again, this week consumer demand will be key for both the cattle and hog markets as traders need to see stable consumer demand. December corn is up 11 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $9.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 55.99 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
It was another impressive day for the live cattle complex as the market was able to maintain its position above the market's 100-day moving average. October live cattle closed $0.77 higher at $183.25, December live cattle closed $0.62 higher at $183.82 and February live cattle closed $1.07 higher at $184.85. Monitoring the market's 100-day moving average and seeing the spot December contract remain above that threshold will be significant this week as any close below that price point will indicate technical weakness and the potential of a retreat. The market's next closest resistance point is that $188 which is where the market plateaued in July. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, somewhat higher in Kansas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 107,000 head -- 14,000 head less than a week ago and 18,000 head less than a year ago.
Last week Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $290 to $292 which is $2.00 to $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded for mostly $183 which is $2.00 to $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 86,956 head. Of that 89% (77,210 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 11% (9,746 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.62 ($301.81) and select down $0.80 ($287.79) with a movement of 97 loads (58.12 loads of choice, 21.15 loads of select, 3.99 loads of trim and 13.54 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that feedlots are extremely current, I believe that they should be able to hold the market at least steady this upcoming week.
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the continued support of the live cattle market's higher trend, the feeder cattle complex didn't have any issues closing higher Monday afternoon. October feeders closed $0.57 higher at $244.47, November feeders closed $0.97 higher at $242.75 and November feeders closed $0.97 higher at $242.75. So long as the live cattle complex continues to pave the way for feeders to trade higher, the market shouldn't have any issue doing so. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week and at their midsession point steers and heifers over 650 pounds were trading unevenly steady. Steers and heifers under 650 pounds were selling $1.00 to $5.00 lower. But the auction report did note that with a cool front spanning across the state and night temperatures dipping down into the 50-degree range would make getting unweaned calves started on feed difficult. The CME feeder cattle index 9/20/2024: up $0.24, $243.50.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex was also able to round out Monday's trade on a higher note as thankfully even though both pork cutout values and cash prices closed lower, traders supported the complex through the day's end. October lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $82.30, December lean hogs closed $0.65 higher at $74.87 and February lean hogs closed $0.85 higher at $78.40. I was surprised to see that with the belly's $5.51 gain that the carcass price wasn't able to close higher, but the mixture of the lower closes in the ham, picnic, loin and butt collectively outweighed the gain in the belly and rib combined. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.87 with a weighted average price of $75.01 on 735 head. Pork cutouts totaled 311.79 loads with 267.47 loads of pork cuts and 44.31 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.01, $94.14.
Monday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 12,000 head more than a week ago and 17,000 head more than a week ago. The CME lean hog index 9/19/2024: down $0.02, $84.36.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that Monday's cash market saw virtually no interest, it's likely that packers will need to be more aggressive on Monday.
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