GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a long day for the livestock complex as not much developed positively for the lean hog complex, and the cattle complex is still waiting to see what happens in this week's fed cash cattle market. There are bids of $218 to $220 currently being offered in the South but still no cattle have traded. July corn is down 3 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 256.02 points and the NASDAQ is down 188.52 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle up $3.58, August live cattle up $3.70; August feeder cattle up $2.77, September feeder cattle up $3.08, June lean hogs down $2.03, July lean hogs down $2.63; July corn up $0.16, September corn up $0.16.
LIVE CATTLE:
If you were sitting on pins and needles waiting to see what the week's cash cattle trade was going to amount to this week, you did so rightfully. At the time of this writing, still, no sizeable volume of cattle has traded in the South, and there have been no more dressed cattle sales besides what developed on Wednesday. On Wednesday afternoon in Nebraska, dressed sales ranged anywhere from $354 to $370, but mostly at $360, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Currently, bids of $218 to $220 are being offered in Kansas and Texas, but feedlot managers want more. Trade will likely develop at some point today, as packers don't want to be any more short-bought, but it's tough telling who's going to yield to time's pressure: packers or feedlot managers? My bet is that feedlot managers are going to get the upper hand again this week. June live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $215.80, August live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $210.45 and October live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $208.10.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 97,000 head, 8,000 head less than a week ago and 21,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 2,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 570,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 32,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.58 ($361.55) and select up $2.37 ($351.32) with a movement of 71 loads (49.56 loads of choice, 6.10 loads of select, 8.86 loads of trim and 6.70 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. It's tough telling what next week's trade is going to bring before this week's trade develops.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex powered through Friday's close as traders believed that the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report was going to be favorable to the cattle market and yes, yes it was. The biggest takeaway from Friday's report was by in large, the placement data. Placements in April of 2025 only totaled 1,613,000 million head -- that's the lightest monthly placement data the industry has seen since April 2020 when placements were vastly disturbed by the COVID outbreak. When looking back further in the data, beyond the market's disruption in 2020, the last time a single month saw placements below 1,600,000 head on any given month was back in January 2015. DTN's full Cattle on Feed commentary:
August feeders closed $0.60 higher at $300.37, September feeders closed $0.72 higher at $299.35 and October feeders closed $0.90 higher at $297.35. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary share that compared to last week feeder steers traded $3.00 to $5.00 lower, and steers weighing 600 to 700 pounds traded $8.00 to $12.00 lower. Feeder heifers traded $3.00 to $7.00 lower. Steer calves sold $10.00 to $15.00 lower and heifer calves sold $7.00 to $12.00 lower. Slaughter cows traded $2.00 to $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 76%. The CME feeder cattle index 5/22/2025: down $0.23, $295.46.
LEAN HOGS:
It was another lousy day for the lean hog complex as the market continued in its downward trend, unable to get traders to jump into the market and actively support the complex. June lean hogs closed $0.40 lower at $98.30, July lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $101.55 and August lean hogs closed $0.72 lower at $101.27. Pork cutout values may have closed over $1.00 higher, mainly thanks to the butt's $4.71 increase and the loin's $2.43 increase, but traders remained cautious nonetheless. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.43 with a weighted average price $94.86 on 2,026 head. Pork cutouts totaled 326.91 loads with 296.51 loads of pork cuts and 30.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.19, $101.46. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 424,000 head, 42,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 10,000 head. The CME lean hog index 5/21/2025: up $0.41, $92.75.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Following the long three-day weekend, packers may need more hogs early next week.
No comments:
Post a Comment