GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts endured an extremely pressuring day, but the lean hog complex closed higher. Not helping lend direction to the futures complex was the fact that the fed cash cattle market says prices trade anywhere from $1.00 lower to $2.00 higher. July corn is up 3 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 271.69 points and the NASDAQ is down 34.49 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 14,600 mt for 2025 were up 91% from the previous week and 21% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (4,500 mt), Japan (3,400 mt) and Mexico (2,600 mt). Pork net sales of 24,600 mt for 2025 were up 2% from the previous week and 16% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (10,600 mt), Japan (3,500 mt) and Canada (2,800 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The cattle complex has been anything but relaxed and ordinary over the last week, as earlier this week the market ran to new contract highs but then has been pressured ever since. And given the sheer price points in which the complex is currently trading, the obvious question that comes to mind whenever the market shows a little regression is: Is the market's top in, or is this another break in the rally until prices surge again? That question is one that we will all bounce around until time inevitably answers it for us. June live cattle closed $2.77 lower at $211.17, August live cattle closed $3.52 at $205.85 and October live cattle closed $3.82 lower at $202.67. Some light cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, where Southern live cattle traded at $218 to $220, which is $1.00 lower to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, but Northern dressed cattle traded at $358, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. The kicker about the Northern sales listed today was that many of them were committed for delivery for the week of June 2, which indicates that packers are strategically getting supply built up around them.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head, steady with a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.54 ($349.90) and select up $3.33 ($339.18) with a movement of 77 loads (54.16 loads of choice, 10.44 loads of select, 3.16 loads of trim and 8.79 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Even though the week's movement has been thin thus far, the week's prices are likely set for this week.
FEEDER CATTLE:
It's almost as if the feeder cattle complex saw the descent in the live cattle complex and said, "Oh, you want to see a knee-jerk reaction, watch this," as its contracts crumbled anywhere from $5.00 to $6.00 lower by Thursday's close. August feeders closed $6.15 lower at $295.82, September feeders closed $6.35 lower at $294.62 and October feeders closed $6.45 lower at $292.52. The market has filled in the gap that was created by the market's bounce on Monday, but the question remains: How much downside is the complex going to endure before traders feel comfortable supporting the contracts again? At Mitchell Livestock Auction in Mitchell, South Dakota, compared to last week, feeder steers up to 850 pounds traded with a lower undertone, but specifically steers weighing 900 to 950 pounds traded $6.00 lower. Feeder heifers up to 950 pounds sold with a lower undertone, but heifers weighing 950 to 1,000 pounds sold $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 97%. The CME feeder cattle index 5/14/2025: down $0.24, $302.17.
LEAN HOGS:
The cattle complex may have felt significant pressure throughout the day, but that didn't deter the lean hogs contracts from rallying higher. With cash prices, pork cutout values and the futures market all rounding out the day stronger, it was a win-win type of day for the complex. June lean hogs closed $1.85 higher at $100.700, July lean hogs closed $1.67 higher at $104.12 and August lean hogs closed $1.70 higher at $103.35. Most of the cuts closed higher on the afternoon pork cutout report, but the belly saw the biggest day-over-day increase with its $7.66 jump. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.18 with a weighted average price of $94.79 on 1,472 head. Pork cutouts totaled 259.01 loads, with 230.67 loads of pork cuts and 28.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.58, $99.72. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 5/13/2025: up $0.46, $90.77.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's looking like the bulk of this week's cash trade is done with.
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