GENERAL COMMENTS:
Thus far, it's been a mostly supportive morning for the livestock complex as all three of the markets are trading mostly higher at midday Thursday. Again, there's been a light movement of cattle in the North, but no trade has developed in the South. December corn is up 6 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 227.26 points and the NASDAQ is down 107.03 points.
Thursday's export report shared that Beef net sales of 10,100 mt for 2025 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 11% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,500 mt), Hong Kong (2,400 mt) and South Korea (1,600 mt). Pork net sales of 19,200 mt for 2025 were down 9% from the previous week and 29% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (5,300 mt), South Korea (4,000 mt) and Japan (2,600 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
Following Wednesday's massive surge in the futures complex, the live cattle complex is trading mostly steady, seeming unsure of what it should do next. It remains incredibly supportive that boxed beef prices are continuing to trend higher, but the market has yet to really see what this week's trend is going to be in the fed cash cattle complex. There's been a light movement in the North at $245, which is steady to a tick higher than last week's weighted average, but the market hasn't seen enough trade, or any trade in the South, to say that it confidently knows what this week's trend is going to be. Regardless, it's anticipated that prices will trade at least steady if not a bit higher again this week simply because feedlot managers possess enough leverage in the marketplace to be able to roll their showlists over if prices aren't what they want. From a technical standpoint, it's impressive to see that futures contracts are trading mostly steady (with some of the nearby contracts just below steady, and most of the deferred contracts slightly above steady) as traders want to support the complex more but also don't want to overdo anything.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.28 ($408.13) and select up $1.55 ($384.71) with a movement of 46 loads (29.92 loads of choice, 5.59 loads of select, 5.66 loads of trim and 4.71 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is continuing to trade mostly higher into Thursday's noon hour as traders are seeing plenty of support. Support from feeder cattle sales in the countryside, support from strong boxed beef demand, support from the light movement that the fed cash cattle complex has seen already this week, and, as of this point this week, total support from traders. September feeders are down $0.27 at $357.82, October feeders are up $0.20 at $357.87 and November feeders are up $0.32 at $356.40.
LEAN HOGS:
Although pork cutout values may be down slightly, and the week's export report wasn't overly supportive, the lean hog complex is trading mostly higher into Thursday's noon hour as traders have seemed to find some footing in the futures complex. October lean hogs are down $0.20 at $89.75, December lean hogs are up $0.05 at $83.02 and February lean hogs are up $0.22 at $86.10. The bulk of this week's cash hog trade is likely done, so any fundamental support is going to need to come from cutout values, and this morning the carcass price was down slightly.
The projected lean hog index for 8/20/2025 is down $0.25 at $108.32, and the actual index for 8/19/2025 is down $0.49 at $108.57. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.50 with a weighted average price of $107.34, ranging from $106.00 to $111.00 on 995 head and a five-day rolling average of $109.69. Pork cutouts total 129.69 loads with 112.53 loads of pork cuts and 17.16 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.35, $112.66.
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