GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's been a tumultuous morning for the livestock contracts as though fundamental support remains strong for the cattle contracts and adequate for the lean hog complex, the contracts are panicky, and traders have elected to send them sharply lower. Bids are currently on the table in both regions, but no new trade has developed. December corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 214.58 points and NASDAQ is down 43.15 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 4,300 mt for 2025 -- a marketing year low -- were down 73% from the previous week and 66% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (3,200 mt), South Korea (500 mt) and the Philippines (500 mt). Pork net sales of 21,200 mt for 2025 were down 32% from the previous week and 19% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (6,500 mt), Mexico (4,700 mt) and South Korea (3,500 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
Even though the live cattle complex was grateful to close higher Wednesday afternoon and see fed cash cattle prices trade higher in the North. The market is struggling this morning as the week's export report was lousy and traders are holding their breath, waiting to see if the complex falls below last Friday's close, which would be a bearish technical signal.
October lean hogs are down $3.25 at $226.20, December live cattle are down $3.65 at $227.75 and February live cattle are down $4.05 at $228.52. Last Friday, the market traded as low as $225.60, which will be the threshold we need to continue to monitor throughout the day. A few cash bids are on the table as live bids are being offered at $233 in Texas. Live bids are being offered in Nebraska at $245, but no trade has developed yet following Wednesday's movement in the Nebraska where dressed cattle were trading at $385, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.78 ($393.27) and select up $0.67 ($368.63) with a movement of 67 loads (40.55 loads of choice, 10.77 loads of select, 12.31 loads of trim and 2.95 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
And as one would logically expect, the feeder cattle complex is also trading lower after seeing the live cattle contracts duck and run. Traders believed that was the best route to send the feeder cattle contracts as well. Again, this decision is solely one being made on technical indications as demand in the countryside remains nearly unfathomable for feeder cattle. It's looking like the fed cash cattle market may be able to trade cattle for higher money this week, but time will tell. September feeders are down $7.30 at $339.20, October feeders are down $6.97 at $338.65 and November feeders are down $6.97 at $336.62.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is trading lower as well into Thursday's noon hour as traders remain displeased about the morning's export report and aren't finding the morning's fundamental support to be sufficient enough to keep steady. October lean hogs are down $1.95 at $88.82, December lean hogs are down $1.67 at $81.37 and February lean hogs are down $1.75 at $83.97. The cutout's biggest problem this morning was the $4.96 decline in the picnic.
The projected lean hog index for 8/13/2025 is up $0.04 at $109.83 and the actual index for 8/12/2025 is down $0.06 at $109.78. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.48 with a weighted average price of $110.58, ranging from $102.00 to $114.00 on 6,610 head and a five-day rolling average of $109.67. Pork cutouts total 143.04 loads with 130.84 loads of pork cuts and 12.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.34, $116.16.
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