GENERAL COMMENTS:
While the cattle complex is reverting its direction and trading sharply lower, the lean hog complex is trading boldly and has broken beyond resistance thresholds. Some light trade has developed in the fed cash cattle market, but prices are currently mixed. July corn is up 1 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 116.93 points and the NASDAQ is down 14.76 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 14,600 mt for 2025 were up 91% from the previous week and 21% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (4,500 mt), Japan (3,400 mt) and Mexico (2,600 mt). Pork net sales of 24,600 mt for 2025 were up 2% from the previous week and 16% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (10,600 mt), Japan (3,500 mt) and Canada (2,800 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
It's another lower-trending day for the live cattle complex as traders seem to be growing anxious that they've overly supported the market here lately. June live cattle are down $1.62 at $212.35, August live cattle are down $2.45 at $206.92 and October live cattle are down $2.62 at $203.87. Not helping the futures market's weakness is the mixed signaling from this week's fed cash cattle prices, as prices are currently trading steady/somewhat lower in the South but higher in the North. Live cattle in Texas are currently traded at $218, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average, but a few sales have been reported in Kansas at $220, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Meanwhile, dressed sales are being reported in Nebraska at $358, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. It is helpful, however, that boxed beef prices are higher today.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.88 ($350.24) and select up $2.97 ($338.82) with a movement of 44 loads (32.10 loads of choice, 5.32 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.24 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the live cattle complex lower push, the feeder cattle complex has reacted even more aggressively as it's currently trading mostly $4.00 lower into Thursday's noon hour. More than anything, today's move seems to be a sharp correction from traders' big push last week/early this week. May feeders are down $3.12 at $296.45, August feeders are down $4.27 at $297.70 and September feeders are down $4.42 at $296.55.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is bravely fronting a rally into Thursday's noon hour as the market pressures resistance thresholds that seemed too significant to challenge earlier in the week. But with a slightly improved export report and with pork cutout values a bit higher, traders are feeling encouraged to push the contracts higher. June lean hogs are up $1.17 at $100.02, July lean hogs are up $0.87 at $103.32 and August lean hogs are up $0.92 at $102.57.
The projected lean hog index for 5/14/2025 is up $0.24 at $91.02 and the actual index for 5/13/2025 is up $0.46 at $90.77. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality; however, we can see that only 345 head have traded this morning, and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $94.17.
Pork cutouts total 142.25 loads, with 124.45 loads of pork cuts and 17.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.01, $99.15.
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