GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is rocking and rolling as all three of the markets are trading higher. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states. May corn is up 2 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 915.57 points and NASDAQ is up 659.77 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is thrilled to be trading even higher Monday as the announcement that Mexican cattle imports have again been halted because of the continued spread of New World screwworm (NWS) has sent the contracts notably higher. But what's potentially most interesting to note about the contracts just before Monday's noon hour is that it isn't the immediate/nearby contracts that are seeing the biggest gains -- it's the late spring/early summer 2026 contracts that are seeing the biggest daily push as they're currently trading over $2.00 higher. Which is likely because traders recognize that supplies may be thin now, but they're going to be even tighter next year at this time. June live cattle are up $1.90 at $216.55, August live cattle are up $1.85 at $211.42 and October live cattle are up $1.67 at $208.62. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states.
Last week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $219 to $220, which is $1.00 to $2.00 higher than the prior week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $355, which is $6.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.
Monday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 2025. Beef production for 2025 was decreased as larger carcass weights are more than offsetting the decrease in production in terms of the number of head processed. Beef production for 2025 was decreased by 277 million pounds compared to a month ago. Compared to last month's estimates, the quarterly price projections were changed drastically upon seeing the recent price uptick in the fed cash cattle market. Steers in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $217 (up $13 from last month), steers in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $216 (up $10 from last month) and steers in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $220 (up $13 from last month). Beef imports were increased by 212 million pounds compared to last month's estimates (and yes, this report does take into account the ban on Mexican cattle imports currently), but beef exports were decreased by 22 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.95 ($347.92) and select up $2.60 ($333.77) with a movement of 69 loads (46.08 loads of choice, 3.85 loads of select, 4.38 loads of trim and 14.70 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Upon being given the opportunity to trade the announcement that Mexican cattle imports will be halted for 15 days because of the continued spread of New World screwworm, traders didn't waste any time gapping the feeder cattle contracts higher at Monday's start.
May feeders are up $3.60 at $301.57, August feeders are up $4.25 at $304.55 and September feeders are up $4.27 at $303.30. Even without the added market buzz surrounding the boarder closure, it's likely that the feeder cattle complex would have traded at least steady following last week's bullish gains. However, this breaking news has obviously grabbed the markets and traders' full attention.
LEAN HOGS:
Although, the cattle complex is seeing the greatest advancement, the lean hog complex is currently trading higher as well. June lean hogs are up $0.77 at $98.32, July lean hogs are up $1.80 at $102.22 and August lean hogs are up $1.75 at $100.87. The market still isn't comfortable facing its resistance pressure around the $100 market in the spot June contract -- but even so, the market still is trading higher and has even more room to trade higher before that threshold becomes an issue.
The projected lean hog index for 5/9/2025 is down $0.07 at $89.92 and the actual index for 5/8/2025 is down $0.08 at $89.99. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.45 with a weighted average price of $94.33, ranging from $88.00 to $98.00 on 2,466 head and a five-day rolling average of $94.12. Pork cutouts totaled 168.15 loads with 152.91 loads of pork cuts and 15.24 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.49, $97.34.
Monday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog and pork markets of 2025. Pork production for 2025 was decreased by 79 million pounds as processing speeds in the second half of the year aren't expected to be as aggressive. Hog prices also saw an increase from last month's projections as hogs in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $68 (up $5.00 from last month), hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $71 (up $6.00 from last month) and hogs in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $60 (up $4.00 from last month). Pork imports for 2025 were increased by 15 million pounds, and pork exports for 2025 were increased by 103 million pounds.
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